South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 24/8/13 ------------>

[Crepuscular Ray]

A remarkable late turnaround here as the clouds parted around 5pm. Clear blue skies and the merucury has just hit 26c in this neck of the woods.

Same here.

 

Edit: except that it clouded over again almost as soon as I posted that.

Edited September 3, 2013 by Crepuscular Ray

[john pike]

hi all

 

not sure if this is an error or not

 

the updated fax chart for thursday

 

does not show poss 30 degress

 

it shows heavy rain

 

either this is wrong or expect some big forecast changes later on or tomorrow for thursday

Edited September 3, 2013 by john pike

[Methuselah]

I could certainly do with some rain, John!

[john pike]

hi abns

 

you will see some fri sat and sunday

 

bit confused re thursday as bbc said possible 30 degrees and dry

 

its not what the fax shows

[Captain Shortwave]

hi all

 

not sure if this is an error or not

 

the updated fax chart for thursday

 

does not show poss 30 degress

 

it shows heavy rain

 

either this is wrong or expect some big forecast changes later on or tomorrow for thursday

The fax chart which I assume is the same as the raw output is similar to the GFS which shows 28C widespread across the south east

Also shows it's dry

 

So does the raw UKMO output

Edited September 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Eskimo]

hi all

 

not sure if this is an error or not

 

the updated fax chart for thursday

 

does not show poss 30 degress

 

it shows heavy rain

 

either this is wrong or expect some big forecast changes later on or tomorrow for thursday

It looks like a heat low John but it doesn't always mean it will rain nor be cloudy....I hope lol. 

I reckon it will be clear in the morning and gradually as that heat low establishes, it will get hazier. 

Edited September 3, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Snowangel-MK]

 ... Equally you could pray for an Indian Summer

 

by coincidence I saw this earlier ........

 

 

 

What is an ‘Indian summer’?

 

After a warm, dry, sunny summer, the fine weather is continuing this week with temperature expected to reach 28 to 29 °C in the southeast on Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Many media reports are calling this an ‘Indian summer’, however according to the Met Office’s Meteorological Glossary, it’s a little too early in the year. An Indian summer is defined as a warm, calm spell of weather occurring after the first frost in autumn, especially in October and November.

 

William R Deedler, Weather Historian at the United States National Weather Service, describes it as “any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or even early Novemberâ€.

 

The origins of the term Indian summer are uncertain, but several writers suggest it may be have been based on the warm, hazy conditions in autumn when native American Indians chose to hunt. The earliest record of the use of the term is in America at the end of the 18th century. Although William R Deedler also refers to a reference by a French man, John de Crevecoeur, in 1778:

 

“Sometimes the rain is followed by an interval of calm and warmth which is called the Indian Summer; its characteristics are a tranquil atmosphere and general smokiness. Up to this epoch the approaches of winter are doubtful; it arrives about the middle of November, although snows and brief freezes often occur long before that date.â€

 

The term was first used in the British Isles at the beginning of the 19th century, but there is no statistical evidence to show that such a warm spell tends to recur each year. The warmest recorded temperatures in the UK in October and November are 29.9 °C on 1 October 2011, in Kent, and 21.1 °C on 2 November 1938, in Essex and Suffolk.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/what-is-an-indian-summer-2/

[john pike]

the fax chart is produced seperate to gfs and ukmo

 

i have seen them differ but not to this extent at 2 days

 

that chart would not be dry however we will see what the forecasters say later and i am not sure what to make of this

 

remember the fax charts come out later than gfs and ukmo hence the 17.14 timestamp

[Captain Shortwave]

the fax chart is produced seperate to gfs and ukmo

 

i have seen them differ but not to this extent at 2 days

 

that chart would not be dry however we will see what the forecasters say later and i am not sure what to make of this

 

remember the fax charts come out later than gfs and ukmo hence the 17.14 timestamp

Well I trust your interpretation, really strange, even looked at the NAE and that doesn't show a low like that, also has no rainfall on Thursday.

Scratch that it is the raw UKMO

No rain predicted

Edited September 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

Well I trust your interpretation, really strange, even looked at the NAE and that doesn't show a low like that, also has no rainfall on Thursday.

 

hi captain its odd

 

maybe its totally wrong and with the other data i think it is

 

the updated forecasts for the fax should be after 9.30 tonight on bbc

[Anvils in the Sky]

A remarkable late turnaround here as the clouds parted around 5pm. Clear blue skies and the merucury has just hit 26c in this neck of the woods.

