Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[Harry]

My parents have a holiday caravan down there - will PM you if I head up to he Coast

[Adi F]

My parents have a holiday caravan down there - will PM you if I head up to he Coast

Text me I will pm my number across now 

[Staffordshire]

Roger, is that zone likely to shift depending on future developments or is the system youre expecting to cause that already formed?

[mackerel sky]

Much warmer here than they said it would be today under clear skies. Already 26C - surely 29C isn't out of the question. Humidity makes it feel quite oppressive in the sun. That only has to fan the fire for later surely? In the meantime, time to cut the grass.

[Buckster]

feels very humid and warm here in Essex

[lewisosd]

Might get myself down to Felixstowe tonight or should I stay further inland near bury st edmunds?. Looking for some lightning shots tonight. What are your thoughts

[Harry]

Much warmer here than they said it would be today under clear skies. Already 26C - surely 29C isn't out of the question. Humidity makes it feel quite oppressive in the sun. That only has to fan the fire for later surely? In the meantime, time to cut the grass.

Same here mate, car is showing 29C which I think is slightly overlooking it....26-27C more realistic - either way blue skies, rising humidity....what more could you want

[phil nw.]

I don't see any downgrade in the setup at all, the fact that the leading wave missed to the east is beside the point as the event was always expected to be the developing wave over France. With temps in central France above 30 C and signs of subsidence aloft over south central England (7-10 C dp) the future evolution is fairly obvious, wave will rapidly destabilize after crossing Channel and the climatology of these types of events is usually an overnight rainfall max just to the west and north of the developing low, which suggests heaviest rain for the east Midlands. A secondary region of moderate rain will be found west of the main band through inland Wales, Severn valley extending into Lancs.

 

My prediction for 24h amounts (mostly 6h as it works out) would be

 

50-100 mm east Midlands, Yorkshire with slight risk of 125-150 mm localized amounts

25-50 mm east Anglia, Kent, greater London

20-35 mm east Wales, Severn valley, Lancs, also later into northeast England, southeast Scotland

15-30 mm Thames valley inland south central

 

Also expect this to become very intense for lightning by the overnight hours. This event will release the considerable charge built up over 3-4 weeks of dry weather in many locations.

 

Research shows a strong energy peak at 03-04h overnight so would speculate the most intense thunderstorms will be in a zone from western Kent east London northwest through Cambs into Notts, Lincs and southeast Yorkshire.

 

The very least I would expect is about half this intensity which would still be a significant storm event for many. Map shows the expected pattern, should verify at multiples of 15 mm so about 75 mm for the red zone, 60 mm for the purple, etc.

 

 

Thanks for that Roger it looks like if you are anywhere near correct i am in for a large overnight rainfall total and perhaps some thunder and lightening.

Looking at the latest Euro radar a developing area of storms is showing moving towards us across the Brest area of NW France.

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true&ra=true&region=eu

 

plenty of lightening strikes already apparent.

 

Edited July 27, 2013 by phil nw.

[Adi F]

SnowMania are you still on here? If so Check you PM's and PM me. 

 

[Evening thunder]

Think I could have just heard thunder! not sure but sounded like it from in my bedroom with the window open. next quite high based shower is grazing me now.

[big_treacle]

Overcast and feeling very humid here in Poole. Come on storms!!

[ryan93]

If I'm right brighton an hove looks to get hit very soon

[Dean E]

Same here mate, car is showing 29C which I think is slightly overlooking it....26-27C more realistic - either way blue skies, rising humidity....what more could you want

 

Weather station currently reporting 27c here in what was mostly sunny skies, now turning cloudy and very humid

 

SM

[TheToastPeople]

Thats a Huge area of rain leaving the bay of Biscay, Possibly one of the most exciting sat24 runs i have seen in a long while! Gunna have a hard time topping the lightning we had here the other day though.. Good luck everyone!

[Dan the Man]

That Caen cell is only about 60 miles from the South coast now, if only the system could back about 10 degrees for an absolute direct hit for all of the SE.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Dan the Man

[Neilsouth]

The sun is out which is rising temps and humidity, great for storms!

[Buckster]

feels more humid than last week

[Harry]

Really struggling to see the storm over the Channel...think I can make out robust anvil edges but its very hazy indeed that direction (currently in Ashford btw)

Edited July 27, 2013 by Harry

[Buckster]

just looked at XCWeather - big differences in humidity between most of South and the S-East

 

S-East, London etc reporting dewpoints of 16-18C

 

elsewhere 7-11C

[A.J]

Think I could have just heard thunder! not sure but sounded like it from in my bedroom with the window open. next quite high based shower is grazing me now.

thunder also reported in Axminster so more than likely!

[Anvils in the Sky]

The Bognor Regis webcam might be worth watching. (If you hover your cursor over the image, you get the full screen option. Better than the postage stamp!)

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

[BornFromTheVoid]

Torrential rain in south Tipperary again. Just waiting to hear the first rumble!

[nanu]

That Caen cell is only about 60 miles from the South coast now, if only the system could back about 10 degrees for an absolute direct hit for all of the SE.

and looks like decaying

[chapmanslade]

Very much a NNE trajectory for the stuff in the Channel so will run further west than may have been thought.

I would say thundery as far west as Bristol / Bath rain to the west of that.

[Bobby]

Looks to me the main area over Biscay/Britanny is moving more N than the NE the models predicted. I don't see much NE movement?

 

A cell looks like it will be hitting here soon. Skies going dark to the S.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Bobby