Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Some of the coldest Jan CET on record , can we see a pattern ??  Note the 4 in the year.

 

1684     -3.0c

1814  -2.9c

1740  -2.8c

1940  -1.4c

1784   -0.6c

 

Other factors

 

In September 1813 they were saying Bruce Forsyth should retire and look what happened in Jan 1814.

 

In September 1683 the artic ice recovered by 60%. 'Recovery was the name of the day' Look what happened in 1684.(ref sceptical science)

 

In September 1939 war was declared, we see today war declared on Asda prices and look what happened in 1940

 

In more detail

.

1684 , 1814, 1740 , 1940 and 1784 we have '14' as a re-occurring theme, coincidence , don't think so... so its looking even better for mega cold. I forecast wide spread blizzards particularly around the 4th 14th (very big event) 24th Jan 2014

 

Full details can be found on Piers website  http://www.weatheraction.com/   

Where on earth did you get the Jan 2014 quote from???

 

BFTP

[Cloud 10]

Where on earth did you get the Jan 2014 quote from???

 

BFTP

 

 

[hillbilly]

I hope for a decent winter. Not a 1963 clone, but a balance of cold and snow.

 

I fear for a mild winter. Has a habit of screwing summers badly - 2007 and 2012 spring to mind. Has any mild winter produced a hot summer?

just a thought but if you look at all the severe winters such as 1940,47,56,63,79,81,86 and 2010 all were actually very different so if you are wanting a severe one it will probably be similar only to itself!!!

[Dancerwithwings]

Wow .... i know this is off Topic ((((BUT))))

 

 

 

Any chance of six numbers .........................................Just P msg me

[Tamara]

I don't know you would need to look in the stratosphere thread

As someone who usually enjoys some intelligent discussion then I thought you might welcome it

[stewfox]

Where on earth did you get the Jan 2014 quote from???

 

BFTP

 

I hope you haven't spent 3hrs trawling Piers web site, it was a joke

 

Although if it turns out to be true I will set up my own website run it for 3yrs and claim 100% accuracy and charge £9.99  per person to see my  forecasts.

Edited September 19, 2013 by stewfox

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Blimey, no comments on here since 10.40 pm last night - all must be quiet on the weather / forecasting front! 

[Gavin Hannah]

It's the typical lull before the second front blasts through....

[Chess01]

Just looked at the cfs and wow the start of November is a weather dream. Greenland highs the lot it's a shame as a few on into December it goes away and we get a zonel flow . What has being consistent though is around end of December into January a shot of very cold air seems to be forecast this ties in with January feb being more servere than December . Please weather gods just give us some snow at Christmas

[Summer Sun]

IRI model has updated for September

 

Temperature

 

 

Rainfall

 

[Captain Shortwave]

IRI model has updated for September

 

Temperature

 

 

Rainfall

 

Similar to other models in the sense it's a little uncertain about the pattern over Europe, but again big probability of higher temperatures over Greenland suggesting some sort of blocking pattern setting up.

You get the feeling this is one of those years where the polar vortex may never really get going and it will be down to pure luck where the warmer and colder weather ends up.

[snowking]

IRI model has updated for September

 

Temperature

 

 

Rainfall

 

 

I know this is obviously just posted for informational purposes SS

 

But just to give an example of the record of this particular output, this is taken from a washington post article about the success of Cohen's SAI-based temperature projection for last winter (can be found here - well worth a read: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/04/25/aers-judah-cohen-produces-amazingly-accurate-winter-outlook/)

 

Here was the IRI forecast for last winter:

 

 

And that was issued in December!

 

This is why I place very little faith in any sort of NWP-derived output at such range.

 

SK

[Yarmy]

Similar to other models in the sense it's a little uncertain about the pattern over Europe, but again big probability of higher temperatures over Greenland suggesting some sort of blocking pattern setting up.

You get the feeling this is one of those years where the polar vortex may never really get going and it will be down to pure luck where the warmer and colder weather ends up.

 

Cursed already! Winter is over.

[UV-RAY]

Cursed already! Winter is over.

