Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not if it falls before Christmas itself. I don't like the Met's definition of a white Christmas - if there is snow on the ground, it's a white Christmas. Certainly looks more white than wet snow that doesn't settle.

 

Yeah, I would say that as well, to me Xmas '11 was white Xmas, snow on ground with a max of -5.1C

[feb1991blizzard]

Not if it falls before Christmas itself. I don't like the Met's definition of a white Christmas - if there is snow on the ground, it's a white Christmas. Certainly looks more white than wet snow that doesn't settle.

 

 

Yes, although if it belted down 2 days before xmas, I don't think most people would like that.

[Relativistic]

That's good news, if any snow falls in February it will melt quicker than December, a green Christmas anyone?

Ground temperatures are much colder in February than in December. Edited September 18, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Gaz1985]

Ground temperatures are much colder in February than in December.

 

Doesn't matter, if the dew point is high enough and because the sun is stronger in February then the snow will melt on average quicker.

[Relativistic]

Doesn't matter, if the dew point is high enough and because the sun is stronger in February then the snow will melt on average quicker.

Temperatures are statistically lower in February than in December. Snow won't melt as easily at lower temperatures funnily enough.TWS made a post fairly recently about the myth of snow melting quicker in February. Unfortunately I have no idea which thread it was on so can't link it. Edited September 18, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Gaz1985]

Temperatures are statistically lower in February than in December. Snow won't melt as easily at lower temperatures funnily enough.TWS made a post fairly recently about the myth of snow melting quicker in February. Unfortunately I have no idea which thread it was on so can't link it.

 

I know but this isn't Lapland so in extreme low temps of course snow will last - but I'm talking about the UK and here temperature's arn't the only factor in snow lasting or perhaps you didn't know?, dew point, cloud cover and solar heating are some of the others. If you have the same dew point and temp in December and Feb and a sunny day then snow will melt quicker and more of it in the February day due to the sun angle melting snow that was in the shade in December. Plus in February we are tilted a bit closer to the sun hence more solar heating and the higher sun angle.

Edited September 18, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Chess01]

I would prefer it to snow at Christmas than march . Ideally I would like to see some light snow showers the week before Christmas just enough to make it look festive without ruining people's Christmas plans then on Christmas eve I would like a heavy snow followed by some light snow on Christmas day

[Weather-history]

Spent Christmas in Sydney once. Bizarre experience: there were shops open and everyone went down the beach in the afternoon.

Spent 9 Christmases in Perth, Western Australia. Still had a traditional turkey dinner even though it was hot at times. Went to a barbecue one Christmas evening which was really good.

[cheese]

Temperatures are statistically lower in February than in December. Snow won't melt as easily at lower temperatures funnily enough.TWS made a post fairly recently about the myth of snow melting quicker in February. Unfortunately I have no idea which thread it was on so can't link it.

Not necessarily. It varies as ever from place to place. For much of England, February typically has warmer days than December but with colder nights, but for the UK as a whole,  February is colder in all aspects. The difference is insignificant as to be negligible though.

Edited September 18, 2013 by cheese

[feb1991blizzard]

Temperatures are statistically lower in February than in December. Snow won't melt as easily at lower temperatures funnily enough.TWS made a post fairly recently about the myth of snow melting quicker in February. Unfortunately I have no idea which thread it was on so can't link it.

 

Yes, this myth is because a lot of very brief events have happened in ferbruary lately, It will only take a 91 and everyone will be talking about March being a stronger sun and saying that they wish that a March fall had occurred in February

[EML Network]

And when, come March 2014, we'll all be happy to just see one snow flake, after the mildest winter for 1/2 a decade...we'll be blaming it all on the QBO !

[feb1991blizzard]

And when, come March 2014, we'll all be happy to just see one snow flake, after the mildest winter for 1/2 a decade...we'll be blaming it all on the QBO !

 

Most will probably be blaming it on global warming, yet whenever a stonkingly cold winter happens..............

