Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Captain Shortwave]

Bit more meat on the bones, interesting relation to the current developing pattern. The NCEP anomaly going for extensive positive height anomalies to the north

[Paul]

But it has to be operational, paul, otherwise it would never get the necessary feedback - except behind closed doors...And that would spark all number of conspiracy theories?

 

As a matter of interest, however, are there any verification data available? The cherry-picked charts I've seen, up to now, just don't convince me that it is as good as some folks would have us believe...

 

I'm not being a 'denialist'; but until I see a quantifiable all-round improvement in LRFs, I will remain sceptical... 

 

There's loads of them - most of them raw data but will see what I can dig out. 

 

The model isn't out there for feedback btw, it's out there as an operational model for the NOAA forecasters to use - it's part of the suite they use in preparation of their own forecasts. There are models which are put out there in parallel or as tests for feedback, but this definitely isn't one. 

[Methuselah]

There's loads of them - most of them raw data but will see what I can dig out. 

 

The model isn't out there for feedback btw, it's out there as an operational model for the NOAA forecasters to use - it's part of the suite they use in preparation of their own forecasts. There are models which are put out there in parallel or as tests for feedback, but this definitely isn't one. 

Thank you, paul...

[Mike Poole]

Hello everyone!

 

Been lurking here for a while and really enjoy reading everone's posts in various threads, time to make some comment of my own!

 

I can honestly say I'm looking forward to winter - for me there's only one good thing about winter and that's snow and cold weather - and I reckon I've suffered from SAD (seasonally affected disorder) for years.  But for the last couple of years the netweather MOD thread has seen me through, either excitement with the potential for interesting weather, or just making the dark wet dull stuff fly by!

 

My thoughts for winter (early ones) are as follows:

I usually look at at least 5 CFS runs per week and this model is consistently going for northern blocking - as others have pointed out.  So it's looking cold - but how cold?  Some long range models suggest not that much colder than average, so that has me thinking coldish and snowy, rather then v cold and dry.  Lots of discussion about solar activity and arctic sea ice - I think there is lots of uncertainty about these but they are only pointing to towards a colder outlook for the UK, so at this early stage I'm saying:

 

70% Colder than average

20% Average

10% Warmer than average

 

But that's subject to change when we see how the stratosphere sets up in November!

 

Mike

Edited September 17, 2013 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Welcome to NW, Mike!

[Mike Poole]

Thanks ABNS!  Now just tying to work out how to correct my dodgy maths - but maybe this year is going to be a 110% winter! I thought it was possible to edit posts though!  Sussed it now!!

Edited September 17, 2013 by Mike Poole

[bobbydog]

Hello everyone!

 

Been lurking here for a while and really enjoy reading everone's posts in various threads, time to make some comment of my own!

 

I can honestly say I'm looking forward to winter - for me there's only one good thing about winter and that's snow and cold weather - and I reckon I've suffered from SAD (seasonally affected disorder) for years.  But for the last couple of years the netweather MOD thread has seen me through, either excitement with the potential for interesting weather, or just making the dark wet dull stuff fly by!

 

My thoughts for winter (early ones) are as follows:

I usually look at at least 5 CFS runs per week and this model is consistently going for northern blocking - as others have pointed out.  So it's looking cold - but how cold?  Some long range models suggest not that much colder than average, so that has me thinking coldish and snowy, rather then v cold and dry.  Lots of discussion about solar activity and arctic sea ice - I think there is lots of uncertainty about these but they are only pointing to towards a colder outlook for the UK, so at this early stage I'm saying:

 

70% Colder than average

20% Average

10% Warmer than average

 

But that's subject to change when we see how the stratosphere sets up in November!

 

Mike

 

welcome mike!

 

ironically, most of us on here suffer from SAD because of the model thread! ....

[Allseasons-Si]

Hey guys,I thought that i would post a chart for comparison to last year,which did take my eye for a look

 

here is last year at the present date(17/09/2012)

 

by the ecm

 

and here the present day(17/09/2013)

 

by the ecm

 

there is a very similar pattern to them,now,there is a couple of things that i have highlighted to suggest if there is a slight shift in our favour to a colder spell this winter

 

notice the position of the trough this year is slightly further south than this time last year(i know,with autumn we get succesive lows/troughs etc),but i am looking at a broader scale,the ridge/high that i have highlighted is a lot stronger than that of this time last year

 

and if you traverse through the ecm to 240 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=17&mois=9&annee=2013&heure=0&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1

 

i think this could play a major role in this upcoming winter,atlantic dead

 

i may be talking a load of b*****'s,but it's a start

 

[bryan629]

 

hi guys... just a quickie

Whet would conditions be like on the surface should this chart verify ?

