Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Zenarcher]

The CFS charts on NW Extra tell this story for winter at the moment,

 

Temps -

 

December mostly average.

January 1c to 2c below average.

February 1c below average.

March 1 to 2c below average.

 

Pressure anomaly charts show high pressure staying strong over Greenland and Iceland area through January to the end of March.

 

Could be a average start to winter but gets increasingly colder from January onwards.

 

It is early days yet though, if these charts that are updated weekly I believe, continue a trend like this confidence should grow.

Edited September 20, 2013 by weathermaster

[Summer Sun]

The CFS charts on NW Extra tell this story for winter at the moment,

 

Temps -

 

December mostly average.

January 1c to 2c below average.

February 1c below average.

March 1 to 2c below average.

 

Pressure anomaly charts show high pressure staying strong over Greenland and Iceland area through January to the end of March.

 

Could be a average start to winter but gets increasingly colder from January onwards.

 

It is early days yet though, if these charts that are updated weekly I believe, continue a trend like this confidence should grow.

 

Yes every Friday but I'm not sure on the time of the updates whether it be morning, afternoon or evening

[NorthernRab]

December 2011 was mild with a CET of 6.0C and little in the way of cold.  Last December was a month of two halves with the mild second half largely cancelling out the cold first half leading to a near average CET overall. 

 

Scotland actually got a fair bit of snow through cold zonality, if my memory serves me correctly it was quite good for the ski industry.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I agree LS...It's 'almost' as if the October snow-advance were a proxy for how the less-easy-to-discern individual factors are combining?

Yeah, that's an interesting way of looking at it but you're right enough, some of the same factors at work building up the initial snow cover required to in turn aid the blocking setup. I also think of it as increasing the 'resolution' of the image i.e. pinpointing where the blocking is most likely to set up.

At the moment I'd say it isn't shaping up quite as nicely as last year was at this point but there's still more than enough potential there for some decent cold, which is a far cry from the pre-2008/09 days.

[swfc]

Given the jump in change week to week in the cfs charts I find them interesting in the same way as the xmas forecast ! For some reason I have a gut feeling the uk is in or due a mild unsettled winter.the low solar output plus other pointers may indicate something totally different .hopefully I'm totally wrong but given the dry warm summer I fear were due a poor winter from a coldie perspective

[LomondSnowstorm]

Scotland actually got a fair bit of snow through cold zonality, if my memory serves me correctly it was quite good for the ski industry.

 

Yep, cold enough with significantly frequent snowfall for a good period of skiing, along with the added bonus (for them) of relatively clear roads from the central belt northwards due to the average temperatures.

 

Cold zonality is usually pretty good for Scotland in December because of the latitude, low solar insolation and the westerly vector countering the wishbone effect that affects a great many of us when the wind direction is more northerly:

 This was the first snowfall, which I remember most of us did pretty well out of, and in spite of uppers only around -4C we had frequent moderate snowfalls which brought temporary but reasonably good quality cover to the central belt with it piling up on the mountains, which lasted even through the very mild spell around Christmas Day when temperatures were around 14-15C. That was also the month that brought 'Hurricane Bawbag', followed by another vicious storm on I believe the 3rd January. The second half, while colder, was far less eventful with the blocking too far south for any significant cold or snow, and actually the best snowfall of 2011/12 generally, for the north and east of Scotland at least, fell on the 3rd April.

[RCT]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2328&mode=2&carte=0&run=0 

[Mark Neal.]

Hi All. Just found a few pictures of recent snowfalls, taken from the same place overlooking my back garden. Thought i'd share

 

1= February 2nd 2009

2= January 6th 2010

3= December 18th 2010

4= February 5th 2012

5= December 5th 2012

6= January 18th 2013

Edited September 20, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hi All. Just found a few pictures of recent snowfalls, taken from the same place overlooking my back garden. Thought i'd share

 

1= February 2nd 2009

2= January 6th 2010

3= December 18th 2010

4= February 5th 2012

5= December 5th 2012

6= January 18th 2013

 

no 5 rings no bells? must have missed out, but got snow on others

[Mark Neal.]

no 5 rings no bells? must have missed out, but got snow on others

That was a small feature which moved through into South Central England early on Wednesday 5th December, gave us a 1cm or so snow from 4:45-6am.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That was a small feature which moved through into South Central England early on Wednesday 5th December, gave us a 1cm or so snow from 4:45-6am.

 

Missed me, i do remember 6th, was a horrid day, turned milder from the west with heavy rain by 4pm

[Mark Neal.]

Missed me, i do remember 6th, was a horrid day, turned milder from the west with heavy rain by 4pm

Yep the cm of snow was gone by the Thursday evening as milder air pushed in and heavy rain with it. 

[cheese]

Not the UK, but the risk of snow in northern Scandinavia is increasing as we progress into next week.

[Gavin Hannah]

Anyone for renaming this the "Winter Nostalgia Thread" lol...  

[Isolated Frost]

In the last 4 years, here at Durham...

October (2012) was the 3rd coldest of the last 30 years.

November (2010) was the 3rd coldest of the last 30 years.

December (2010) was the coldest of the last 30 years, December (2009) was the 2nd coldest.

January (2010) was the 3rd coldest of the last 30 years, January (2013) was the 6th coldest.