Glad it eventually cleared up for you. The clouds melted away here around that time too - except for one single, solitary little clump which blocked out the sun right where I am. And followed it all the way down to the horizon. And then fizzled into nothing within minutes of the sun setting! Amazing.

 

So, anyway, a single digit number of minutes of sunshine here today from mid-late morning onwards. Not expected, and most certainly not forecast. Bit disappointing really. But, hey, tomorrow's another day...

[john pike]

will the triangle succomb to the possibility of storms on friday

 

 

[BLUNT]

Could be very interesting on Friday looks like the cold air undercutting the hot air rappidly, on the otherside the hot air bulging northwards could well be a deep Low forming where the two meet, am i reading the charts correctly?

[Captain Shortwave]

will the triangle succomb to the possibility of storms on friday

 

 

Probably no storms but the possibility of some torrential rain like we saw a couple of Saturdays back

[john pike]

Could be very interesting on Friday looks like the cold air undercutting the hot air rappidly, on the otherside the hot air bulging northwards could well be a deep Low forming where the two meet, am i reading the charts correctly?

 

 

 

 

 

hi blunt

 

correct

 

also this set up in winter with cold air set in would be melt down in here

 

i can dream cant i ?

Edited September 3, 2013 by john pike

[BLUNT]

The other week when we had the torrential rain  I noticed in the rain belt very low cumulus developing and moving  really fast within the cloud, anybody know how these are formed and how they are developed?

[john pike]

Probably no storms but the possibility of some torrential rain like we saw a couple of Saturdays back

 

Probably no storms but the possibility of some torrential rain like we saw a couple of Saturdays back

 

blasted computer

 

a slim chance according to the cape via gfs

 

although unstable airmass may set off the odd rumble or 2

 

all depends where that low ends up

 

it could miss us completely as well

[john pike]

hi blunt

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud

 

may help

[abruzzi spur]

Nipped outside about an hour ago whilst there was still a hint of daylight and the detail of the garden was still identifiable without artificial light. It felt, and smelt, like high summer - a deep warmth to the air, stars just making their debuts, the scent of gardens recently watered. It was only on looking closely that the signs of Autumn were there - berries on the Rowan a bit darker, slightly fuller and heavier than last week, the faintest tinge of fading green or emerging gold on the leaves of the white birch and the Gleditsia, the absence of the Swifts that in the hot days of July would have been wheeling and screaming as they cartwheeled and climbed against the darkening night. I found the while thing stupidly moving - loving what I was seeing but wishing it wasn't so, really wanting summer to last forever the way it promised it would when we were 10.

Ah well, come winter I won't want the frost to melt, nor the snows to retreat, nor the gales to let up their howling in the chimneys, nor the fire to ever go out. I probably need to decide what I really want, but I like how I can be captivated by the best of whatever is on offer.

AS

Edited September 3, 2013 by abruzzi spur

[BLUNT]

Thanks for that but these cumulus developed in the actual frontal rain itself they developed and were really aggressive black and extremely low, moving at incredible speed like a micro climate had formed them and when they developed within ten minutes it really tipped down

[Eskimo]

Thanks for that but these cumulus developed in the actual frontal rain itself they developed and were really aggressive black and extremely low, moving at incredible speed like a micro climate had formed them and when they developed within ten minutes it really tipped down

Was it scud?  

[john pike]

fax update

 

tomorrow

 

a weak south to south westerly flow and dry

 

poss mist again in the morning effecting rural and coastal areas

 

temps between 25-27 degrees

 

thursday

 

not sure

 

friday

 

still uncertain on low track

 

it looks like v heavy rain for all and where the heavier bursts appear there could be the odd rumble or 2

 

temps somewhere around 20 degrees and poss a tad higher the further north east you go

 

will update the rest when out

Edited September 3, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

just had to catch a big spider

 

and chuck it outside

 

it was BIG

 

time of year now when these creepy crawlies come out

 

[john pike]

saturday

 

all subject to low track

 

windy south west flow

 

heavy rain around but at present the heavier bits are north of the region we will see more heavier showers rather than persistant rain

 

 

temps around 20 degrees

 

sunday

 

a south westerly flow

 

showers around and some heavy

 

temps somewhere around 20 degrees

 

ukmo at 144

 

wet

[BLUNT]

Fed up with huge spiders at present one evening had three huge ones come in, they seem to know the weather is changing ie rain, getting colder etc, I hate spiders i run out the room bought a spider catcher, the cat is useless she just watches them run around the room and then play dead when she is going to do something