Lol, I hope we don't start to see everything getting shunted eastwards nearer the time, as we've been here before with mega cold charts  only for them to slowly erode away as winter approaches.

[Summer Sun]

Early look at the start of winter from weather master

 

December

This isn't a actual forecast yet just a very quick look at the start of winter.

Rainfall - Looking very wet across the West and average elsewhere.

Temperatures - CFS goes for average temperatures and Climate Simulator 0.3c above average.

Overall - Autumn looks mostly wet and probably unsettled at times, temperatures close to average for most of the time but some mild spells of weather may make things slightly warmer than usual.  Early winter looks to carry this on through being wet with around average temperatures

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4669-autumn-2013-forecast-early-look-at-winter/

 

Quite of lot of agreement on an average to slightly above average December I also went for a slightly warmer than average December at the start of this month.

 

If we are to get any cold spell they look like coming in either Jan or Feb rather than earlier on

[cheeky_monkey]

UK must be overdue a very Mild wet December?

[Cheshire Freeze]

December has been showing as quite blocked over the last few weeks. Other models such as the Glosea4 also show Greenland based blocking to be more prevalent during the first half of winter before HP transfers east.

 

Here is an example of a suggested pressure pattern for December (one which has shown up fairly regularly)

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

How many times does this happen in winter lots of cold air to our east not so cold over us

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

I know this is obviously just posted for informational purposes SS

 

But just to give an example of the record of this particular output, this is taken from a washington post article about the success of Cohen's SAI-based temperature projection for last winter (can be found here - well worth a read: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/04/25/aers-judah-cohen-produces-amazingly-accurate-winter-outlook/)

 

Here was the IRI forecast for last winter:

 

 

And that was issued in December!

 

This is why I place very little faith in any sort of NWP-derived output at such range.

 

SK

 

The very long range raw model output for temperature anomalies is not worht taking all that seriously unless there is a very clear and coherent signal.  They're fun to look at (although maybe not ones which are quite so filled with reds) but as we saw last winter their ability to handle major events, particularly the winter-specific factor of the stratosphere and potential SSWs, is pretty limited.

The Met Office long range guidance was reasonable from what we heard from Ian and the GloSea5 model was actually able to pick up the SSW before it hit but even then it was well into December before that model picked up on it, well after our resident strat experts accurately picked up on the possibilities aloft for early January.

My view is that it's still too early to make many firm judgements on the winter ahead because so much depends on how things like NH snow cover set up in the coming 6-8 weeks.

[Methuselah]

 

My view is that it's still too early to make many firm judgements on the winter ahead because so much depends on how things like NH snow cover set up in the coming 6-8 weeks.

I agree LS...It's 'almost' as if the October snow-advance were a proxy for how the less-easy-to-discern individual factors are combining?

[Snowy L]

UK must be overdue a very Mild wet December?

It happened last year apart from the first few days? Or was that just in my area.

[bobbydog]

UK must be overdue a very Mild wet December?

 

i do seem to remember december 1990 being wet and mild. i'm sure everyone remembers the following february....

[feb1991blizzard]

i do seem to remember december 1990 being wet and mild. i'm sure everyone remembers the following february....

 

Dec 90 was a stonker from what I remember but probably was above average overall, just goes to show you can still get a real tonking in a generally mild month, xmas day I will never forget either, mild and stormy but with about 2 inches of hail sttling

[johnholmes]

It happened last year apart from the first few days? Or was that just in my area.

 

Welcome to Net Wx but we have no idea where that is?

[Don]

It happened last year apart from the first few days? Or was that just in my area.

 

December 2011 was mild with a CET of 6.0C and little in the way of cold.  Last December was a month of two halves with the mild second half largely cancelling out the cold first half leading to a near average CET overall. 

 

i do seem to remember december 1990 being wet and mild. i'm sure everyone remembers the following february....

 

December 1990 finished slightly below average overall at 4.3C.  I believe it was generally cold until just prior to Xmas when it turned mild/wet and continued this way until the New Year?  However, it is famous for that Midlands wet snow storm!

Edited September 20, 2013 by Don