Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Would be interested to see whether the Polar vortex shows it's hand in the coming months or whether it will just remain stuck over the Pacific/Siberian side. ECM tonight is quite striking with Western Europe still in late summer/Early Autumn warmth whilst Russia and Scandinavia are already being becoming cold.

October is really the turning point and is where we see the real cold starting to peep over the horizon. Hopefully that cold pool over Scandi will keep on intensifying and make itself established throughout Autumn, then go in for the kill on the UK in late November/December

I must also mention, I really think the sleepy hurricane season will help blocking as its less fuel for the jetstream. Chances are in my eyes looking good for a colder than average winter to say the least.

Edited September 22, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[feb1991blizzard]

I posted in the Autumn thread in late August of my thoughts for the coming winter before

this winter thread was up and running.Basically I was quitely confident of a severe

winter for Europe and the uk (at least two winter months with a CET below 1c).

One month on and if anything I am even more confident of a 78-79 type winter but would

not be at all surprised to see something even colder than this.

Winter should certainly show its hand in November with more prolonged cold,and at times

bitterly cold weather from mid December on through into March with some breaks at times

before the northerly blocking re-establishes itself.

I wasn't very confident because of the +QBO but lately listening to other more informed posters and the fact that ENSO neutral is a strong possibility has made me grow a little in confidence. not enough to start shouting from the rooftops yet but......

[Summer Sun]

The long range Brazilian Model covers the period of November to January and its shows temperatures slight above the anomaly

 

 

Rain is average UK wide

 

 

The Meteorological Center Of Russia model which covers October to December also has above average temperature

 

Rainfall is above average as well

 

[Yarmy]

The long range Brazilian Model covers the period of November to January and its shows temperatures slight above the anomaly

 

 

Rain is average UK wide

 

 

The Meteorological Center Of Russia model which covers October to December also has above average temperature

 

Rainfall is above average as well

 

To be honest, there's only one kind of Brazilian model I'd bother looking at.

[Dancerwithwings]

Every now and then CFS keeps showing February to be the coldest month of winter and thats what we have this afternoon

December

High pressure sets up to our NE keeping us settled, very dry and chilly especially in the south with low pressure across Greenland

January

Blocking extends from east to west in January setting up across Greenland with high pressure also extending up from Spain. With pressure staying high rainfall is no worse than average for some eastern parts with the west and more so south west remaining very dry

February

Now its February when we see northern blocking taking hold fully across Greenland as a result temperatures tumble rain fall (more like snow given the temps) is highest in the south and east and lowest in the west of Scotland and Ireland

Of course non of this can be taken seriously yet however its not the first time February has been shown to be the coldest month of winter and potentially the snowiest

Regarding towards your very good worked post http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-50#entry2792941

As you said"course non of this can be taken seriously yet"...... and so right you are but however you also said

"February has been shown to be the coldest month of winter and potentially the snowiest"

with cold in place Dec/Jan could also see potential SNOW ,But it's all to see !!!

And yes deep cold through out europe is firmly and set in it's ways by Jan/ Feb and looking at them charts the uk will could be a big part of that,

From a true brummie ((( Them charts look bang on and BOSTIN )))

[Don]

The long range Brazilian Model covers the period of November to January and its shows temperatures slight above the anomaly

 

 

Rain is average UK wide

 

 

The Meteorological Center Of Russia model which covers October to December also has above average temperature

 

Rainfall is above average as well

 

 

With warmer than average temperatures over Greenland on the Brazilian model would imply high pressure there so above average temperatures for the UK looks a little suspect to me? 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With warmer than average temperatures over Greenland on the Brazilian model would imply high pressure there so above average temperatures for the UK looks a little suspect to me? 

Indeed, I'm failing to see the logic there too. I wouldn't trust that model at all though, and all of them will no doubt chop and change their outputs as we get nearer the time.

[DAVID SNOW]

To be honest, there's only one kind of Brazilian model I'd bother looking at.

 

Yes the Brazilian model is worth looking at, although it does  often show some rather warm and wet  outlooks, it can often change to(almost overnight) to a more  dryer solution the following day, this may be caused by the shaving of the rain forests.

[Gaz1985]

Yes the Brazilian model is worth looking at, although it does  often show some rather warm and wet  outlooks, it can often change to(almost overnight) to a more  dryer solution the following day, this may be caused by the shaving of the rain forests.

 

What with? a mach 3 tree harvester? lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes the Brazilian model is worth looking at, although it does  often show some rather warm and wet  outlooks, it can often change to(almost overnight) to a more  dryer solution the following day, this may be caused by the shaving of the rain forests.

 

lmao

[Mark Neal.]

no 5 rings no bells? must have missed out, but got snow on others

Found some pictures on my phone! From radar at the time and Local news!

Edited September 22, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Buriedundersnow]

snow cover looks to be making an early start this year compared to previous years

 

2009

 

 

2010

 

 

2011

 

 

2012

 

 

this year

 

 

and with the forecast 850's from GFS and ECM for the next week or so looking good if they come off then we might see the snow cover extend a fair bit over the next week or so

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

Edited September 23, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Relativistic]

Well to see 2010 as the most similar year to this year in terms of current NH snowcover can't be a bad thing!

Edited September 23, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Yarmy]

Well to see 2010 as the most similar year to this year in terms of current NH snowcover can't be a bad thing!

