Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Frosty.]

Epic post chio, and as I said this morning, all aboard the polar express...the cold is coming folks, as soon as I saw how amplified the ecm 00z ensemble mean was looking by mid november. I think it really really really could happen. :- )

[radiohead]

[Mair Snaw]

I see the pub run has been on the Gin and Juice again....if that starts to get close to t120 then i will start to get excited...a very nice chart to see and hope to many more... must keep reminding myself its just one chart from one run!!

[bobbydog]

 

Chiono- quote- "stonking pacific ridge"

 

above anomaly chart showing past years with just such a "stonker"

 

note the years...... (62/63).... just saying......

[Frosty.]

Yes bigsnow but there has been a lot of other charts today going for cold, there looks to be good support for some type of cold shot with a risk of snow, I think coldies are going to be drooling at some wintry output in the days ahead.

[radiohead]

Some stunning output in the 18Z ensembles.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some stunning output in the 18Z ensembles.

 

 

The PV crumbles on this perturbation. More holes than a swiss cheese

 

[Mark Neal.]

Morning all. Op wasn't as exciting on the 00z GFS as 18z wonder why  

 

Still some very interesting ensembles had a quick look through and found these 2 exciting. Something to keep the coldies interested as the Pacific Ridge helps things from a cold perspective

 

[Mair Snaw]

Morning all. Op wasn't as exciting on the 00z GFS as 18z wonder why

 

Still some very interesting ensembles had a quick look through and found these 2 exciting. Something to keep the coldies interested as the Pacific Ridge helps things from a cold perspective

 

gefs.png EYE CANDY.png

 

Mark how many times has the 00z been the sober brother to the pub run?? still as you say some very good runs starting to develop...i really would like to see some of these still coming out at t120 or less...it certainly is going to be a very interesting time to be model watching..as a coldie i will be looking for some exciting runs ahead...

[Average Joe]

Lots of excitement all of a sudden with regards to cold "potential". Talk of change around mid-month (which is 7 days away if my maths is correct), and yet reading Mr. Gibbs summary I see this....so you'll excuse me while I sit & wait to see what happens. 

 

In Summary the weather looks like being very changeable over the period with fast changing scenarios between mild and cloudy weather with some rain, especially 

in the North and West mixed with brighter and drier weather if colder with wintry showers and night time frosts more especially over the North and East. All in all 

it looks a typical Autumn pattern of weather over the next few weeks with something for everyone unless it's severe frosts, fog and snow your after.

[shedhead]

Once again nothing across the overnight model suite to suggest any cold weather, but perhaps of more immediate interest to many (especially as it's still only Nov) is the GFS's predicted rise of pressure in the south by next Friday, which IF it verifires would give some welcome respite from what will be at least 4 weeks of unsettled weather by then.

 

 

ECM goes for a similar set up, albeit one that would probably collapse somewhat quicker...

 

UKMO have the HP center farther SW at 144hrs, but with pressure also looking set to rise by Friday, especially across the south.

 

So all in all a promising set of charts for those who simply seek a break from the rain and are not just solely fixated on raging blizzards and sub zero temps.

Edited November 8, 2013 by shedhead

[terrier]

So all in all it seems a very typical outlook with no real cold shots showing up this morning. But at least it looks like settling down with high pressure taking charge. Which is no bad thing. Hopefully we will see the cold prospects showing up abit later in the season.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, It seems the chances of a pattern change that was hinted at yesterday has evaporated for now although GEM does hold an olive branch for 'coldies' to cling on to this morning. 

 

All models show a showery Westerly flow across the UK with embedded troughs bringing more prolonged showers or outbreaks of rain East across the UK for a time today and again tomorrow. On Sunday a swing of winds to the NW will herald the arrival of a transient ridge of High pressure with light winds, sunny spells and rather cold weather before winds back SW and bring a warm front across the UK on Monday with rain and strong winds for a time. By Tuesday the cold front attached to Low pressure crossing East to the North will cross SE over the UK with another band of rain with a return to NW winds and cooler conditions by midweek with some scattered showers over the North, wintry on hills.

 

GFS then keeps High pressure close to the SW of England for the remainder of next week and into the weekend with a frontal boundary somewhere over the UK giving further outbreaks of rain at times alternating with clearer and colder weather, this felt more in the North and NE where winds will be strongest at times. In the SW there will be very little rain but a lot of cloud overall with average temperatures under lighter winds. Little changes over the second phase of the run with High pressure remaining to the South of the UK with the North seeing the biggest share of wind and rain while the South stays dry and at times somewhat colder and misty. however, towards the very end of the run Low pressure digs down deeper over the UK bringing the risk of very windy and wet conditions to all areas.

 

UKMO today also has High pressure down to the SW late next week with alternating spells of milder and cloudy weather with rain at times in the North with clearer and colder conditions with NW and occasional showers in the North and East. The SW could well escape with the least rain and temperatures remaining near to the average throughout.

 

GEM holds a candle out to those looking for cold this morning as it holds a similar pattern to the other output for a week's time with rain at times, chiefly in the North and drier conditions towards the South. Late in it's run though it drives deep Low pressure down over Europe encouraging High pressure to develop and ridge north out to the West of the UK with Greenland becoming very High pressure based. On this occasion it looks like Northerly winds and snow showers and frosty night could be just around the corner after day 10.

