October forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition

[Roger J Smith]

13.4 and yes I know it's a new record.

[Methuselah]

13.4 and yes I know it's a new record.

I hope you're right, Roger!

[feb1991blizzard]

13.4 and yes I know it's a new record.

 

 

I was thinking something like that myself until a few days ago, that limpet Euro just doesn't seem to want to be smashed through but the Met office suggest unsettled and I don't think the track of the lows will be far enough south to make it cold but the models are at least toying with the idea of cooler and rain as far south as the CET zone now, if not convincingly so im sitting on the fence with my 10.7

Edited September 30, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Thundery wintry showers]

12.2C

[Don]

13.4 and yes I know it's a new record.

Well I hope we're not going to break any records this coming Winter.  For warmth that is!!

Edited September 30, 2013 by Don

[AderynCoch]

10.8

[BARRY]

9.7c for me

[davehsug]

11.3C please

[sundog]

11.5 for me please.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes im beginning to think the bulk of the shrewd entries have come in the last few hours, TWS wouldn't go high just for a bit of fun- he genuinely thinks very mild.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

The first half IS looking very mild. We are all gambling on what the latter half of the month brings beyond the FI range. If we kept the same pattern we could run 2001 close.

[easy-oasy]

11.7 for me please.

[Harve]

definitely sensible to change to 12.4c...

[J10]

10.9

[Great Plum]

11c please

[TonyH]

11.3c please

[Polar Gael]

12.5ºC for me please. 

 

#breakoutthebrolliesandbarbecues

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Sorry, I'm a day late.

 

Good October, possibly chance of "Indian summer" but I don't want to over-do it. 12.6 C 

Edited October 1, 2013 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[BornFromTheVoid]

I was very tempted to up my guess, but decided to stick with my Autumn forecast prediction.

 

Anyway, with a minimum of around 11C and a maximum of near 17C, the CET for today should be something close to 14C. Looking at the 12z GFS, the CET looks like being around

15.0C to the 2nd (16.0)

15.5C to the 3rd (16.5)

15.7C to the 4th (16.3)

15.2C to the 5th (13.2)

14.6C to the 6th (11.6)

14.4C to the 7th (13.1)

14.1C to the 8th (11.8]

 

Despite the very mild start, no daily records look under threat.

Edited October 1, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[UV-RAY]

I reckon my guess is wrong already unless we see much colder weather the second half of the month.

[smithyweather]

12c well above average.

[Summer Sun]

My guess of 11.1c maybe too low now lol never mind

 

somewhere closer to 12c may have been better

[DAVID SNOW]

My guess of 11.1c maybe too low now lol never mind

 

somewhere closer to 12c may have been better

Blimey  and after just 1 day, its like winter is over posts in November. Nobody knows what October will bring( day 10 onwards that is )

[SomeLikeItHot]

With half the month not even into the deepest FI part of the gfs and knowing how reliable that is, I think its way too early to write off the possibility of cold or average temps.

 

Should remember that September started well above average, only to go below average and with the ensemble mean pointing to a cold month end at mid month everything changed and it ended up above average.

Edited October 1, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[March Blizzard]

Blimey  and after just 1 day, its like winter is over posts in November. Nobody knows what October will bring( day 10 onwards that is:unknw: )

Can't believe the panicking already!