Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Paul]

Jo's week ahead forecast - wet, windy and in the main, mild..

 

[Jimmyh]

Am i right in noticing that the jet stream is projected to be right over the country from middle of next week. Think that the ferocity of the jet stream coupled with the low pressure will be quite an interesting period of weather coming up. Hold onto your hats guys and girls gonna get interesting...

[The PIT]

Well the first Autumn storm moves down to T153 still well outside the reliable time frame but worth keeping an eye on.

Meanwhile wet mild with enough of a breeze to blow the autumn leaves off before I get a chance to photograph them in the sun.

[lorenzo]

October determined to go out with some ferocity on the GFS 12z which someone seems to have poured a can of Red Bull in at initiation.

 

Vicious looking low appearing across the ensembles, even the mean would be more active than what we are used to at present.

 

 

Mean

 

Wild jet profile also visible in the suite. For example this 300km/h rocket.

 

UKMO looking poised also, over to the ECM to see what it makes of things..

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2013 by lorenzo

[pandit-scholar]

If that low comes off on 28/10 & 29/10 as projected on the ECM the South would get a real bashing!! Thankfully it's still a long way off!!

Edited October 21, 2013 by pandit-scholar

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me GEM shouldn't be discounted, it picked up quite early the very unsettled pattern developing.  Below shows precisely the sort of track I envisaged with an impactual storm or two.  I'm not discounting severity either....wow that would be some event.

 

 

BFTP

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Captain Shortwave]

For me GEM shouldn't be discounted, it picked up quite early the very unsettled pattern developing.  Below shows precisely the sort of track I envisaged with an impactual storm or two.  I'm not discounting severity either....wow that would be some event.

 

 

BFTP

 

 

 

Trouble is the GEM keeps throwing these storms up which then don't materialise. It picked up one for around the 29th October which got backing from the GFS and ECM, but now the GEM and now the latest ECM run have eased it back 

Previous run

GEM

 

The GFS still wants it

Edited October 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[karlos1983]

If that low comes off on 28/10 & 29/10 as projected on the ECM the South would get a real bashing!! Thankfully it's still a long way off!!

Bring it on!!!

[lorenzo]

ECM a much calmer solution than the rampant GFS 12z.

 

GEM explosive again, also noticed it's tendency to crank up Lows with continued regularity, jet profile below.

 

ECM ensemble map will be worth a look this evening to see how many clusters are in there.

 

[Panayiotis]

ECM getting colder at 192hrs on this run! 

[Captain Shortwave]

There we go, if this verified it would be the first widespread frost across the UK this season

What do we have here

Interesting to see the ECM split the tropospheric vortex, gets one piece to Siberia and the other over Canada, Scandi high just pops up out of nowhere

Edited October 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

It may not be settled nor cold, but the weather models are certainly showing some interesting synoptics again. Autumnal with low pressure systems. GEM has been showing a very deep area of low pressure, which would bring very stormy weather to our shores. Also over the next 7 days is the total rainfall accumulation with western areas seeing over 50-70mm of rain currently being projected. It could be a very stormy Halloween with one of those once in every so often storms passing through our shores. Something to watch out for!

[Mark Neal.]

ECM ends with a high building over Scandinavia. Settled over UK with chillier air.  

[tinybill]

It may not be settled nor cold, but the weather models are certainly showing some interesting synoptics again. Autumnal with low pressure systems. GEM has been showing a very deep area of low pressure, which would bring very stormy weather to our shores. Also over the next 7 days is the total rainfall accumulation with western areas seeing over 50-70mm of rain currently being projected. It could be a very stormy Halloween with one of those once in every so often storms passing through our shores. Something to watch out for!

just had  look from now to deep fantasy  world still plenty  of  rain  to  come  so could be problems  with  flooding soon as the ground is sodden

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

[Skullzrulerz]

ECM ends with a high building over Scandinavia. Settled over UK with chillier air.  

So Cold End Mouth?

[Mark Neal.]

just had  look from now to deep fantasy  world still plenty  of  rain  to  come  so could be problems  with  flooding soon as the ground is sodden

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

Yes relentless unsettled weather showing across the models mainly. The ECM does end on a settled note, which would bring cooler conditions and chilly nights, fog in all, interesting to see where that OP run sits in its ensembles. 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, ECM at day 10 may not be supported by it's ensemble later on

 

Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 21st 2013.All models show the unsettled and mid theme lasting throughout this week and the weekend. In the next 4-5 days mild weather will persist as all models show Low pressure continuing to feed NE to the West of the UK pulling warm and very moist Southerly winds over Britain with spells of heavy rain and showers off and on for the rest of the week. By the weekend winds will veer more towards the West and temperatures will fall back somewhat but the weather looks like remaining windy and unsettled with rain and showers at times.

