Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Mr.Plow]

Thanks for the information Tamara and Lorenzo.(And all the others)

I struggle to fully grasp what drives what in these situations.

I remember previous winters learning about El Nino / La Nina. Then trying to grasp AO / NAO.

Looks like there another topic I need to look at!

Weather is definitely a subject that you'll never run out of things to learn.

Edited September 16, 2013 by HomerJ

[Methuselah]

But remember: although the extreme warmth of mid-October 1978 was followed by a snowfest, the October snows of 1993 and 1974 were not...

[Skyraker]

But remember: although the extreme warmth of mid-October 1978 was followed by a snowfest,

 

Oh.... you tease you.

[bobbydog]

i can guarantee that this winter will be much colder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

than summer........

[feb1991blizzard]

MOD thread, high pressure thread, yawn yawn, high pressure yawn, yawn. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Robbie Garrett]

This could be pretty serious, CFS is showing some stonking stuff...

 

 

 

 

[Weather-history]

But remember: although the extreme warmth of mid-October 1978 was followed by a snowfest, the October snows of 1993 and 1974 were not...

1993-94 wasn't too bad a winter if you like snow. I saw more snow during the week up to Christmas than I did the previous two winters combined.

[Tim Bland]

This could be pretty serious, CFS is showing some stonking stuff...

Serious stuff! I'm supprised there's no weather warnings issued 😆

I remember last year seeing the CFS plotted on a graph showing each daily run and a mean. we could use this to see any trends etc. does anyone know where to find this? It's pointless looking at the CFS every day when it will churn out huge inter run differences, it's only usefull of there's a solid trend.

[Steve C]

1993-94 wasn't too bad a winter if you like snow. I saw more snow during the week up to Christmas than I did the previous two winters combined.

 

Undoubtedly good for you, but where I live we had no decent snow (anything that lasted more than a day) between 1992 and 2008. I was starting to wonder whether we'd see the like again. The last 5 years have been way better here.

[MPG]

This could be pretty serious, CFS is showing some stonking stuff...

 

 

 

 

Please can you give me the link to these charts, just dont seem to be able to find them! Thanks in advance.

[Gael_Force]

These charts are from the CFS daily link on Meteociel. Use the 9 month option and pick the run/time span from options above the charts.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php

[feb1991blizzard]

1993-94 wasn't too bad a winter if you like snow. I saw more snow during the week up to Christmas than I did the previous two winters combined.

 

 

Underrated that one, a decent spell was threatened many times during that winter, we kept just getting inches / inch and halfs before finally a really potent spell arrived in feb, a good convective coupke of days on sun / mon before a front moved up from the south west and gave me a good 4 or 5 inches- brief milder spell then a reload the next sunday and a bit more fun as fronts attacked from the south west, finally late feb on a Friday the milder air broke through for good.

[Met4Cast]

Todays CFS is absolutely horrible! Brief toppler after brief toppler with the Zonal train running straight through the UK!

[Robbie Garrett]

Todays CFS is absolutely horrible! Brief toppler after brief toppler with the Zonal train running straight through the UK!

 

CFS 9 monthly 12z and 18z are the best runs, the morning runs are far from detailed and seem to default zonal. 

[johnholmes]

anyone watching each model run at the extended time scale and expecting anything meaningful really should find something better to do. Question?

Why if the synoptic models struggle quite often below T+240 is a model likely to give, day by day anything meaningful at 2-4 months ahead?

By all means look to see if there are any trends but nothing more. To suggest one run is 'better' than another at such time scales really is a waste of time in my view.

The longer term anomaly type charts be it CFS, UK Met or elsewhere are more likely to give trend indicators than the daily raw CFS outputs.

But by all means if you enjoy it then don't let me put you off-just don't get too disappointed from day to day.

Edited September 17, 2013 by johnholmes

[feb1991blizzard]

I have a feeling that these long range models will be taken notice of even more (inc GFS low res), not less and even more highs and lows will occur in the model thread this winter now that we don't have the calming influence of Stewart, at least until the strat thread becomes meaningful anyway, when it has cooled to its late Autumn temperature.

[Summer Sun]

So once again CFS points to nothing major temperature wise for winter getting a few runs showing this now

 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

So once again CFS points to nothing major temperature wise for winter getting a few runs showing this now

 

 

 

It is an average though so is never going to be seriously low. In one of those months you could easily see a freezing period which is cancelled out by a later milder period.

 

Also.............it is September! Many more runs to go.

[bobbydog]

So once again CFS points to nothing major temperature wise for winter getting a few runs showing this now

 

 

 

hmm. we are constantly told in the model thread to "ignore anything past t+144."

 

probably best not to take much notice of (at least) t+1800 hrs then......

[Mark Neal.]

So once again CFS points to nothing major temperature wise for winter getting a few runs showing this now

 

 

 

As quickly as it has changed, it can change once again!

[UV-RAY]

I gave up, how many time have some us said that it's about trends not individual daily runs.

[Methuselah]

I gave up, how many time have some us said that it's about trends not individual daily runs.

Just the very things that the CFS rarely seems to have...Endless near-random switches, yes; but trends?

[UV-RAY]

Just the very things that the CFS rarely seems to have...Endless near-random switches, yes; but trends?

But it doesn't Pete  if used correctly, of course if you view individual runs as gospel then yes your right.

 

At this rate we may as well use the MetO fabled SST's in May, which burnt their fingers many, many times, hence why they can't be bothered with the long range stuff anymore despite all the monies they receive!

Edited September 17, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Methuselah]

But it doesn't Pete  if used correctly, of course if you view individual runs as gospel then yes your right.

 

At this rate we may as well use the MetO fabled SST's in May, which burnt their fingers many, many times, hence why they can't be bothered with the long range stuff anymore despite all the monies they receive!

So why do the professionals ignore it? By all means, see how it compares to the other models' FI ranges? Not that they provide much of a benchmark, either?

 

Why are the LRFs, by those who claim to be able to 'read the CFS properly', no better than anyone-else's?

Edited September 17, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[UV-RAY]

So why do the professionals ignore it? By all means, see how it compares to the other models' FI ranges? Not that they provide much of a benchmark, either?

 

Why are the LRFs, by those who claim to be able to 'read the CFS properly', no better than anyone-else's?

Or why does a tax funded organisation not issue them anymore, we all know the weather is a fickle beast but if they are prepared to sell long range forecast to private businesses then surely they should be providing this free to their paymasters, you and I. Don't get me wrong I think the MetO are the best in the business at  7-10 day forecasting, but with all that alleged super computer power they surely can take a stab in the dark at least.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer