South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/10/13 15z ------>

[Gibby]

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

 

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2013

 

 

Friday will become cloudy, damp and windy but mild as some rain spreads NE across all parts of the region through the day. Most of the rain will be light and intermittent but some heavier bursts are possible in the West of the County with a moderate to fresh Southerly wind. It will be rather mild and breezy in the West of the county with temperatures still well above average at 17C.

 

Tonight will be another cloudy night with showery rain still around slowly dying down late in the night though not completely. Through the night it will become misty again over the hills with temperatures no lower than 11C. 

 

On Saturday and Sunday the weather will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places perhaps with thunder or, longer spells of rain at times but with some drier and brighter intervals as well, these most likely on Sunday.

 

Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions.

 

On Tuesday current thinking is that it will be a very windy and showery day with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind. A few brighter intervals are possible too. 

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 20:00 HRS ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 18TH 2013

Edited October 18, 2013 by Gibby

[ARTDEMOLE]

Light rain. Misty in the valley. Cloud Base 60 ft. Humidity 99%.  Temperature 13..7c.

[Andy Bown]

It's turning into another late summerlike afternoon, the 4th such afternoon in a row! Plenty of warm sunshine at the moment, fast moving Stratocumulus patches and breezy with the temperature rising at 16.7c!

 

The Warm Front raced NNE over this area between 11.00-11.30 with a few sharp showers.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Sun Is out ,.. 15.9c and wearing a pullover...

[Gibby]

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 18TH 2013

 

Tonight will stay cloudy over the area with a fresh SSE breeze. It will be a very mild night with temperatures unlikely to fall below 12C by dawn. There will be some drier interludes but with some outbreaks of rain too, some of which may be heavy locally.

 

On Saturday the weather will begin cloudy and damp but through the morning skies will brighten. It will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places later or even longer spells of rain for a time but with some drier and brighter intervals as well, these most likely later in the day. Temperatures will be on the warm side again around 17C in any afternoon sunshine and the fresh Southerly wind.

 

Sunday will be a bright day with sunshine and showers, again some of which could be heavy with thunder in places. Some drier spells will occur as well and it will again be a mild day for this time in October.

 

Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions.

 

On Tuesday and Wednesday current thinking is that it will be very windy and showery days with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain too. A few brighter intervals are possible in between.

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON SATUURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

[Guest William Grimsley]

It was mild with a light wind yesterday, here. High Temperature Yesterday: 19.6°C 14:16 High Wind Gust Yesterday: 17 mph 00:22 High Wind Speed Yesterday: 9 mph 00:28.

[Costa Del Fal]

Mild here today despite the rain at times. Was torrential around 5.15pm. Should be some good heavy showers this weekend, especially on Sunday. Warm.

[Gibby]

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

 

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

 

Today will see the weather begin cloudy and damp but through the morning skies will brighten. It will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places later or even longer spells of rain for a time but with some drier and brighter intervals as well, these most likely later in the day. Temperatures will be on the warm side again around 17C in any afternoon sunshine and the fresh Southerly wind.

 

Tonight will see further spells of broken cloud interspersed with occasional showers and a fresh to strong Southerly breeze. Some of the showers could contain some thunder and lightning here and there as they pass. It will be another unseasonably mild night with temperatures close to 12C.

 

Sunday will be a bright day with sunshine and showers, again some of which could be heavy with thunder in places. Some drier spells will occur as well and it will again be a mild day for this time in October. 

 

Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions.

 

On Tuesday and Wednesday current thinking is that it will be very windy and showery days with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain too. A few brighter intervals are possible in between. 

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON SATUURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

[ARTDEMOLE]

Sunny..18.7c.

[gottolovethisweather]

 

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

 

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

 

 

On Tuesday and Wednesday current thinking is that it will be very windy and showery days with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain too. A few brighter intervals are possible in between. 

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON SATUURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

 

 

Cheers Gibby. I'm liking the sound of next Tuesday and Wednesday. About time we had some windy weather IMHO, then the countdown to the cold and snowy progression can begin, after a couple of good blows. What's your gut feeling about next weekend and into the start of November. Whilst, its well into FI, I see some hope of the PV buggering off and perhaps a NE or N'rly flow ensuing at least for a day or two.

 

 

In future, any chance you could kindly limit the text size to 14 or whichever the default size is, as some folks may have issues reading it. Whilst its not too busy in here, I see your updates as being most informative, so Thanks again.

