Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[syed2878]

dfeb 91 was a good1 i remembor that1 getting sent home at lunch time because of heavy snow. Of course that was followed by dec 8th 1990 over a foot of snow we got that day haven't seen snow here synce. Well les hope the upcoming winter is a cold and snowy1.

[MPG]

That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone? 

Get used to the flip flopping of Matt Hugo's twitter posts.

[AWD]

Get used to the flip flopping of Matt Hugo's twitter posts.

Or perhaps the flip-flopping of the models which Matt simply describes.

[joggs]

dfeb 91 was a good1 i remembor that1 getting sent home at lunch time because of heavy snow. Of course that was followed by dec 8th 1990 over a foot of snow we got that day haven't seen snow here synce. Well les hope the upcoming winter is a cold and snowy1.

Feb 91 followed by dec 90!?!?!?,wish i could go back in time to my fav snow enents lol.

[Summer Sun]

Winter update from Simon keeling

 

[March Blizzard]

 

Indeed I think for the coldies the absolute best time for snow to last on the ground for the longest (with the right synoptics of course) is from mid November until the start of February after that as you say it is more likely to melt quicker in the sun as we progress through Feb.

 

But that's only true in otherwise identical weather conditions. What usually entails is that synoptics are more favourable for significant cold in the second half of winter due to the time lag effect I described a little earlier.

 

February might have stronger sun than November but it's easily the snowier of the two months, and I'm sure mid-March is snowier than mid-November.

 

March blows November out the water for sleet/snow falling and is even snowier than December on the 1971-2000 averages.

 

February has more snow lying days than November AND December.

 

Check for yourself: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/ukmapavge.html

 

This late winter "strong sun" debate always seems to flare up each year!

 

This is a handy table/list if you want to compare sun strength equivalents: http://windowseat.ca/sun/

 

As you can see the months with the most "average" sun strength in the year are September/March, with September on the stronger side and March on the weaker.

Edited September 19, 2013 by March Blizzard

[Summer Sun]

Interesting post on the weather outlook re winter
 

 

I've just been analysing the various models in detail, and it seems that while JMA and BBC have headed much colder in their signals, the Met Office ensemble model has actually backed off somewhat, while CFS is exploring an array of options at the moment.

 

That Met Office ensemble update shows lower than normal heights in the high-Arctic, which indicates a tendency for the PV to dominate up there. The positive heights near to the UK are not far from mid-latitude really. The Dec-Feb chart shows blockig being most likely to our NE, with a good chance of some cold continental imports, but a low chance of those impressive exports of cold air from close to the Pole that we look to for delivering the most epic cold spells.

JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postsm533321_Winter-2013-14-Prospects-and-Forecasts.aspx#post533321

[Methuselah]

Are all the building-blocks in place yet, or is winter over, already?

[PolarWarsaw]

I'd rather settle for cold and very snowy than very cold and dry. So that suits me.

[cheeky_monkey]

Some of the coldest Jan CET on record , can we see a pattern ??  Note the 4 in the year.

 

1684     -3.0c

1814  -2.9c

1740  -2.8c

1940  -1.4c

1784   -0.6c

 

Other factors

 

In September 1813 they were saying Bruce Forsyth should retire and look what happened in Jan 1814.

 

In September 1683 the artic ice recovered by 60%. 'Recovery was the name of the day' Look what happened in 1684.(ref sceptical science)

 

In September 1939 war was declared, we see today war declared on Asda prices and look what happened in 1940

 

In more detail

.

1684 , 1814, 1740 , 1940 and 1784 we have '14' as a re-occurring theme, coincidence , don't think so... so its looking even better for mega cold. I forecast wide spread blizzards particularly around the 4th 14th (very big event) 24th Jan 2014

 

Full details can be found on Piers website  http://www.weatheraction.com/   

talking of coincidences and weather events...my birthday was on the 12th November in 1978,81,85,86,90 and 2009 all were followed by cold and snow...even when we look at the hot summers of 76,83,90,95,03 and 06 again the same date is found..i have checked the calendar and you will be pleased to know my birthday falls on the 12th yet again this year...what with the above and my birthday date i think not only is a cold winter nailed on but the second coming cannot be ruled out!

