Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Summer Sun]

In any case Gav, not always northerly dominated Octobers are anticyclonic and a Northerly dominated October is not out of the question.

 

A northerly dominated October seems a long shot at the moment CFS keeps going for high pressure to be over or very close by to the UK

 

[feb1991blizzard]

And although TC's and Arctic profile don't point to it at this stage nor do met forecasts, things can change quickly and although certainly not favourite, it could still be a more typical stormy Atlantic dominated October yet.

[Summer Sun]

And although TC's and Arctic profile don't point to it at this stage nor do met forecasts, things can change quickly and although certainly not favourite, it could still be a more typical stormy Atlantic dominated October yet.

 

One thing I will say is CFS is consistent for high pressure to dominate our weather next month giving us little in the way of rain temperatures keep flipping and flopping but pressure is consistent

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77189-autumn-2013-thoughts-prospects-and-forecasts/?p=2792464

[Cheshire Freeze]

Both met office models are going for an above average winter the ensemble mean above and the probability maps

 

 

Mild with precipitation around average is the route the met office models are taking currently

 

Gavin, I'm sure I've told you before that those percentage maps come from the same model....it's the Glosea4 model in % terms. The Glosea4 model is predicting high latitude blocking....that's the most important thing. 850's won't be anywhere near accurate this far out as they can be swayed massively by trough placement etc. The main trend is still there- the same trend as the August update....that is HP to the N of the UK.

 

I can't tell with you whether you're trying to be intentionally ignorant or just generally failing to grasp certain things? I'm having to repeat things over and over. That's not a dig btw, it's a genuine question so don't be insulted- I can't fathom it out. If it's the latter then I can try and respond a bit clearer to your posts as possibly I'm going round the houses a bit in my responses to you?

Edited September 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

One thing I will say is CFS is consistent for high pressure to dominate our weather next month giving us little in the way of rain temperatures keep flipping and flopping but pressure is consistent

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77189-autumn-2013-thoughts-prospects-and-forecasts/?p=2792464

And, hopefully, it'll prevent too much of an Atlantic influence from preventing further consolidation of cold air and snowcover way up to the North East?

[UV-RAY]

Gavin, I'm sure I've told you before that those percentage maps come from the same model....it's the Glosea4 model in % terms. The Glosea4 model is predicting high latitude blocking....that's the most important thing. 850's won't be anywhere near accurate this far out as they can be swayed massively by trough placement etc. The main trend is still there- the same trend as the August update....that is HP to the N of the UK.

Lol, flogging and dead horse spring to mind CC. Still you've got to admire Gavin's quest for mild just as much as our quest for cold.

[Summer Sun]

Gavin, I'm sure I've told you before that those percentage maps come from the same model....it's the Glosea4 model in % terms. The Glosea4 model is predicting high latitude blocking....that's the most important thing. 850's won't be anywhere near accurate this far out as they can be swayed massively by trough placement etc. The main trend is still there- the same trend as the August update....that is HP to the N of the UK.

 

I can't tell with you whether you're trying to be intentionally ignorant or just generally failing to grasp certain things? I'm having to repeat things over and over. That's not a dig btw, it's a genuine question so don't be insulted- I can't fathom it out.

 

From what I gather though blocking over Greenland is better though for those seeking cold weather? like it was back in 2010

 

 

August had the blocking over Greenland

 

 

September has a big shift eastwards

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

From what I gather though blocking over Greenland is better though for those seeking cold weather? like it was back in 2010

 

 

August had the blocking over Greenland

 

 

September has a big shift eastwards

 

 

That would still produce an undercutter scenario....if anything it could be more snowy- especially for your neck of the woods.

 

Also let's look at Nov/Dec/Jan

 

 

Jet well south of the UK

 

Also shown on the geopotential heights for Dec/Jan/Feb

 

A propensity for HP right across the N latitudes there. Jet well south.

[Gael_Force]

Gavin, I'm sure I've told you before that those percentage maps come from the same model....it's the Glosea4 model in % terms. The Glosea4 model is predicting high latitude blocking....that's the most important thing. 850's won't be anywhere near accurate this far out as they can be swayed massively by trough placement etc. The main trend is still there- the same trend as the August update....that is HP to the N of the UK.

 

I can't tell with you whether you're trying to be intentionally ignorant or just generally failing to grasp certain things? I'm having to repeat things over and over. That's not a dig btw, it's a genuine question so don't be insulted- I can't fathom it out. If it's the latter then I can try and respond a bit clearer to your posts as possibly I'm going round the houses a bit in my responses to you?