 

GFS then leads us into a stormy spell early next week as an intense Low moves East to the North of Scotland driving Westerly gales and heavy rain and showers and it will be chilly enough for some sleet or snow showers on Northern mountains. Thereafter things stay very changeable and chillier than of late with Low pressure becoming cut off near Southern England maintaining cloudy and rainy weather here while the North has a drier and colder interlude with night frosts possible. The end of the run becomes windy and unsettled again for all as the Atlantic regains control.

 

UKMO tonight shows a belt of low pressure to the North of Britain next weekend with strong West or WSW winds bringing troughs quickly East through all of Britain with outbreaks of rain or showers at times in temperatures back to the seasonal average.

 

GEM shows a very unsettled period next week with strong and rather colder winds bringing showers and longer spells of rain across the UK with some snow on Northern hills and mountains. Late in the run a vigorous depression rushes NE  into Southern Britain with potentially storm force winds and heavy rain for a time soon after midweek while the North stays rather colder and showery.

 

NAVGEM too is deeply unsettled next week with slacker winds than of late but much cooler conditions with some heavy showers with hail and thunder a common feature of the weather between short sunny or clear intervals.

 

ECM starts next week windy and unsettled with rain and showers clearing SE so that by midweek a weak High pressure area slips SE across Britain with dry and bright weather when, if skies stay clear at night a frost may occur. The run ends with High pressure having bloomed over The Baltic States with a SE flow over Britain with mostly dry and fine weather if rather chilly with the chance of overnight mist, fog and frost patches.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a very unsettled and often wet two weeks to come. After the mid weather of this week eases away rather chillier air arrives at the weekend and lasts through next week. Thereafter, average temperatures will ensue with rain and strong winds a common feature for all.

 

The Jet Stream continues to blow strongly over or just to the South of the UK over the coming week and probably longer. 

 

In Summary tonight there is still plenty of support for a prolonged period of unsettled weather with rain and strong winds the main features of the period. Low pressure looks destined to push NE to the West of Britain before pulling Eastwards to the North of Britain next week with strong and cooler Westerly winds on there Southern flank. It would be amiss of me not to mention the Day 10 chart of ECM tonight with it's large High forming rapidly to the ENE of Britain by midweek next week which of it were to verify would put a different slant on the weather. However, in view of it's isolation I have a feeling it will not be supported within it's ensemble group later and will probably of gone on the midnight run.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[Mark Neal.]

So Cold End Mouth?

I'm guessing your meaning month  Possibly but this is the first time it seems today looking at most runs from all the models, it could be a outlier. Though the set up from the ECM would bring chillier weather, foggy and something more settled after all the rain. 

[draztik]

Day 10 from the ECM, is lacking any form of support, and expect its ensembles to further isolate it. Edit; completely agree with Gibbys assessment re ecm.

Edited October 21, 2013 by draztik

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm and Gfs kinda agree at this time next week with some sort of stormy low followed by colder conditions!  Worth a mention anyway   

[shotski]

JMA ensemble forecast would seem to back up ECM at day 10 for a rise in pressure to our north east.

 

But possibly a little too East to greatly affect our weather.

 

 

Shotski.

 

[Frosty.]

It's GREAT to see some colder uppers (T850 hPa) appearing on the charts, shown here on tonight's Ecm 12z op run, nice to see the shades of blue arriving. I also like the look of the GEFS 12z control run tonight, nice cold blast sweeping south with a lot more bite to it than last time if it verified..things are finally looking up for colder prospects not too far into the future.  BRING IT ON

[Cloud 10]

Certainly looks like an oddball run from the ECM this evening compared to the 00z ensemble mean.

 

op. run....http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102112/ECM101-240.GIF

 

00z ens.mean...http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102100/EDM101-240.GIF

 

 

Interesting that the NAEFS was toying with the end-of -month scandi high a while back.

[bobbydog]

Ecm and Gfs kinda agree at this time next week with some sort of stormy low followed by colder conditions!  Worth a mention anyway   

 

the GFS is a little worrying!

 

 

[Gaz1985]

A pure nasty area of low pressure, but we all know GFS enjoys to ramp up the low pressure systems so I wouldn't be surprised to see this much weaker by then