Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[SomeLikeItHot]

Or why does a tax funded organisation not issue them anymore, we all know the weather is a fickle beast but if they are prepared to sell long range forecast to private businesses then surely they should be providing this free to their paymasters, you and I. Don't get me wrong I think the MetO are the best in the business at  7-10 day forecasting, but with all that alleged super computer power they surely can take a stab in the dark at least.

 

If they don't believe they have a reliable method - and they clearly  both don't believe it and don't have one, then you run the risk of making a wrong forecast and this being more costly than just assuming normal probabilities of climatology. Does anyone thing the contigency planner forecasts where they say there is a 5% chance more of cold , or hot or whatever is useful to planning? Is this really enough to change your plans on when they are planning for worst case scenarios anyway not on the average? Not to mention misreporting as tabloids treat a slight bias for cold as "Met forecasts mini ice age". Better to keep your mouth shut in my opinion.

[UV-RAY]

If they don't believe they have a reliable method - and they clearly  both don't believe it and don't have one, then you run the risk of making a wrong forecast and this being more costly than just assuming normal probabilities of climatology. Does anyone thing the contigency planner forecasts where they say there is a 5% chance more of cold , or hot or whatever is useful to planning? Is this really enough to change your plans on when they are planning for worst case scenarios anyway not on the average? Not to mention misreporting as tabloids treat a slight bias for cold as "Met forecasts mini ice age". Better to keep your mouth shut in my opinion.

Not at all as it does what it says on the tin, forecast "not set in stone". They still provide them to business so why are the taxpayers exempt from this publicly funded service.

[Gael_Force]

Not at all as it does what it says on the tin, forecast "not set in stone". They still provide them to business so why are the taxpayers exempt from this publicly funded service.

 

The taxpayers are getting forecasts all day, every day of the week - the business side of things is based on probabilities - how can it be any different at seasonal time span?. This summer is a good example of that; nearly all forecasts were for the lower end of the temperature spectrum.

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS is actually showing this for December...

 

 

Looks cold enough to my eyes

 

4 degrees below average in terms of 850s

 

 

Even more impressive when you look at the pressure anomalies from a NH perspective

 

 

 

 

Edited September 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[UV-RAY]

The taxpayers are getting forecasts all day, every day of the week - the business side of things is based on probabilities - how can it be any different at seasonal time span?. This summer is a good example of that; nearly all forecasts were for the lower end of the temperature spectrum.

So we should get a LRF also, remember without the taxpayer we wouldn't have thee best metrological service in the world. I use to look froward their LRF regardless of them being right or wrong, what they shouldn't be doing is issuing them to private business using the taxpayers monies.

 

Anyhow that's enough of that rant!!!

[Summer Sun]

CFS is actually showing this for December...

 

cfs dec1.png

 

Looks cold enough to my eyes

 

4 degrees below average in terms of 850s

 

dec850s.png

 

Even more impressive when you look at the pressure anomalies from a NH perspective

 

Impressive.png

 

Eases significantly for January

 

 

Bartlett high anyone?

 

 

February

 

 

Overall a fairly average winter still temperature wise

Edited September 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

Eases significantly for January

 

 

Bartlett high anyone?

 

 

February

 

 

There's no Bartlett suggested on those charts SS. For one there is ridging shown into the Arctic on that mslp chart for Jan- west coast of Canada into the pole. That would amplify the jet were it to occur. All of the 850 anomaly charts for the 3 months show average to below. In the politest possible way, your interpretations of these charts are wrong.

Edited September 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

There's no Bartlett suggested on those charts SS. For one there is ridging shown into the Arctic on that mslp chart for Jan- west coast of Canada into the pole. That would amplify the jet were it to occur. All of the 850 anomaly charts for the 3 months show average to below. In the politest possible way, your interpretations of these charts are wrong.

 

I could have sworn it was thanks for correcting me

[Paul]

This seems to be just a circular argument at the moment, as has already been covered - the CFS charts really have to be averaged, so taking 1 day's output (virtually every day) and arguing over the finer points of what it may or may not show does seem to be a fairly pointless exercise? Maybe it's best we move on...

[Cheshire Freeze]

This seems to be just a circular argument at the moment, as has already been covered - the CFS charts really have to be averaged, so taking 1 day's output (virtually every day) and arguing over the finer points of what it may or may not show does seem to be a fairly pointless exercise? Maybe it's best we move on...

 

I've tried (time and time again) to put that very point across Paul. It falls on deaf ears though and I have to witness the same ramblings about individual runs time and time again!

[Captain Shortwave]

I think at the moment I think it should be more in the way of fun and banter than anything else at the moment. Especially those who seem to be posting the daily operationals. I know there are a lot of people on here who are a lot wiser to the workings of the long range models like the CFS who I will definitely have an interest in reading their thoughts on how the winter might pan out. Though for the time being I will continue to dress up as a snowflake and dance around my room to christmas songs for 1 hour a day 

[UV-RAY]

I've tried (time and time again) to put that very point across Paul. It falls on deaf ears though and I have to witness the same ramblings about individual runs time and time again!

I share your pain CC.

