Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Isolated Frost]

I'm certainly in agreement with parts of your last paragraph in particular BFTP- unorthodox autumnal weather since 2007 has become more commonplace, whether it be cold N'lies, southerly tracking lows or warm southerlies; and in line with that, we have seen more blocked winters. Will be another interesting one to look at.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Thanks Aaron, the interesting times all round start to get going...including...no especially the forum!!!!

 

BFTP

 

Let the fun and games begin eh. Interesting RE solar activity. Looks like we could be heading into a very supressed period for sunspot activity. Will have to wait and see just how it affects our climate over the next few years!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Let the fun and games begin eh. Interesting RE solar activity. Looks like we could be heading into a very supressed period for sunspot activity. Will have to wait and see just how it affects our climate over the next few years!

 

Indeed, zero sunspots on 13th.  What wil be interesting for me will be how the winter reacts to a more 'iced' up arctic as we have had the 'ice free' reason for cold continents.  I don't wholly buy into it as during ice ages its all freezing...isn't it?  Simplistic I know but you get my gist...something else decides IMO.

I have to say how a 'bit surprised' I've been on some pretty low readings at 0500hrs we've had already.  Its been bloody cold!!!  I know I do shift work, and a minimum of a decent fleece has been needed.

 

BFTP

I'm certainly in agreement with parts of your last paragraph in particular BFTP- unorthodox autumnal weather since 2007 has become more commonplace, whether it be cold N'lies, southerly tracking lows or warm southerlies; and in line with that, we have seen more blocked winters. Will be another interesting one to look at.

 

That's a nice little reply I F, glad its been noticed 

 

BFTP

[Polar Maritime]

A dusting of fresh snow on the summit this evening and currently snowing down to the rescue shed at 2,800ft....

 

 

[AWD]

Hopefully this winter will be both cold and stormy!

Edited September 16, 2013 by SeasonalWeatherWatcher

[Gavin Hannah]

Indeed, zero sunspots on 13th.  What wil be interesting for me will be how the winter reacts to a more 'iced' up arctic as we have had the 'ice free' reason for cold continents.  I don't wholly buy into it as during ice ages its all freezing...isn't it?

 

 

A crucial fact of Ice ages which is often overlooked is that during an ice age, it's also a lot drier across large land masses.  Of course, it takes centuries to get to that stage so I don't think we need to worry about that just yet.

 

What I would be looking at is the possibility of another minimum period such as the Maunder etc.  The tenuous link between extended zero (near-zero) solar activity and a colder N.Hemi' is a good topic of discussion. Are we entering one? Has it started? The solar max went out like a damp squib and the winters of the last 4/5 years have all had extended cold and snowy periods and it looks as though the sun is going to sleep.

 

The changing nature of the Arctic sea ice seems to be driving/enhancing these winters across the N.Hemi' and a really good paper linked earlier discusses this.

 

Finally, in regard to the above, I would urge everyone to assess the situation across the entire N.Hemi' and not just our tiny island.  Being on the edge of the big blue pond, I think we'll always get the occasional sucker punch but, and in my opinion only, I do think the change begun in 2009/10. And while I could be completely wrong, I think it's going to be a while yet before it flips again.

[Summer Sun]

Temperature wise CFS shows nothing major in terms of cold

 

 

Once again its showing the blocking shifting eastwards as we move through winter

 

 

2m temperatures

 

Edited September 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[snowking]

Temperature wise CFS shows nothing major in terms of cold

 

 

Once again its showing the blocking shifts eastwards as we move through winter

 

 

2m temperatures

 

Despite its utter uselessness, if we are to take a face value conclusion from that particular run of the CFS - February would likely be a very snowy month with that sort of profile. Nothing spectacular temperature wise, but plenty of precipitation being thrown in to a shallow continental feed would usually = snowy fireworks, especially in the North there, with the average 850mb profiles sub zero.

 

Of course being the CFS, by 12z this will either have flipped to The Day After Tomorrow levels of cold, or an early February BBQ

 

SK

[Cheshire Freeze]

Despite its utter uselessness, if we are to take a face value conclusion from that particular run of the CFS - February would likely be a very snowy month with that sort of profile. Nothing spectacular temperature wise, but plenty of precipitation being thrown in to a shallow continental feed would usually = snowy fireworks, especially in the North there, with the average 850mb profiles sub zero.

 

Of course being the CFS, by 12z this will either have flipped to The Day After Tomorrow levels of cold, or an early February BBQ

 

SK

 

And the one thing to note in the NH pressure anomaly charts is yet again the suggestion of a -AO.

[Yarmy]

Ok, I've been looking through the CFS. There are 120 ensemble members each using one of 4 daily runs from the past 30 days as its initial conditions. The 40 members from the first 10 days are averaged together in the first set E1, the next 40 from days 11-20 are E2, and E3 is the last 10 days. Here's the current E1,E2, and E3 for 2m Temp anomalies in December:

 

 

Note the huge swathes of grey. As the key states, those are areas of expected skill less than 0.3. Or 'useless' in other words. The UK is always grey. Even the bits that aren't grey don't show a great deal of consistency: mostly it's just white meaning anything from -0.5c to 0.5c. 