[AderynCoch]

You'd have thought this sun-too-strong-in-February claptrap had finally been put to bed following what happened last winter, but old habits die hard I suppose. Look at how cold March was, and more especially the second half: the strength of sun at the time was pretty much the same as it is now. Yes the level of cold and snow was highly unusual for late March but it wouldn't have been too out of the ordinary in February. The sun may be at its weakest in December but the landmasses are still cooling because there's a lag time between when the sun's rays start to get stronger and when the atmosphere responds to this (similar to the lag between the summer solstice in June and the land heating up to make July and August warmer months on average).

 

One thing in December's favour is that when cold and snow does take hold it is helped on by the shorter nights; the point is that cold and snow is more likely to take hold after Christmas than before it. Funnily enough December was the coldest winter month during that unusually warm period from about 1988 to about 2008, but that was due to January and February being particulary mild rather than December being particularly cold. The long-term averages show that December is normally the mildest of the three winter months.

 

I do prefer the cold stuff in December though. It perfectly complements the long nights and festive atmosphere.

[cheese]

On a visit to Temple Newsam, Leeds on 24 March, I encountered 100% snow cover, with blowing snow, on a day when the sun was shining fully.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I do prefer the cold stuff in December though. It perfectly complements the long nights and festive atmosphere.

 

A December evening, 5pm, pitch black, Christmas lights twinkling and a stroll around the Christmas markets whilst it's -3 and there's a heavy frost setting in with the promise of snow showers later on. Perfec! Oh and don't forget the hot cherry brandy you can get from the Christmas stalls!

 

Pretty much my memory of Dec '10. How anyone can not like that type of festive weather I'll never know! Doesn't quite have the same effect when it's 12C and pouring with rain!

Edited September 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

Westward correction started on GFS 18z.

 

 

A few more of those over the next few runs = white Scottish mountain tops and temps struggling into double figures with frosts for the Northern half of uk

Edited September 18, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Benvironment]

Spent Christmas in Sydney once. Bizarre experience: there were shops open and everyone went down the beach in the afternoon.

 

I've had one Christmas in the southern hemisphere, in Perth.  We went for a Christmas lunch in a golf course where a very trendy meal was served.  Three starters of oysters, sorbet and quail before a bizarre collection of objects were served as the main; potato shavings in the shape of a teepee, half a carrot (cut lengthways) and very little meat, all positioned using a protractor on an absurdly oversized plate.Father Christmas made an appearance in full-on furry garb that would put northern hemisphere FCs to shame, before we were ejected outside into 42C (in the shade) and immediately sought refuge in whatever building we could find that had air conditioning.  Returning to my pal's house, we sat in the living room sticking to leather chairs as an aircon unit vainly tried to shoo the stifling heat out of the house.  My pal's parents had arrived from England by then and brought with them a taste of home, a Cadbury selection box from my mum.  A tradition every year since I was wee.  One prod of the finger of fudge revealed the entire contents had liquified in the heat.

 

It was god-awful.  Disturbing and traumatic in equal measure.  Wrong on so many levels.  I've travelled extensively and that was easily the most homesick moment in all my life.  I just longed for a pile of pigs in blankets, dry turkey and a mountain of roast potatoes, washed down with cheap bucks fizz and all served with a dollop of dreich old drizzle or a touch of frost.  A gale, a blizzard, fog.  Any of those would do so long as it was below 42F yet alone 42C. 

 

Suffice to say I won't be leaving Scotland for Christmas ever again :winky:

[Robbie Garrett]

Quite a bit of similarity between the two. Just saying...

 

18z for Sept at 180hrs out

 

 

Same time, but 2010...

 

 

Edited September 18, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes!!

 

 

 

Close but no cigar.

 

 

[AderynCoch]

I spent last Christmas in tropical Cairns. It was surreal watching an outdoor concert of Christmas carols one night when it was still about 30C with the smell of barbecues in the air.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Temperatures are statistically lower in February than in December. Snow won't melt as easily at lower temperatures funnily enough.TWS made a post fairly recently about the myth of snow melting quicker in February. Unfortunately I have no idea which thread it was on so can't link it.

