Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[asmith07]

Every year, most years, some years, or occasionally? I'm not denying it, but as an avid studier of historical weather I'd just like to know what you mean, and what your source is. Actually, if the Wikipedia article is to be trusted, it may not be so rare even now: "Snow can be found in gullies on the north side of Cross Fell as late as May in most years. In some years, lying snow has been known to persist until July and fresh snowfall in June (mid-summer in the Northern Hemisphere) is common."

I live in the Eden valley in Cumbria and I have known snow drifts last well into May up on Cross Fell on a few occasions recently. Not so much in June though. We did have fresh snowfall above 400m on the pennines on the 23rd May this year. I have a great picture I should probably upload. As far as historical snow goes, my friends Dad tells a tale of a huge snow drift at the back of Dufton Pike lasting all year round but that was when he was in his early teens (He'll be about 60). 

[MP-R]

apparently we will be heading for a blocking over Greenland heading into Jan, does anyone know if there is any truth in the matter, lets hope so

 

Hints of that appearing in the models with lows tracking further south into the new month.

[summer blizzard]

Indeed,  I've lost count the number of times I've read how the winter of 46/47 was mild prior to the February, as you highlight this is a popular misconception and urban myth.

 

If mild is now defined as a December CET of 3.1C, i'd like some of that please.

[hillbilly]

Every year, most years, some years, or occasionally? I'm not denying it, but as an avid studier of historical weather I'd just like to know what you mean, and what your source is. Actually, if the Wikipedia article is to be trusted, it may not be so rare even now: "Snow can be found in gullies on the north side of Cross Fell as late as May in most years. In some years, lying snow has been known to persist until July and fresh snowfall in June (mid-summer in the Northern Hemisphere) is common."

I read it in 'cool brittania',it described cross fell as a hill carrying snow for 10 months of the year,will have to read it again to be sure ,I guess it was describing the cool period up to Victorian times.I believe the winter 1978/1979 would not have been far from this as snow lasted to august 18th

[hillbilly]

1947's severe cold lasted a lot longer than a couple of weeks - essentially the last nine or ten days of January right through till a week into March (later in Scotland), a total for most of six to seven weeks. The CET mean was below 1C for 45 consecutive days, all but five of those below 0C (and usually well below). Even Kew in outer London had air frosts every night of February but two, despite not seeing any sun at all for 20 days of the month, and never saw the temp rise above 40F (4.4C). The Met Office says snow fell somewhere in the UK on 55 days in a row, though I can't quite make that add up - I guess they include Scottish mountains.

 

 

There is a widespread misconception that there had been no cold weather at all in 1946-7 before the bitter cold arrived in the later part of January. In fact - unlike this year - there had been a cold period for much of the country, including widespread snow, for over a week from 15th-22nd December. My parents were married in central London on 20th December 1946, and snow was lying on the ground - the CET mean shows 8 consecutive days <1C, three of them <0C. There was then another, albeit brief cold snap in early January, with two days' CET mean <0C, before the mild period of the 11th-18th. Things then progressively cooled until the real event arrived around the 22/23rd.

I was making the point that our coldest winters can be mild at times ,not that December had been mild.You cannot write off this winter just because of a mild December.

[hillbilly]

I live in the Eden valley in Cumbria and I have known snow drifts last well into May up on Cross Fell on a few occasions recently. Not so much in June though. We did have fresh snowfall above 400m on the pennines on the 23rd May this year. I have a great picture I should probably upload. As far as historical snow goes, my friends Dad tells a tale of a huge snow drift at the back of Dufton Pike lasting all year round but that was when he was in his early teens (He'll be about 60). 

I find that difficult to believe,but it may need more investigation,the longest recorded is that of 1979,probably only 1947 ,maybe 1963 could challenge this,yet '47 had a hot summer and '63 finished much earlier in the year compared to 1979!1916/1917 would be my challenger!

[boywonder]

Cairngorm 20 cm Snow predicted in next 3 days.

Glencoe 35 cm

Nevis range 21 cm.

 

The Resorts are really getting a heavy pasting right now.

 

Only if I had my university in northern Scotland.

Edited December 23, 2013 by boywonder

[boywonder]

 

Glencoe Right now

 

This is tempting for the coming weekend.

 

 

 

[osmposm]

I was making the point that our coldest winters can be mild at times ,not that December had been mild.You cannot write off this winter just because of a mild December.

 

I'm not writing it off - look at February 1991. Just pointing out that in 46-47 the situation was markedly different from this winter, in that very cold continental air was already lurking not far away in December, and had made it into the country for a week before Christmas (with a repeat in the SE early in the New Year) - see here and here - before it returned with a vengeance much later. So far this year there's been little deep cold air to be found even on the continent, and that's a worry. It's not impossible (as '91 shows) that some will get here eventually, but its absence anywhere makes it rather harder to achieve.