February (2010) was the 3rd coldest of the last 30 years.

March (2013) was the coldest of the last 30 years.

 

I wonder if we'll see the trend continue...

[Tim Bland]

This would be nice for Christmas!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest CFS has gone mental for January with an anomaly of 6C below the average 850 hpa values.

 

 

Pressure anomaly...

 

 

Obviously one run means nothing in terms of producing a forecast as we all know but it's nice to see this scenario crop up again nonetheless.

Edited September 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[mcweather]

Hi Crewe Cold. The interesting thing with the bitter January that the CFS is showing a lot is that the pressure anomaly it shows is very very similar each time. There are a number of ways a January could be very cold but CFS is basically sticking to one scenario. So not only some consistency in its very cold forecast for January but also some consistency in its cause as well.  Interesting stuff

Edited September 21, 2013 by mcweather

[Methuselah]

This would be nice for Christmas!

image.jpg

It'll music-to-the-ears for all those Energy-Cartel bosses thinking about next Spring's bonus...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi Crewe Cold. The interesting thing with the bitter January that the CFS is showing a lot is that the pressure anomaly it shows is very very similar each time. There are a number of ways a January could be very cold but CFS is basically sticking to one scenario. So not only some consistency in its very cold forecast for January but also some consistency in its cause as well.  Interesting stuff

 

Yep pretty much the same areas each time RE pressure anomaly distribution (for the N Atlantic area anyway).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest CFS has gone mental for January with an anomaly of 6C below the average 850 hpa values.

 

Jan 850s.png

 

Pressure anomaly...

 

January anomaly.png

 

Obviously one run means nothing in terms of producing a forecast as we all know but it's nice to see this scenario crop up again nonetheless.

 

The teleconnection trends will very likely change by the time I make my Winter forecast, however, using the analogous years from the Autumn forecast, the Winter 500hPa pattern isn't a million miles from those CFS charts.  The difference is enough to change it from freezing cold to near average and wet.

 

500hPa GPH Anomalies

 

850hPa Temp Anomalies

 

Precip Anomalies

 

Still, even average uppers, northern blocking and plenty of precip would provide potential for some snowy spells.

[Summer Sun]

The met office ensemble mean maps pointing to an average or slightly above average winter for temperature

 

850hpa average to slightly above

 

 

2m temperature is also average to slightly above

 

 

Rainfall is average to slightly above

 

 

Pressure is higher to the NE rather than over Greenland the bulk of the UK sees average to slightly below average pressure

 

 

Based on those temperatures winter could come in around 0.5c above average giving a CET of around 4.1c making it the mildest winter since 2011 / 12 (4.5°C)

 

From today's Christmas forecast from the weather outlook

 

It looks as though high pressure will bring dry weather for a time during the latter part of September but more cyclonic conditions could develop in early October. There are some suggestions that Octobers which are dominated by cyclonic conditions are followed by milder winters

 

Any truth in the bit I've highlighted red?

Edited September 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[UV-RAY]

The met office ensemble mean maps pointing to an average or slightly above average winter for temperature

 

850hpa average to slightly above

 

 

2m temperature is also average to slightly above

 

 

Rainfall is average to slightly above

 

 

Pressure is higher to the NE rather than over Greenland the bulk of the UK sees average to slightly below average pressure

 

 

Based on those temperatures winter could come in around 0.5c above average giving a CET of around 4.1c making it the mildest winter since 2011 / 12 (4.5°C)

 

From today's Christmas forecast from the weather outlook

 

It looks as though high pressure will bring dry weather for a time during the latter part of September but more cyclonic conditions could develop in early October. There are some suggestions that Octobers which are dominated by cyclonic conditions are followed by milder winters

 

Any truth in the bit I've highlighted red?

If there was this long range forecasting business would be a piece of cake Gav.

 

As for those charts, the temp profiles don't match the height anomalies IMO, I did say in a previous posts though that i don't rate the GLOSEA model.

 

Edited September 21, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[feb1991blizzard]

The met office ensemble mean maps pointing to an average or slightly above average winter for temperature

 

850hpa average to slightly above

 

 

2m temperature is also average to slightly above

 

 

Rainfall is average to slightly above

 

 

Pressure is higher to the NE rather than over Greenland the bulk of the UK sees average to slightly below average pressure

 

 

Based on those temperatures winter could come in around 0.5c above average giving a CET of around 4.1c making it the mildest winter since 2011 / 12 (4.5°C)

 

From today's Christmas forecast from the weather outlook

 

It looks as though high pressure will bring dry weather for a time during the latter part of September but more cyclonic conditions could develop in early October. There are some suggestions that Octobers which are dominated by cyclonic conditions are followed by milder winters

 

Any truth in the bit I've highlighted red?

 

In any case Gav, not always northerly dominated Octobers are anticyclonic and a Northerly dominated October is not out of the question.

 

Edited September 21, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

 

If there was this long range forecasting business would be a piece of cake Gav.

 

As for those charts, the temp profiles don't match the height anomalies IMO, I did say in a previous posts though that i don't rate the GLOSEA model.

 

 

 

Both met office models are going for an above average winter the ensemble mean above and the probability maps

 

 

Mild with precipitation around average is the route the met office models are taking currently