 

The thing is that 2009 looked awful, yet that brought frozen Britain from mid-Dec onwards.

 

Having said that, out of all the indicators NH snow cover (especially to our East) is the one I pay some attention to because it makes the most sense to me (certainly instead of worrying about how many spots you can count on the Sun today). Let's get as much solar radiation reflecting straight back into space as possible. In addition, HP sitting on top of us should help to keep North Sea SSTs elevated so IF we do eventually get an E/NE feed at the right time it will be nice and convective and unstable.

[syed2878]

seems like lot of the long range models signaling a blocked winter. Lets hope the blocking sets up in our favour.

[cooling climate]

Following on from what I posted in the autumn thread ozone levels continue a lot higher over

the northern hemisphere than this time last year. See images below

This I think bodes very well for northern blocking this winter although we are likely to be

in a positive QBO phase but because of higher ozone levels in the northern hemisphere we

will see prominent wave breaking into the lower stratosphere similar to winter 09-10.

As others have also said if we see winter setting in early over Scandinavia and western Russia

as I very much suspect it will then this will be a big player in the coming winter for Europe and

the UK.

ENSO I think will be trending neutral positive with a more NIno look to the the atmosphere and

with expected greater mountain torque events (wave breaking over western north America +PNA

and Asia) the QBO quasi biennial oscillation will be more active again adding to the ozone levels

over the northern hemisphere.

With a +QBO the polar vortices this winter could be strong at times but I believe it will be

displaced with one part often dropping into the Hudson bay southeast Canada area and the

other in down into western central Russia.

[Buriedundersnow]

another thing I am keeping my eye on for early signs of winter is the ice melt data.

 

I know people will say its not stuck on and I know that but it something I will be keeping my eye on in future years as this could present a good insight if we see some correlation.

 

this is the most up to date chart for this year.

 

 

if you notice 2009 and 2010 there was good early come back in the extent of ice over the pole and we will see how it goes but might be worth keeping tuned to this over the next years.

 

I know the early comeback of ice may just be a coincidence but its funny that the two coldest winters we had this happened and if we find a correlation it could be a really good tool for an early insight into winter as the early advance of ice might be just what we need to have a winter to produce cold weather here.

 

just a thought but we will see how it goes in future winters

 

would also add last year we saw early advance but not to the extent of other years and we did see cold but not till later and not as deep and like I say might just be coincidence but with what we have seen so far might be worth looking into.

Edited September 23, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Summer Sun]

Latest from CFS with the exception of January its fairly mild

 

Average to slightly above average December

 

 

 

 

 

Cooler January

 

 

 

 

 

Milder February

 

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Met4Cast]

another thing I am keeping my eye on for early signs of winter is the ice melt data.

 

I know people will say its not stuck on and I know that but it something I will be keeping my eye on in future years as this could present a good insight if we see some correlation.

 

this is the most up to date chart for this year.

 

sea_ice_only.jpg

 

if you notice 2009 and 2010 there was good early come back in the extent of ice over the pole and we will see how it goes but might be worth keeping tuned to this over the next years.

 

I know the early comeback of ice may just be a coincidence but its funny that the two coldest winters we had this happened and if we find a correlation it could be a really good tool for an early insight into winter as the early advance of ice might be just what we need to have a winter to produce cold weather here.

 

just a thought but we will see how it goes in future winters

 

would also add last year we saw early advance but not to the extent of other years and we did see cold but not till later and not as deep and like I say might just be coincidence but with what we have seen so far might be worth looking into.

 

Might be interesting to compare ice records with historic cold winters to see whether there is any correlation.

[Yarmy]

Latest from CFS with the exception of January its fairly mild

 

Average to slightly above average December

 

 

 

 

 

Cooler January

 

 

 

 

 

Milder February

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like a massively negative NAO for Dec/Jan to me. The regional detail will be miles out.

 

Probably the whole thing will be miles out anyway.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Might be interesting to compare ice records with historic cold winters to see whether there is any correlation.

 

This post might be of interest to you

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74566-teleconnections-and-long-range-forecasting/?p=2376807

[Buriedundersnow]

Might be interesting to compare ice records with historic cold winters to see whether there is any correlation.

 

 

good idea and when I get a bit of time I will have a little look into that I would prefer to see comparible data from past times with solar activity this low but there isn't any data for that far back so might not be able to get an exact correlation with other years where solar activity is normal but I will have a check for data from 40's to 70's but not sure what there will be as don't think there were any satellites measuring this through that period

[UV-RAY]

There is no correlation between arctic ice melt and winters in the NH, a loose connection at best but if comparing all of our severest winters bar December 2010 from the last 100 years then the correlation would be the more ice retention in summer then the  probability of a colder winter is higher. Of course with all things being equal the probability of a milder winter is just as high.

 

Edited September 23, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[MR EXTREMES]

Latest from CFS with the exception of January its fairly mild

 

Average to slightly above average December

 

 

 

 

 

Cooler January

 

 

 

 

 

Milder February

 

 

 

 

looks like a mess to me don't look right to me at all

[Dancerwithwings]

^^^^ model rollercoaster your username suit's the way the CFS is at the moment................... SS posted yesterday,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/page-50#entry2792941 

 

And Feb was the coldest month of winter yesterday and today it's the mildest so there you go has SS said "course non of this can be taken seriously"