[Summer Sun]

What does the grey over the UK suggest temperature wise?

[Yarmy]

What does the grey over the UK suggest temperature wise?

 

The grey is a mask that hides the places where the skill level of the model is expected to be less than 0.3. So, basically it's saying absolutely no idea. I'm prepared to believe it might have a chance of predicting broad trends (e.g. positive pressure anomalies to the N, for example), but even then it's hard to know because I can't find any verification stats.

[Robbie Garrett]

Models are shaping up as we get nearer to November.   Take a look at this first one, really getting those heights going above Greenland. 

 

 

 

Surely not again???  Nov/Dec 2010 all over again, 1070mb high over Greenland!!...

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

Models are shaping up as we get nearer to November.   Take a look at this first one, really getting those heights going above Greenland. 

 

 

 

Surely not again???  Nov/Dec 2010 all over again, 1070mb high over Greenland!!...

 

 

Thats one of those faux Greenland high..the real high pressure is somewhat further south west over Newfoundland and Labrador

[MPG]

Models are shaping up as we get nearer to November.   Take a look at this first one, really getting those heights going above Greenland. 

 

 

 

Surely not again???  Nov/Dec 2010 all over again, 1070mb high over Greenland!!...

 

 

One of those surface highs everyone seems to get confused with. Go by the colours and you cant go wrong.

Edited September 16, 2013 by MPG

[Summer Sun]

CFS this afternoon has -4 uppers a lot further south for December, January is more or less the same and February is less cold with the south into positive uppers +1 to maybe +3

 

 

 

2m temperatures are back into positive figures for February

 

 

So once again temperatures look nothing major for winter and for now I am sticking to my thoughts at the start of the month for winter

 

As a whole I think temperatures this winter will come in around average for the United Kingdom it's likely to be the mildest winter since the winter of 2011 / 2012 but not as mild as 2007 / 08

 

06z run to compare the above - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/?p=2788539

Edited September 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Mark Neal.]

UK Weather Forecasts who are an independent forecasting group, have issued a winter forecast. I have to say i find them far from the mark on many occasions, time will tell!

http://goo.gl/tV1ZCl

[feb1991blizzard]

Neither of those charts are too bad though, I would take any of them on the dates shown, the third one does have a massive slither straight through normal positioning of the PV, at the time of year when you least expect it.

 

The charts posted by Robbie Garrett im talking about.

Edited September 16, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS this afternoon has -4 uppers a lot further south for December, January is more or less the same and February is less cold with the south into positive uppers +1 to maybe +3

 

 

 

2m temperatures are back into positive figures for February

 

 

So once again temperatures look nothing major for winter and for now I am sticking to my thoughts at the start of the month for winter

 

 

06z run to compare the above - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77743-winter-20132014-forecastshopesdiscussion-thread/?p=2788539

 

And once again the AO is negative. Look at the bigger picture Individual blocking features and troughs will not be the same on every run.

[Summer Sun]

And once again the AO is negative. Look at the bigger picture Individual blocking features and troughs will not be the same on every run.

 

Where is the AO shown negative / positive on them charts?

 

CFS is something I'm still learning (well the finer points for winter anyway)

[PolarWarsaw]

For all of those who love not being able to move through sweat or heat stroke during the summer, enjoy the end of this weekend. It's only 6 weeks now until the real snow search starts,  for a good 4-5 months too. Is everybody ready for those mornings where the 0Z has 3 pages worth of comments at 5.30am? 

 

I sure am, just in time for the Ashes!

Edited September 16, 2013 by PolarWarsaw

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I have a quick question for the weather historians amongst you.  Other than 22nd November 2010, have there ever been any significant nationwide deep freezes that began earlier than it did in 2010?

 

I am guessing early 19th century?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Where is the AO shown negative / positive on them charts?

 

CFS is something I'm still learning (well the finer points for winter anyway)

 

You have to interpret that for yourself using the pressure anomalies. As you can see on the charts you posted, there are + anomalies across the polar regions with lower than average anomalies pushed to the mid latitudes. It doesn't necessarily mean the AO would be strictly negative as these are just anomalies BUT you can get a good idea.

[Methuselah]

Where is the AO shown negative / positive on them charts?

 

CFS is something I'm still learning (well the finer points for winter anyway)

In all seriousness, SS, I wouldn't bother too much about not being able to 'read' the CFS...I'm not even sure that there's even much correlation with what is shows for 3 months' time and what actually happens...Sparkicle?

 

IMO, using numerical models to reliably forecast future seasons is in its embryonic stage right now, and is entirely experimental in nature...So just multiply the 'errors' in the GFS (at T+264) by something approaching infinity and you shouldn't be too far wide of the mark... 

Edited September 16, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest Glosea4 model run is in chaps....here is pressure anomaly for Nov/Dec/Jan

 

 

Dec/Jan/Feb....Undercutter central

 

Edited September 16, 2013 by CreweCold