Edited October 19, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, back on the 13th October I was seemingly brave enough to jump into the "boiling cauldron" of the MOD thread and stated the following.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78005-model-output-discussion-12hrs-011013/?p=2806091

 

Just three days prior, I suggested that the current timeframe could be interesting in terms of a colder snap, well that went pants up so now, I'm having another look at the end of this month. The excerpt below is taken from my posting in the Northern Hemisphere Snow and Ice thread.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Nice to see this thread coming along in spite of what distinctly feels nothing like Winter outside. The same can be said of at least the next five days too, anywhere in the UK. Whatever, it's very early days and very promising outside of the UK to our North, North-East and distant East. Please keep things respectful in here and value each person's views.

 

 

 

Another encouraging sign, as long as it's verified in subsequent model runs, the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere profile is a-changing. Here's the NH view as of 26th October, when it hints at a broader change of stratospheric zonal flow, perhaps bringing North-westerly winds down to the surface over the UK.

 

 

Finally, the NH view as of 31st October, when it suggests a stratospheric zonal flow, bringing Northerlies, maybe East of North down to the surface over the UK.

 

 

All of this is a long way off but is certainly feasible in my opinion, we just need to build on this trend. One other thing, if there are any Strat experts in here, if I've got things wrong with my interpretation of the Strat charts, please let me know.

Edited October 19, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[textmum]

Well it was warm and sunny, got some washing dry, gardening done, then an hour and a half later, torrential downpour, black skies.  The UK weather rules again!

[ARTDEMOLE]

Had a downpour of 2.mm. Then the sun came out again.15.9c.

[wimblettben]

A few heavy showers came through earlier though with no thunder and the sun is now out with quite a lot of clear skies.

 

The wind has picked up quite a bit this afternoon with a max gust of 26mph and many gusts between 18mph and 24mph.

[AWD]

Typically strikes starting being recorded soon after the showers passed over me. Seems Gloucestershire had some thundery activity though.

Another chance, on a more widespread basis tomorrow though. Nothing better than a good autumnal convective period of weather!

[A.J]

yes, most lightning strikes were detected up over the Cotswolds some 25 miles or so to my north, north west........was very warm for the time of year earlier with temps hitting 19.4C here feeling quite muggy during the sunny spells around lunchtime.....heavy showers swept through here an hour or so ago giving torrential downpours

[wimblettben]

Isn't the most highest chance for something thundery suppose to be tonight?

[Dorsetbred]

Not a drop of rain today, did we miss something?

[Guest William Grimsley]

Isn't the most highest chance for something thundery suppose to be tonight?

Yeah and tomorrow. I may find myself half asleep in the morning.

[Andy Bown]

This morning was dull and very humid as we were affected by the front that gave persistent rain to the SE, then around midday the sky began to clear which allowed a few hours of summerlike sunshine! The trough became visible to the West as a row of TCu and CBs which gradually moved overhead between 15.00-16.00 with several sharp bursts of large raindrops before clearing to leave a sunny end to the day with a lovely view of the CBs as the trough moved away NE.

 

Eyes to tonight now as the next trough is showing its' hand to the SW including a number of lightning strikes, I wonder if these will survive inland overnight.

[festivalking]

Tale of 10 miles. Plymouth clear skys warm but windy, back at home on the foothills of dartmoor cloudy and cold. Love it!

[Gibby]

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST

 

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 19:00HRS ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

 

Tonight will start mostly dry with clear spells but after midnight much of the area will see occasional showers and a fresh to strong Southerly breeze. Some of the showers could contain some thunder and lightning here and there as they pass. It will be another unseasonably mild night with temperatures close to 12C.

 

Sunday will be a bright day with sunshine and showers, again some of which could be heavy and squally with thunder in places. Some drier spells will occur as well and it will again be a mild day for this time in October with temperatures close to 16C in the afternoon. It will be a rather breezy day across the area with a stiff SW breeze.

 

Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions.

 

On Tuesday and Wednesday current thinking is that it will be very windy and showery days with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain too. A few brighter intervals are possible in between.

 

On Thursday after a bright start cloud will thicken through the morning with SE winds increasing and rain spreading NE through the day, some heavy. It will remain mild.

 

Compiled By Martin Gibbs

 

NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 20TH 2013

Edited October 19, 2013 by Gibby

[Cakie]

Hoofing it down here. Don't think I will get much sleep tonight

[Mark Neal.]

Quiet in here. Dorset looks to be getting a pasting of very heavy rain right now.

[Costa Del Fal]

Lightning here in Falmouth.