[Methuselah]

talking of coincidences and weather events...my birthday was on the 12th November in 1978,81,85,86,90 and 2009 all were followed by cold and snow...even when we look at the hot summers of 76,83,90,95,03 and 06 again the same date is found..i have checked the calendar and you will be pleased to know my birthday falls on the 12th yet again this year...what with the above and my birthday date i think not only is a cold winter nailed on but the second coming cannot be ruled out!

I had a birthday on January 12 1982!

[Captain Shortwave]

February 17th, not one snowy year for that day 

Edited September 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I have no idea what this Winter is going to have in store for us, but my gut instinct would say that we are in for a good'en, if you are a coldie that is! In fact, at the risk of sounding like a certain Mr. Madden, I might say that this could well turn out to be a 'big one' with continual cold and sub-zero temps from January through to March. 

 

It really feels like we have entered a new era of Winters and all being well we have (for now) left those dreary, mild and snowless Winters behind us. I recall so many times over the past 20 years (past 5 years excluded) yearning for some descent snow / cold events and would watch enviously on the news as the lucky few (mainly those up North) would get at least one good dumping - it was as if the cold weather couldn't make it any further south than Leeds! I was starting to get to the point where I actually began to believe the whole 'even larger teapot' scenario - thankfully the last 5 Winters have restored my faith and put pay to that! 

 

As always I am looking forward to all the banter that always unfolds on here each Winter. Getting to my lunch break at work and seeing that there are about 30 pages to catch up on! 

 

I hope this Winter brings you all that you desire, but especially if you are a coldie fan    

 

...and I really would like our beautiful Golden Retriever (see Avatar) puppy to experience a good snowfall while he is young - fingers, or should that be paws crossed!!! 

[RCT]

An interesting 12z on the GFS charts towards the end. Maybe a small cold snap at the end of Sept beginning of Oct (nothing major at the moment but could possibly change). Noticed this keeps coming up for the last few days...  

[Cheshire Freeze]

An interesting 12z on the GFS charts towards the end. Maybe a small cold snap at the end of Sept beginning of Oct (nothing major at the moment but could possibly change). Noticed this keeps coming up for the last few days...

 

The switch back into a -NAO pattern seems to be being advertised as possibly being quite rapid. Especially according to the GFS.

[stewfox]

Are all the building-blocks in place yet, or is winter over, already?

 

 

I don't know you would need to look in the stratosphere thread

[Captain Shortwave]

The switch back into a -NAO pattern seems to be being advertised as possibly being quite rapid. Especially according to the GFS.

Hmm if it does happen, I expect it to be anything other than rapid. The Atlantic pattern looks to be slowing to a crawl, the joys of the polar vortex being over the other side of the pole. It can blooming well stay there 

[Gaz1985]

But that's only true in otherwise identical weather conditions. What usually entails is that synoptics are more favourable for significant cold in the second half of winter due to the time lag effect I described a little earlier.

 

February might have stronger sun than November but it's easily the snowier of the two months, and I'm sure mid-March is snowier than mid-November.

 

Exactly that was really my only point and never actually said November is snowier than February or March, I know they are on average snowier, all it was that the sun catches more snow cover in February and March that would otherwise be completely in the shade in November through to late January hence a greater chance of less overall snow melt especially in a north facing location. Some people (not really you) seem to be suggesting things I haven't typed lol

[Rollo]

I had a birthday on January 12 1982!

Probably as good way as any to predict the coming seasons weather at the present time. Will someone correct me if I am wrong but I seem to recall CFS predicting a mild winter for 2010/2011.

[NeilN]

I hope for a decent winter. Not a 1963 clone, but a balance of cold and snow.

 

I fear for a mild winter. Has a habit of screwing summers badly - 2007 and 2012 spring to mind. Has any mild winter produced a hot summer?

[virtualsphere]

I fear for a mild winter. Has a habit of screwing summers badly - 2007 and 2012 spring to mind. Has any mild winter produced a hot summer?

 

Winter 1988/89 followed by summer 1989.

[NeilN]

Winter 1988/89 followed by summer 1989.

 

Thank you

[virtualsphere]

...also the following year winter 1989-90 followed by summer 1990, so I don't think it's anything to worry about

[feb1991blizzard]

...also the following year winter 1989-90 followed by summer 1990, so I don't think it's anything to worry about

 

 

And the rest will go down in history.

[NeilN]

...also the following year winter 1989-90 followed by summer 1990, so I don't think it's anything to worry about

 

Even better!!