Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Summer Sun]

Some very depressing output shown by both the GFS and UKMO with a deepening low forming off the main troughing and running east/ne in towards the UK.The ECM doesn't make much of this for the timebeing and I sincerely hope it stays that way, with trees still in leaf this could be very worrying and coming on top of already saturated ground it really is a very poor outlook if that storm verifies. In terms of track and as alluded to by JH, the deepening motion normally leads to that turn to the left or in this case a more northerly track.Overall its a pretty horrid outlook with this conveyor belt of depressions lined up to effect the UK.

 

Downgrades often happen who remembers "that ECM" last winter the was a big old downgrade, and I also remember the models hinting at a really deep low hitting the UK think it was around 960mb with around 6 days to go in the end it arrived at around 990mb so that downgraded significantly as well

[Zenarcher]

Just an example of how much changes we can see

 

December 11th 2011 models were showing a deep low over the UK,

 

 

Then when the actual day came it saw a large downgrade,

 

[Frosty.]

I think it's a fantastic outlook, this autumn has been dominated by benign sluggish weather patterns but now those who relish wild weather will get their fix, it's only fair.

[A.J]

just thought I'd pop in a few model comparisons for the T144 timescale.....All are in general agreement that the British Isles will be under the influence of low pressure, but have individual large variences on severity (or indeed non-severity) of the impact to the home nations, so IMHO these current solutions are worth taking note of, but do they warrant some of the OTT posts in this thread today?

 

 BoM: CFS:   CMA:

 

ECM:   GEM (T162 - worst solution)

 

GFS:   NavGEM:  

 

UKMO:

 

 

Edited October 22, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Iceni]

I think it's a fantastic outlook, this autumn has been dominated by benign sluggish weather patterns but now those who relish wild weather will get their fix, it's only fair.

 

One things for sure, the rooks will have a high old time. On my daily dog walks, I've noticed they actually play and practice their flying skills in a stiff breeze. They're not looking for food, but sort of dive bomb each other and have fun.

 

I suppose in this situation the models are nigh on useless. Great for the general outlook — warmer/colder, settled/unsettled, but 168 hrs before something specific and extreme? Nah forget it.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Iceni

[TwisterGirl81]

Something is brewing, I can feel it, most weather websites are hinting at something for Monday.....Met Office are saying severe gales, Metcheck are saying significant storm, weather outlook.com are forecasting 70mph gusts even at this stage and it's 6 days away from the event....

I do like some wild weather but if this comes true then I hope people will keep safe! I was too young when the 1987 storm hit and can't remember it although I remember the storm in the 90's and that was scary

[Mair Snaw]

Downgrades often happen who remembers "that ECM" last winter the was a big old downgrade, and I also remember the models hinting at a really deep low hitting the UK think it was around 960mb with around 6 days to go in the end it arrived at around 990mb so that downgraded significantly as well

Yes i remmeber a few big downgrades from the ECM last winter the biggest being the beast from the east that was there one day and gone the next...i also remember the GFS hinting at many a dart board during the winter months but again we didnt see any of them verify...thats not to say that this one will not verify and it would be very foolish to just dismiss it...i think if its still in the output at say t120 then it could be worth keeping and eye on...but then again this time last year FI was anytime after t72 and it stayed that way for the winter and into spring.....

[johnholmes]

The 00z ECM Ensembles are worth a look, would be nice if these were slightly easier on the eye to look through.

 

yes I find them very difficult with my eyesight so I am afraid I rarely use them but they are another useful tool for us to use to get the whole picture

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes models do downgrade, but sometimes they do get it right and even upgrade. Models didn't suggest gales to severe gales in Irish sea last night...right? Having said that even with a downgrade from GFS 06z and GEM [which is likely] as they are extreme outlooks it will still be troublesome. That is a strong jet and the SSTs are way above normal in NA and may well fuel whats coming.

 

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MR EXTREMES]

^{it seems solar output hits the roof and so does the weather looking likely a very stormy outlook reminds me very much of the late 90s early 2000s.}

^{these deep depressions really could be damaging intresting that the gfs and gem are very much the same.}

^{plenty of deep cold across the northern hemisphere and warm moist air from the tropics feeding the alantic very powerful jet straights at us I think this year will favour the opposite to the last 3 disappointing but realistic.}

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

just thought I'd pop in a few model comparisons for the T144 timescale.....All are in general agreement that the British Isles will be under the influence of low pressure, but have individual large variences on severity (or indeed non-severity) of the impact to the home nations, so IMHO these current solutions are worth taking note of, but do they warrant some of the OTT posts in this thread today?

 

UKMO: UW144-21.GIF

Interesting, the UKMO is 990, in a place where it could deepen substantially.  If you look at the GFS chart for T132  --  12 hours earlier, GFS is at 975, so 15mb lower.  Bearing in mind that the GFS tends to be progressive, 12 hours difference isn't that much and the MO at T144 doesn't look hugely different.

 

Will add graphics in a few mins, computer playing up

[Frosty.]