[Met4Cast]

cfsnh-0-2430.png

 

hi guys... just a quickie

Whet would conditions be like on the surface should this chart verify ?

 

Very windy. Heavy snow showers/blizzard conditions feeding into Northern and Eastern areas

[cheeky_monkey]

cfsnh-0-2430.png

 

hi guys... just a quickie

Whet would conditions be like on the surface should this chart verify ?

rather cold and blustery with wintry showers esp in the north drier and brighter further south with sunshine and scattered blustery showers

[Methuselah]

The SAD is getting to me too...Apologies for my tendency towards cantankerousness...

[UV-RAY]

The SAD is getting to me too...Apologies for my tendency towards cantankerousness...

Pete, when you are cranky 24/7 it's not SAD more GRUMPY OLD GIT! :-)

[Gavin Hannah]

This just in... This winter will be apocolypicticly cold and snowy. How do i know? Coz ImBringingTheWeather!! Rofl.

Anyhow..... The next 6 weeks will be the most interesting, with many a tantrum breaking out as the models chop and change and we all scrutinise every potential driver/influencer on the winter weather.

Keep your eyes on the SAI and the amount of snow that the n.hem receives over the next 6-8 weeks. Wi be key.

[Summer Sun]

The weather centre issued there winter forecast at the end of August and this is what they went for regarding the North Atlantic Oscillation - http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/north-atlantic-oscillation-2013-2014.html

Edited September 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

The weather centre issued there winter forecast at the end of August and this is what they went for regarding the North Atlantic Oscillation - http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/north-atlantic-oscillation-2013-2014.html

Yikes, their prime analogue year was the winter of 62/63, going for the Greenland high this winter 

[Yarmy]

The weather centre issued there winter forecast at the end of August and this is what they went for regarding the North Atlantic Oscillation - http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/north-atlantic-oscillation-2013-2014.html

 

62-63, lol. That was a lot of words to say -NAO.

 

Seriously, who are they? A reputable forecasting outfit, or Madden in a shed?

 

Edit: Just read a few of his posts and his blog profile says one of his favourite films is The Day After Tomorrow. I wonder if that might, er, "influence" his forecasts somewhat to the cold side.

Edited September 18, 2013 by Yarmy

[Gael_Force]

He's working off analogues ......what happens to be the top of the current analogue list from the NOAA  GFS Ensembles?

 

[johnholmes]

Not to worry his output will get read and circulated as it is forecasting a cold winter. 

[Yarmy]

He's working off analogues ......what happens to be the top of the current analogue list from the NOAA  GFS Ensembles?

 

 

Just so I'm reading that right, the top analogue to today was the 6th October 1962, the next closest 6th October 2008, etc?

 

Is there any mileage in this analogue business (at this range)? I'm pretty sceptical: it would make LRFs a doddle,

[Captain Shortwave]

Well here is Simon Keeling's (from weatheronline) probability breakdown for winter

 

Here are the probabilities given this morning, and I thought you might like to see them too. 

- Very cold (mean temperature >2C below normal) 25% 
- Cold (mean temperatures >1C below normal) 30% 
- Normal (mean temperatures +1 to -1C) 20% 
- Warm (mean temperatures >1C above normal 15% 
- Very warm (mean temperatures >5C above normal 10% 

Please remember, this is not a forecast. It is guidance based on the latest available computer models, and by making comparisons with previous years. We try to be as objective as possible when producing the forecasts and probabilities. 

 

Read of that what you will

link to page

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=848

Edited September 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[AWD]

I'd take a cold or very cold winter so that means I got a 55% chance of getting what I want based on that! :)

[Gael_Force]

Just so I'm reading that right, the top analogue to today was the 6th October 1962, the next closest 6th October 2008, etc?

 

Is there any mileage in this analogue business (at this range)? I'm pretty sceptical: it would make LRFs a doddle,

 

The UK is such a tiny speck on the global mass it would be impossible to use analogues as a forecasting tool - for the wider picture it may have some value. The forecast up the page is based on analogues, I was just pointing out that the current/projected patterns must have some similarity (on a broad scale) for it to feature in the current list.

[Snowy L]

Very warm (mean temperatures >5C above normal 10%

 

Have we ever had a winter that's been 5c above average? Seems like a very high percentage for something I don't think we have ever seen.

[Yarmy]

Very warm (mean temperatures >5C above normal 10%

 

Have we ever had a winter that's been 5c above average? Seems like a very high percentage for something I don't think we have ever seen.

 

Typo, surely? Presumably should be 2C.