Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[Staffordshire]

Credit to estofex though, they have plaved the level 3 very well and therefore gave everyone in the path of that beast a warning, anyone know how to spell thunderstorm in french/dutch/german so i can look on youtube this afternoon, cheers

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Failing that there's always tomorrow

 

Yep the real good benefit of any doubt of today. Tomorrow and indeed Monday are looking like real good countrywide convective days. One of them sferic dartboard days!! 

[NOAJOA]

really humid here..unusual for the coast!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Did you get one? :-)

It would appear so! 1 point. No idea what for I haven't been around here much LOL. Prehaps thats why! :-D

[pinball wizard]

Here is my current suggested path if the French MCS takes the same course - which of course it may not do.

 

Screen Shot 2013-07-27 at 11.15.56.png

 

Screen Shot 2013-07-27 at 11.16.22.png

 

Screen Shot 2013-07-27 at 11.17.07.png

 

All courtesy of the wonder NW extra. 

 

If you haven't got it, then get it!

 

Could be good for Kent, and then coastal areas of Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk - that would tie in with some of the BBC graphics too.

[NOAJOA]

so am I right in saying that the third batch of activity cooking up in biscay right now is the one to watch for activity from the IOW east?

[Buzzard]

Down at folks place in Poole, off for a very sweaty run I would have thought. Looks like a line of showers that have just popped up in the channel south of Devon will be coming our way.

Or that big Bertha could come more north than NE!!

Whatever happens, bound to be better than the damp squib of last week at home!

[The PIT]

I wouldn't write anything off yet but it's behind schedule already. We should  know in a few hours though if it's dead duck. God to admit the met office warning is either poorly worded or written in a manner which allows them to be right whatever happens. Are the isolated Thunderstorms in the batch from France or in the possible new area rain which may develop or not? 

[cheese]

Revised Met Office warnings now include parts of northern England:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1374879600

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nothing incredible, but some pics I caught in the last hour (South Tipperary)

 

  

[Harry]

Credit to estofex though, they have plaved the level 3 very well and therefore gave everyone in the path of that beast a warning, anyone know how to spell thunderstorm in french/dutch/german so i can look on youtube this afternoon, cheers

Think the Level 3 is for today's developments not last night/this morning (sorry btw if I've misunderstood your post and that's not what you were implying!)

[john w]

Have got to say its tantalising watching the developments on rain today. I always worry here that we are in a belt that only seems to do really well out of storms when they are either home grown, or you get a perfect setup and northerlies to get incoming stuff from France (mainly because there is more channel to cross if it comes due south, as well as several topographic features (south downs/north downs).

 

Rain today shows rain cells over Ireland and South of Exeter at the moments having a distinctive North component. I look out my window and see some very high cirrus (and as I type this a red kite) going north north east. The cell over near Caen/Jersey seems to also be NNE as opposed to NE.

 

Tomorrows CAPE etc has my patch (Reading/East Berks/West London) in an area of relatively low energy compared to the rest of the UK.

 

I still think we will see something good, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if we miss some stuff here. But, at present I would say the cell coming off france (unless it weakens in the channel) looks good for Kent, Sussex and the south east corner, poss even south east London.

[Cornishdave]

I live in Exeter, Devon, going by the rainfall prediction it will not hit Devon or Cornwall, we will only get a little rain this evening, skimming us Im a little dissapointed as this happens alot In the winter with the good snow.But you never know, it may budge a little west....Lets hope we all see something the next few days.....I am by no means an expert but is that a 'Bow Echo' in northern France? Wow so close, I wonder if that would ever happen here?

i'm in exeter too, fingers crossed as ive peered at the radar relentlesly for the last couple weeks watching everyone else get storms apart from us!

[Supacell]

Met Office Chief forecasters assessment, make of it what you will. My take on it is I am not going to spend petrol money travelling to the SE anymore, looks like the Midlands has just as much chance. Not because the chances in the Midlands have increased but because the severe stuff for the SE now looks to miss us

 

"Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over France and then move northwards to affect many parts of England during the second half of Saturday and early on Sunday. Although there remains some uncertainty concerning the extent of these heavy showers and thunderstorms, there is an increasing signal for a band of heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms to move north to affect central southern England, the Midlands and then northern England. Some heavy thundery rain is also expected to affect SE England and East Anglia during Saturday afternoon and evening although the risk of severe thunderstorms extending north from France, giving frequent lightning, torrential rain and squally winds has reduced. Rainfall amounts will vary considerably, but there is again scope for 30 mm of rain to fall within an hour and 50 mm or more in less than 3 hours"

 

Still time for change yet though. As many have said, this will come down to observations once the area of rain and storms actually begins to approach and develop over us.

[Summer Sun]

North east England is now in the clear certainly a downgrade for the rain up here today still under a warning for tomorrow

Edited July 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[cheese]

Nothing incredible, but some pics I caught in the last hour (South Tipperary)

 

  

Better than anything I've seen this year. The thundery rain we had on Wednesday was accompanied by mist and a low cloud base, so no structures were visible.

[Summer Sun]

Amazing how there is still uncertainty with just under 12 hours till the warning comes into affect

 

Although there remains some uncertainty concerning the extent of these heavy showers and thunderstorms, there is an increasing signal for an area of heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms to move north to affect eastern and northern England and southeast Scotland

[Harry]

Indeed... We're moving now so I can try and intercept what's leaving France now as its reading more and more like my only shout at the moment.

Toodles - good luck all!!!

Edited July 27, 2013 by Harry

[Staffordshire]

Think the Level 3 is for today's developments not last night/this morning (sorry btw if I've misunderstood your post and that's not what you were implying!)

no you read it correct Harry, i thought the level three was for this morning, but jesus imagine the storms later on then!

[texel]

Exmouth webcam may be worth a watch today.

http://www.exmouthcam.co.uk/webcam/

[carinthian]

Hi,

just back from a walk up Cissbury Ring with a good view above Worthing . Looking south and scanning the horizon between Beachy Head and the IOW, presently little sign of any disturbances. Indeed looking towards Dieppe and east lots of blue sky with some cirrus stratus. Further west of the IOW can just make out some thicker medium level cloud, this could be from the storm over Normandy coastline. Currently very warm here on the coast with about 5/8th shallow percolated medium level cloud. will continue to scan the horizon from the beach front.

c

[The PIT]

Lunch time forecast really put the nail in the coffin for any widespread storms tonight just mentioning the odd flash lightning possible. Instead the focus was on heavy rain. Local forecast didn't even mention lightning at all but then did say the afternoon would be wet and then in the next breath said it would be mostly dry until evening.

All eyes on tomorrow then.

[Methuselah]

El Dampo Squibio? 

[Bobby]

Remember that this is coming from a deepening low, as it deepens it will swing Northwards and probably eventually NW. Depends a lot on how much/quickly it deepens. A deeper low will bring more Western areas into play, although just heavy rain. A weaker low will mean things will be more focused towards the East.

 

Radar is showing some intense looking stuff heading up to the SW. Don't you dare swing East! even if it's just some heavy rain. Better than nowt. The Met Office map looks to be the most accurate so far

Edited July 27, 2013 by Bobby

[Supacell]

NMM quite promising for the East Midlands later with some SBCAPE and very heavy precipitation along with wind convergence - Derby/Notts could be in with a shout again if that came off.

 

Next Thursday night our next chance for a plume, and that looks a good one with temperatures into the low 30's possible again on Thursday. Of course, that is a huge distance in convective forecasting, considering 6 hours is a struggle to forecast.