 

I think it's true that snow is progressively more likely to melt in the sun as we head through February- the real misconception is the idea that, particularly late in the month, it becomes near-impossible for a snow cover to last in sunshine.  This misconception arises because, while we've had some unusually potent cold spells in November, December, January and March in recent years, we've largely avoided them during recent Februarys- instead recent February cold spells have tended to be marginal for snowfall, and thus any sunshine has tended to lift the temperature well above freezing and bring a rapid thaw.  February 2012 gave some of us a taste of what is possible though, with a week to ten days of snow cover in some parts of the country despite only two or three individual snowfalls to top it up.

 

Statistically, taking long-term averages (spanning the last 100 years or so) snow cover is slightly less likely in February than in January, but more likely than in December.  Recent years have again distorted this due to the unusual frequency of very cold synoptics in December and lack of them in February.

[SomeLikeItHot]

I've had one Christmas in the southern hemisphere, in Perth.  We went for a Christmas lunch in a golf course where a very trendy meal was served.  Three starters of oysters, sorbet and quail before a bizarre collection of objects were served as the main; potato shavings in the shape of a teepee, half a carrot (cut lengthways) and very little meat, all positioned using a protractor on an absurdly oversized plate.

Father Christmas made an appearance in full-on furry garb that would put northern hemisphere FCs to shame, before we were ejected outside into 42C (in the shade) and immediately sought refuge in whatever building we could find that had air conditioning.  Returning to my pal's house, we sat in the living room sticking to leather chairs as an aircon unit vainly tried to shoo the stifling heat out of the house.  My pal's parents had arrived from England by then and brought with them a taste of home, a Cadbury selection box from my mum.  A tradition every year since I was wee.  One prod of the finger of fudge revealed the entire contents had liquified in the heat.

 

It was god-awful.  Disturbing and traumatic in equal measure.  Wrong on so many levels.  I've travelled extensively and that was easily the most homesick moment in all my life.  I just longed for a pile of pigs in blankets, dry turkey and a mountain of roast potatoes, washed down with cheap bucks fizz and all served with a dollop of dreich old drizzle or a touch of frost.  A gale, a blizzard, fog.  Any of those would do so long as it was below 42F yet alone 42C. 

 

Suffice to say I won't be leaving Scotland for Christmas ever again

 

Bah you haven't had a real Christmas day until you've eaten a roast in 40 degree weather followed by cold beer bit of backyard cricket and a dip in the pool (or beach if its handy) to cool off. Later in the evening you can kick back on the veranda, with a couple of quiet beers and discuss the prospects for the Boxing day test.

 

Not having a swim on Christmas day just felt wrong last year.

[Gaz1985]

I think it's true that snow is progressively more likely to melt in the sun as we head through February- the real misconception is the idea that, particularly late in the month, it becomes near-impossible for a snow cover to last in sunshine.  This misconception arises because, while we've had some unusually potent cold spells in November, December, January and March in recent years, we've largely avoided them during recent Februarys- instead recent February cold spells have tended to be marginal for snowfall, and thus any sunshine has tended to lift the temperature well above freezing and bring a rapid thaw.  February 2012 gave some of us a taste of what is possible though, with a week to ten days of snow cover in some parts of the country despite only two or three individual snowfalls to top it up.

 

Statistically, taking long-term averages (spanning the last 100 years or so) snow cover is slightly less likely in February than in January, but more likely than in December.  Recent years have again distorted this due to the unusual frequency of very cold synoptics in December and lack of them in February.

 

Indeed I think for the coldies the absolute best time for snow to last on the ground for the longest (with the right synoptics of course) is from mid November until the start of February after that as you say it is more likely to melt quicker in the sun as we progress through Feb.

[Steve C]

February 2012 gave some of us a taste of what is possible though, with a week to ten days of snow cover in some parts of the country despite only two or three individual snowfalls to top it up.

 

 

Absolutely right TWS. It happened where I live.

[AderynCoch]

Indeed I think for the coldies the absolute best time for snow to last on the ground for the longest (with the right synoptics of course) is from mid November until the start of February after that as you say it is more likely to melt quicker in the sun as we progress through Feb.

But that's only true in otherwise identical weather conditions. What usually entails is that synoptics are more favourable for significant cold in the second half of winter due to the time lag effect I described a little earlier.

 

February might have stronger sun than November but it's easily the snowier of the two months, and I'm sure mid-March is snowier than mid-November.

Edited September 19, 2013 by AderynCoch