Autumn weather has no bearing on what happens in winter. The atlantic SST's are currently above average but they will drop nicely in the weeks ahead, solar activity will be moderate but the lag effect will mean the higher levels won't impact our weather in a negative way, and the siberian snow is piling up nicely, this should promote siberian blocking backing westwards this winter. As I said, the wild weather pattern doesn't mean we are in for a mild winter, I think we are more likely to have a slightly colder than average winter with a number of very cold spells and snaps during it's 12 weeks duration with some overlap from late autumn into early spring. : - )

[Yarmy]

^{it seems solar output hits the roof and so does the weather looking likely a very stormy outlook reminds me very much of the late 90s early 2000s.}

^{these deep depressions really could be damaging intresting that the gfs and gem are very much the same.}

^{plenty of deep cold across the northern hemisphere and warm moist air from the tropics feeding the alantic very powerful jet straights at us I think this year will favour the opposite to the last 3 disappointing but realistic.}

 

 

Solar Flux is currently in the range 120-140. Well below the peaks even in this cycle, and way below the peaks in recent cycles. Besides, in January this year it hit 175 and the UK got a load of snow. 

 

Just seems like fairly typical Autumn weather to me. Anyway, here come the 12Zs.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Yarmy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

^{it seems solar output hits the roof and so does the weather looking likely a very stormy outlook reminds me very much of the late 90s early 2000s.}

^{these deep depressions really could be damaging intresting that the gfs and gem are very much the same.}

^{plenty of deep cold across the northern hemisphere and warm moist air from the tropics feeding the alantic very powerful jet straights at us I think this year will favour the opposite to the last 3 disappointing but realistic.}

I'm watching this carefully and if we do get more serious weather what the sun's condition is.

 

BFTP

[Mucka]

Something is brewing, I can feel it, most weather websites are hinting at something for Monday.....Met Office are saying severe gales, Metcheck are saying significant storm, weather outlook.com are forecasting 70mph gusts even at this stage and it's 6 days away from the event....I do like some wild weather but if this comes true then I hope people will keep safe! I was too young when the 1987 storm hit and can't remember it although I remember the storm in the 90's and that was scary

I have the same feeling that we may well see a significant storm next week, certainly the potential is there at least.

 

Personally I would be more inclined to think later in the week than earlier, say around the 31st rather than the 28th but of course there is no way to predict these things with any accuracy until much nearer the time.

 

At least it gives us something to look out for while the zonal train is tooting.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Mucka

[Snowman.]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013102206/gfs-0-144.png?6

 

lets hope that doesn't verify then....

My birthday,

 

great

[bobbydog]

06z

 

 

12z

 

 

BANG and the low is gone!!.....

[summer blizzard]

If that deep low appearing on the GFS & ECM verifies, it seems we could have been a bit harsh on that guy on that YouTube video who predicted that category 3 hurricane & the worst storm for 300 yrs would hit the UK at the end of October!! But still plenty of time for a big downgrade!

 

Unless the storm suddenly manages to develop a symmetrical warm core then he'd still be wrong.

[damianslaw]

Not surprising to see the models suggesting very potent deep low pressure formation - the temperature gradient contrasts between the mid atlantic and arctic are ramping into gear hence the projected powerful jet streak steering deep low pressure systems.

 

The outlook is very normal for the time of year, in a previous post I said how on average the last week of October is one of the most unsettled and stormiest weeks of the year , its just been a while since we have seen such conditions.

 

When I think of late October I always think of autumnal gales and heavy rain, not dry sunny weather or necessarily cold weather, more often than not mild air wins out at this time of year, but it would be good to see the first air frost of the season before the month is out, nights recently have been exceptionally and unseasonably mild and the grass is growing like it does in April! and weeds are thriving still... its turning into a very long season for gardeners!

[Dan the Man]

Blimey, you can't say that those isobars being that close is normal!

 

As has been mentioned a number of times, its way too early to be 'searching for cold'. Yes, it has been unseasonably warm, but October is often the "holding pattern" for weather ahead. It can change very quickly.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Dan the Man

[johnholmes]

pandit-scholar, on 22 Oct 2013 - 14:55, said:

If that deep low appearing on the GFS & ECM verifies, it seems we could have been a bit harsh on that guy on that YouTube video who predicted that category 3 hurricane & the worst storm for 300 yrs would hit the UK at the end of October!! But still plenty of time for a big downgrade!

I would disregard that prediction almost as much as one can disregard the warnings of this winter being the worst in x 100 years.

Cat 3 hurricanes cannot reach the UK and the probability of it being worse than some storms in the last 25-30 years is probably zero in my view anyway.

[The PIT]

 

pandit-scholar, on 22 Oct 2013 - 14:55, said:

I would disregard that prediction almost as much as one can disregard the warnings of this winter being the worst in x 100 years.

Cat 3 hurricanes cannot reach the UK and the probability of it being worse than some storms in the last 25-30 years is probably zero in my view anyway.

 

Never say cannot John. Just say highly improbable.

Again deep FI dartboards are nothing to get excited about appear on daily basis in winter. Get worried when they still there at T120. Talking of dartboards I see yesterdays has been consigned to the dustbin although it did make it down to T150 something yesterday before disappearing overnight.

In the meantime it's looking like we're going to lose this really warm air and drop back towards normal in the near future. Still looks wet though and the slugs will be enjoying it. 

[cobbett]

wow !

 

 

[TwisterGirl81]

Ok next Mondays low seems to have all but disappeared in tea times GEFS, I still cannot get used the unpredictability of these models

Edited October 22, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[radiohead]

The idea of a severe storm looking less likely now, with both the GFS and GEM backing away from that.

 

120-144 UKMO on Meteociel seems to be delayed in updating.

 

Edit : UKMO 144

 

Edited October 22, 2013 by radiohead