[shedhead]

2-3 days ago next week was looking pants, currently it looks great, but in a couple of days it could again look pants....if that doesn't indicate the folly of veiwing each and every CFS op for 3-5 months hence as gospel then what will? 

Edited September 17, 2013 by shedhead

[Paul]

So why do the professionals ignore it? By all means, see how it compares to the other models' FI ranges? Not that they provide much of a benchmark, either?

 

Why are the LRFs, by those who claim to be able to 'read the CFS properly', no better than anyone-else's?

 

Pete, if it's so bad why would NOAA (who incidentally are professionals!) make it, and continue to develop it? On top of that, there are plenty of pro forecasters who use it as part of their armoury.

[shedhead]

Pete, if it's so bad why would NOAA (who incidentally are professionals!) make it, and continue to develop it? On top of that, there are plenty of pro forecasters who use it as part of their armoury.

As CC and others have been saying ad infinitum, it has to be used correctly.

[Gael_Force]

Pete, if it's so bad why would NOAA (who incidentally are professionals!) make it, and continue to develop it? On top of that, there are plenty of pro forecasters who use it as part of their armoury.

 

It is certainly used by the professionals across the Pond. The problem here is the way it is being presented by a few posters - reams of charts with comment that is rendered meaningless when the charts all update to the current set. It has no value to anyone looking back through the threads or for future evaluation.

[johnholmes]

So we should get a LRF also, remember without the taxpayer we wouldn't have thee best metrological service in the world. I use to look froward their LRF regardless of them being right or wrong, what they shouldn't be doing is issuing them to private business using the taxpayers monies.

 

Anyhow that's enough of that rant!!!

 

Not strictly true what you say as they are making money from the private business as their mandate from Parliament makes clear they have to. Most of the tax payers money in fact goes into the overall operational side, the major part of which is providing forecasts for MOD wherever they are tasked with operating, again by Parliament. There is of course the climatological side which is again funded by you and I.

Its some years since I ploughed through the Annual Report but all in the income is available to see and also what tax payers money goes where-terribly boring but it is available if you have the time and patience to want to read it all.

Edited September 17, 2013 by johnholmes

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest ENSO outlook suggests a transition towards the +ve side of ENSO neutral during the Autumn and Winter, but with a small chance of an El Nino developing. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

 

We've seen the warm upper ocean heat anomalies strengthen and move toward the surface over the last few months, with the upper ocean heat content now at its highest level since November 2012.

 

 

This has recently began to break the surface, resulting in an increase in SSTs generally across the tropical Pacific, especially in the east.

 

 

The latest models now suggest a neutral ENSO winter, with a spread from -ve/neutral to moderate El Nino.

 

 

 

I did a little analysis last year, looking at the correlation between the winter CET and ENSO, which you can see here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74491-winter-2012-2013-part-2/?p=2373163

It suggested that neutral ENSO values are best when it comes to cool Winter CETs, and that El Nino and La Nina events tend to reduce our cold weather risk.

 

So the latest ENSO forecast, suggesting a neutral winter, is a good one for the many cold weather lovers on here.

[bobbydog]

good post BFTV. this is the type of indicator people should be looking at at this range. drivers of weather patterns such as this, as they transition into their 'winter phase' will give a better idea of the type of winter we could have. as we discovered though, its not that simple. various combinations of these drivers can deliver similar weather patterns. a bit like having several jigsaws with the same picture but very different pieces.

as has been said. the CFS is a useful tool for looking for trends, along with many other factors. finer details on charts at this far out are irrelevant.

[Methuselah]

Pete, if it's so bad why would NOAA (who incidentally are professionals!) make it, and continue to develop it? On top of that, there are plenty of pro forecasters who use it as part of their armoury.

Because it's the way forward...But, there's only one way to improve something, IMO; and that is through constant use, feedback and improvement - and objective verification. But, none of that demonstrates is usefulness at predicting weather-patterns 3,6, 9 months' down the line - at this point in time?

 

IMO, it is a - for want of a better word - prototype? 

[keithlucky]

So Europe"s top met men forecast  a cold winter lol so good news we won"t need our winter woolies! http://t.co/1C5QjrFBhA

 

[Paul]

Because it's the way forward...But, there's only one way to improve something, IMO; and that is through constant use, feedback and improvement - and objective verification. But, none of that demonstrates is usefulness at predicting weather-patterns 3,6, 9 months' down the line - at this point in time?

 

IMO, it is a - for want of a better word - prototype? 

 

Except it's not Pete It's an operational model.

[Methuselah]

Except it's not Pete It's an operational model.

But it has to be operational, paul, otherwise it would never get the necessary feedback - except behind closed doors...And that would spark all number of conspiracy theories?

 

As a matter of interest, however, are there any verification data available? The cherry-picked charts I've seen, up to now, just don't convince me that it is as good as some folks would have us believe...

 

I'm not being a 'denialist'; but until I see a quantifiable all-round improvement in LRFs, I will remain sceptical... 

[joggs]

So Europe"s top met men forecast a cold winter lol so good news we won"t need our winter woolies! http://t.co/1C5QjrFBhA

Haaa,joe bastardi!.He's actually done decent over the last few winters.

[Methuselah]

Haaa,joe bastardi!.He's actually done decent over the last few winters.

If you leave out the USA (2011-12) he has...