[meathead]

Models have started showing proper cold as we get into January. I think a gradual cool down from xmas day is on the cards. Let's hope some blocking develops

[bluearmy]

where is JM's big block?  i thought it was supposed to show from the 23rd.  ironic we have some of the lowest dam's and pressure recorded when he predicted a big block taking control.

[meathead]

Don't really understand this thread. The models have finally started showing some proper cold and this forum has suddenly gone quiet??

[Summer Sun]

Don't really understand this thread. The models have finally started showing some proper cold and this forum has suddenly gone quiet??

 

Maybe because its Christmas?

[Captain Shortwave]

where is JM's big block?  i thought it was supposed to show from the 23rd.  ironic we have some of the lowest dam's and pressure recorded when he predicted a big block taking control.

He's still bashing the metoffice (as per usual), claiming victory over them saying it's snowing in parts of the country. Unfortunately a 12C yesterday and 9C today suggests that he should shut his trap 

If there was ever going to be a Christmas miracle then I would take that!!! 

Edited December 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

He's still bashing the metoffice (as per usual), claiming victory over them saying it's snowing in parts of the country. Unfortunately a 12C yesterday and 9C today suggests that he should shut his trap 

If there was ever going to be a Christmas miracle then I would take that!!! 

 

seriously?  has he no shame?  (or maybe a shrinking paid up website membership forcing his hand).

[Weather-history]

Latest CFS update

I beginning to wonder if CFS actually stands forComplete Fantasy Scenarios....,,,,Merry Christmas.

[hillbilly]

A merry xmas to all.....

yet it does seem that if we do not get any wintery weather in the next few weeks we may as well close down this weather forum and all those bigging up this winter can crawl down the deepest hole..........yes the weather has beat us all again!!!!!!!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

https://twitter.com/fascinatingpics/status/415648876763566080

Would love to visit here as looks like they get a Madden Winter regularly! Lol! Merry Christmas everyone

[Methuselah]

I beginning to wonder if CFS actually stands for

Complete Fantasy Scenarios

....,,,,Merry Christmas.

Complete FS would be my guess, WE...happy Christmas everyone!

[feb1991blizzard]

We either need Ian Fergusson or Snowking tonight please to do us the honours of revealing all in a short while, really grateful if either of you could.

[EML Network]

I beginning to wonder if CFS actually stands forComplete Fantasy Scenarios....,,,,Merry Christmas.

Cannon Fodder System, or perhaps curious forecasting system. 

 

Either way it's been well off the mark for December. 

 

Looking ahead and it seems like more of the same to me, lots of low pressure systems hurling themselves into the UK, with smaller ones spawning en route, some vigorous others not. 

 

I still think the most likely outcome is for High Pressure to meander back into the UK from the South West and we end up with 1/2 of winter gone and right back to where we started at the beginning of Dec. 

 

Who knows...maybe Feb can come to the rescue ??

[Froze were the Days]

Cannon Fodder System, or perhaps curious forecasting system. 

 

Either way it's been well off the mark for December. 

 

Looking ahead and it seems like more of the same to me, lots of low pressure systems hurling themselves into the UK, with smaller ones spawning en route, some vigorous others not. 

 

I still think the most likely outcome is for High Pressure to meander back into the UK from the South West and we end up with 1/2 of winter gone and right back to where we started at the beginning of Dec. 

 

Who knows...maybe Feb can come to the rescue ??

 

Infact what you have said isn't correct, what has been incorrect about the CFS is the numerous height anomalies posted by various members for each month and I haven't a clue where they came from as they certainly didn't relate to the 1 month and 6 month runs which I was following almost run by run for a few weeks or so at the end of October and November!

December regularly modeled zonal unsettled conditions and that is what we are/have experienced, January largely showed a 'cold' spell/blip towards the end of the first week and towards mid-month and then back to more Atlantic conditions.

So these posts that showed larger height anomalies to the north and north east for each month were all a bit perplexing and misleading in my opinion.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[Summer Sun]

For those who may have missed the update over Christmas the met office's contingency planners forecast has updated for January to March

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2875179

[hillbilly]

Maybe it is time for those who were bigging up this winter to give us a bit more detail  as if these forcasts are ti go by we could actually end up with one of the mildest winters on record......I hope that is not the case,yet in this decade of extremes it seems more likely to be the case!

[Snowynorth]

Like this run from the Gfs.

 

Edited December 27, 2013 by iamstuart