 

NAVGEM shows High pressure over or to the SW late next week with a mild WSW flow across the North while Southern areas see lighter winds and rather cloudy benign conditions in temperatures close to average. Rainfall would be reserved only for the far North at this juncture.

 

ECM today holds High pressure further out to the SW than some of the other output. This would have the effect of bringing the South into periods of rain and showers too at times with some short and rather colder periods with sunshine and showers, these chiefly in the North. Temperatures though fluctuating day to day would never stray too far from a mid November average.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very sine wave pattern today indicating fluctuating periods of milder then colder days without ever getting desperately cold or mild. troughs would accompany such fast changing events so rain at times is shown by most members though no great quantities are indicated for more Southern locations as High pressure lies close by to the South.

 

The Jet Stream flow shows signs of tilting more SW to NE over the weekend and start of next week as well as moving further North to the NW of Scotland in response to high pressure building near to the South of the UK. It later becomes impossible to predict as it looks to weaken with no clear cut trend to it's position beyond 10 days from now.

 

In Summary the status quo in our Autumn 2013 continues unabated. The trend for most of the active weather fronts shifting further to the North remains as High pressure builds close to the South or SW next week with day to day changes ranging between rather cold and rather mild weather over the period as frontal boundaries pass through. Frost and fog will remain a fairly rare commodity overall but patchy frost and fog is possible under the transient ridges. It seems the chances of a pattern change that was hinted at yesterday has evaporated for now although GEM does hold an olive branch for 'coldies' to cling on to this morning. 

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Summer Sun]

The next 8 days taking us to November 16th shows a lot of the UK remaining below average still, however south west Scotland, parts of western England, western Wales and the south west are shown to be average or above average, also turning milder is Sweden and Norway

 

 

Yesterdays 12z to compare

 

 

The biggest change to cooler weather is over France and into Switzerland 

[simshady]

Some models from Mr Hugo showing colder options....

 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/398737932095209472/photo/1

Edited November 8, 2013 by simshady

[MPG]

The next 8 days taking us to November 16th shows a lot of the UK remaining below average still, however south west Scotland, parts of western England, western Wales and the south west are shown to be average or above average, also turning milder is Sweden and Norway

 

 

Yesterdays 12z to compare

 

 

The biggest change to cooler weather is over France and into Switzerland 

But those charts just change with the model output?? Thats why everytime you post them they are different....reminds of the CFS those charts.

[Summer Sun]

But those charts just change with the model output?? Thats why everytime you post them they are different....reminds of the CFS those charts.

 

Yes there based on GFS

[phil nw.]

Good post by Chiono above setting out the background information to the medium term outlook and the later frames from NAEFs/ECM Ht Anomls.still show +ve around NW Atlantic/C.Maritimes.

Day 10 onwards-supporting the idea of a high in that region later.

 

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?12

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-312.png?12

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013110800/EDH101-240.GIF?08-12

 

with a trough dropping down just to our east.So an indication of a colder n/nw flow in week 2.

How cold depends on the amount of ridging, obviously the more the better, and of course getting any troughing favourably alined just to our east- so still the fine detail to see on this.

 

In the meantime the earlier outputs from the 00z runs show no real chnage to our westerly type other than the approach of the Azores High towards the south

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013110800/UN120-21.GIF?08-06

 

should help to give many of us a break from this incessant rain.

Edited November 8, 2013 by phil nw.

[Purga]

Solidly mild and zonal across the main models this morning right to the end of FI.

 

 

Wishes for cold weather remain as fanciful as ever sadly.

[Summer Sun]

After the recent cooler weather Monday sees a return to milder conditions for a lot of us

 

 

 

But by Tuesday temperatures drop again with a band of rain moving across the country

 

[shedhead]

Solidly mild and zonal across the main models this morning right to the end of FI.

 

 

Wishes for cold weather remain as fanciful as ever sadly.

Very much so, nowt new there then...

 

On a positive note the 06 GFS continues to frank the drying trend, with HP building quite nicely as early as next Thursday....roll on!

 

Edited November 8, 2013 by shedhead

[Polar Maritime]

John Hammond said expect some sharp frosts this weekend and more snow over the Scottish Mountains and even down to lower levels over Northern hills of the Pennines. A chilly day here with temps still below the seasonal average of which looks set to continue bar the far South.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[shedhead]

GFS suggesting we could see a good 5 or 6 days of much drier weather in the south from next Thursday, which I'm sure would be very welcome to many, but until ECM comes onboard I'll remain a little sceptical.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IF the GFS is correct though we could see quite a variation in temps during the period, even across relatively short distances, with chilly mid single digits maxes where mist/fog is slow to clear and a mild 12-14c where sunshine predominates. 

Edited November 8, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

I think we are firmly on track for a cold blast from the northwest or north just beyond mid month, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean and op run are trending towards a colder outbreak during that time, even before then we look like having brief colder incursions mixed with milder spells and occasional atlantic ridges bringing quieter interludes with sunshine by day and frosty nights, saturday night into sunday morning looks cold and frosty, sunday looks cold, crisp and sunny for many, then milder, wet and windy, it's an undulating unsettled pattern with no two days the same.

[bluearmy]

no solid guidance for week 2 and the trends continue from yesterday re a cold period around the 20th and beyond. those of you hanging on every operational fi will never appreciate this.