 

It is from the updated GloSea5 - been in use since July - wonder if the tweaks will make any difference to the accuracy;

 

The main improvements in the GloSea5 system are listed below:

[*]Improvements to the model horizontal resolution for both the atmosphere and ocean components: the new atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.833 ° by 0.556 Â° (~50 km in mid-latitudes); the new resolution for the ocean and sea ice components is 1/ 4°;

[*]Upgrade to ocean data assimilation: the new system uses NEMOVAR.

 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

[Cheshire Freeze]

It is from the updated GloSea5 - been in use since July - wonder if the tweaks will make any difference to the accuracy;

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

 

So the Glosea5 is the new Glosea4?

[Summer Sun]

Gavin, I'm sure I've told you before that those percentage maps come from the same model....it's the Glosea4 model in % terms. The Glosea4 model is predicting high latitude blocking....that's the most important thing. 850's won't be anywhere near accurate this far out as they can be swayed massively by trough placement etc. The main trend is still there- the same trend as the August update....that is HP to the N of the UK.

 

I can't tell with you whether you're trying to be intentionally ignorant or just generally failing to grasp certain things? I'm having to repeat things over and over. That's not a dig btw, it's a genuine question so don't be insulted- I can't fathom it out. If it's the latter then I can try and respond a bit clearer to your posts as possibly I'm going round the houses a bit in my responses to you?

 

Certainly not been ignorant still learning certain models the ensemble mean was a new one on me (I knew of the probability maps)

 

I'll stick to CFS I think nice and easy for me to understand

 

Edited September 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

Certainly not been ignorant still learning certain models the ensemble mean was a new one on me (I knew of the probability maps)

 

Awesome, just checking as this forum isn't free from the WUMs. Didn't think you were one!

[Isolated Frost]

No difference in them anom charts for me- first one was Nov Dec Jan, second one was Dec Jan Feb- fits in with my thoughts about a NW block come November, and a NE block in Jan/Feb.

[Gael_Force]

Certainly not been ignorant still learning certain models the ensemble mean was a new one on me (I knew of the probability maps)

 

It may just be that the search for cold and snow thread is not your natural habitat.

[UV-RAY]

No difference in them anom charts for me- first one was Nov Dec Jan, second one was Dec Jan Feb- fits in with my thoughts about a NW block come November, and a NE block in Jan/Feb.

I posted the very same thoughts a week or so ago, you haven't been stalking me have you IF.

[syed2878]

i just hope the pv sets up in our favour this winter and gives us snow and cold fans a winter to remembor.

[NeilN]

I would LOVE a White Christmas! December 2010 was easily the best winter month in recent times and I say this a hot weather lover. The snow in Birmingham was very thick, and it lasted around ten days. Seeing it on Christmas Day was a beautiful sight. Really made Christmas like Christmas that year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I would LOVE a White Christmas! December 2010 was easily the best winter month in recent times and I say this a hot weather lover. The snow in Birmingham was very thick, and it lasted around ten days. Seeing it on Christmas Day was a beautiful sight. Really made Christmas like Christmas that year.

 

Yep it was magical. Had Christmas down at a country pub a few miles away and the snow was thicker there. Was lovely....snowy and festive all around.

[Weather-history]

Thinking back to last winter, we had the first decent snowy breakdown of a cold spell for a while here on that Friday night of 25th January 2013. That was a feature that was lacking in those winters of 2008-09 to 2010-11.

[Static Prevails]

Thinking back to last winter, we had the first decent snowy breakdown of a cold spell for a while here on that Friday night of 25th January 2013. That was a feature that was lacking in those winters of 2008-09 to 2010-11.

That actually brought quite a lot of snow here, with some of the largest flakes I'd ever seen. You could see the shadows of the flakes from the lamp posts through the curtains.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

25th Jan, I had heavy snow and a lot of freezing rain, Sat 26th was unbelievably icy, slippiest day I think Ive known

[bobbydog]

what i want to see, is the best snowy bits of the last 3 winters, all rolled into one. now that would be a proper winter!

[Methuselah]

what i want to see, is the best snowy bits of the last 3 winters, all rolled into one. now that would be a proper winter!

All in one massive event...

[Summer Sun]

Winter last year here was full of marginal events those that brought snow were not major apart from one most had 2 or 3cm here and there with the odd 4 or 5cm thrown in the heaviest fall on a Friday night / early Saturday brought around 10cm most of it melted with in 24 hours

[Summer Sun]

Interesting conversation on twitter earlier this evening

 

https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/381488730592141312/photo/1