Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[shaky]

no solid guidance for week 2 and the trends continue from yesterday re a cold period around the 20th and beyond. those of you hanging on every operational fi will never appreciate this.

brilliant stuff blue army. Just goes to show even without a stratospheric warming we can still get cold and snow.long may the models carry on upgrading the end of november cold spell!!!

[sundog]

no solid guidance for week 2 and the trends continue from yesterday re a cold period around the 20th and beyond. those of you hanging on every operational fi will never appreciate this.

I reckon there is a decent chance of a cold period the last week of the month,thats my gut feeling anyway combined with the trends you speak of.

[Timmytour]

i think November looks to continue much the way it started...a continued rinse and repeat of the patterns.

No despair though. I rather think this is what November's should be like. I only hope it leads us forward into what I think a winter should be like

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run shows a widespread ground frost tomorrow night with an air frost further north and in rural areas further south, but then an atlantic ridge will bring a dry and sunny sunday but with thin high cloud invading from the southwest later in the day before the cloud lowers and thickens on sunday night, temperatures struggling to recover after the cold start on sunday, around 7 celsius for most areas. Then it's all change again with a depression sweeping in from the west bringing a spell of strong winds and rain but tropical maritime air flooding across the uk, especially when the main rain band has cleared through, the wetter east/se could remain at 9-10 c whereas the brighter north and west nearer 12-14 c, tuesday becomes cooler from the northwest but with a large area of fine weather with temps closer to average, early residual mild air gradually being pushed away from the southeast, coolest and windiest across the far northwest where frequent showers are likely, becoming cold enough for mountain snow in scotland later on tuesday. By midweek, high pressure builds in from the southwest across southern uk with increasingly fine weather but with a risk of overnight fog and a touch of frost, continuing unsettled across the north for an extra day before a ridge from the main anticyclone topples southeastwards across the north of the uk during thursday, the south and east fine again, the northwest corner of the uk becoming milder and windier with strengthening sw'ly winds and rain spreading in off the atlantic after a fine and pleasant interlude, the south & east fine again on friday but unsettled further northwest. The 6z then shows the high to the southeast being shunted away southeastwards by a more active atlantic with a return to unsettled and windy weather nationwide, occasional polar maritime incursions across the north and a generally disturbed pattern becoming entrenched again following the more benign spell in the southeast.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

brilliant stuff blue army. Just goes to show even without a stratospheric warming we can still get cold and snow.long may the models carry on upgrading the end of november cold spell!!!

 

hang on - theres a long way from cold in the third week of november and the S word !

[UV-RAY]

hang on - theres a long way from cold in the third week of november and the S word !

Lol, it's going to be a long winter by the looks of it.

[Frosty.]

Lol, it's going to be a long winter by the looks of it.

good, I like long winters, winter weather with lots of S words and toys/prams could extend through march into april again like last time.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean shows good support for anticyclonic weather in one form or another during the period spanning the T+168 hours timeframe, but then when we go forwards to T+240 and T+384 hours, there is good support for a colder and unsettled pattern, the 6z perturbations look very settled at day 7 with only a few exceptions, but the whole balance then changes by day 10 onwards to support cold outbreaks from the northwest or north with a risk of snow and frosts in the forecast during the second half of the month, on balance. Since this is also supported by the ecm 0z ensemble mean & op, I think it has a very good chance of verifying. 

Edited November 8, 2013 by Frosty.

[Purga]

brilliant stuff blue army. Just goes to show even without a stratospheric warming we can still get cold and snow.long may the models carry on upgrading the end of november cold spell!!!

Brilliant? The models aren't showing anything like cold and snow in the foreseeable future.

Blind optimism maybe.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean shows good support for anticyclonic weather in one form or another during the period spanning the T+168 hours timeframe, but then when we go forwards to T+240 and T+384 hours, there is good support for a colder and unsettled pattern, the 6z perturbations look very settled at day 7 with only a few exceptions, but the whole balance then changes by day 10 onwards to support cold outbreaks from the northwest or north with a risk of snow and frosts in the forecast during the second half of the month, on balance. Since this is also supported by the ecm 0z ensemble mean & op, I think it has a very good chance of verifying. 

I really think there is a good chance of wintry outbreaks during at least the last 10 days of november.

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm getting very confused in here there really is nothing exciting to hang On with cold outbreak if anything maybe settled down here in the south with possible frosts but snow only for the north.

And most of the harden weather watchers have repeatedly said this winter is simply going to be bog standard so 63 09/10 47 is not a likely outcome.

[UV-RAY]

I'm getting very confused in here there really is nothing exciting to hang On with cold outbreak if anything maybe settled down here in the south with possible frosts but snow only for the north.And most of the harden weather watchers have repeatedly said this winter is simply going to be bog standard so 63 09/10 47 is not a likely outcome.

Harden weather watchers, have they got crystal balls and a time machine?

[Polar Maritime]

Brilliant? The models aren't showing anything like cold and snow in the foreseeable future.Blind optimism maybe.

Maybe for the South yes.

[draztik]

The temperature anomaly for days 10-15, keep most of western Europe and a lot of the UK below average.

GFS Ens 6z (days 10-15)

[Frosty.]

It's far from blind optimism, there is what I consider to be good support for a cold and unsettled spell beyond mid month with a chance of snow in places and frosty nights, a few colder incursions before that and a short spell of fine weather later next week with a gradually more unsettled and increasingly amplified pattern with a mid atlantic ridge building north towards greenland and a trough pushing east to the north of the uk into scandinavia. : - )

[Captain Shortwave]

Maybe for the South yes.

No need to worry about cold and snow here, got thunderstorms today

Autumn is delivering more in the convective department than the whole of summer did 

[shaky]

It's far from blind optimism, there is what I consider to be good support for a cold and unsettled spell beyond mid month with a chance of snow in places and frosty nights, a few colder incursions before that and a short spell of fine weather later next week with a gradually more unsettled and increasingly amplified pattern with a mid atlantic ridge building north towards greenland and a trough pushing east to the north of the uk into scandinavia. : - )

thank you for backing me up mr frosty and also precisely my point aswell about the upcoming potential cold spell.

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS really is making the polar vortex crank through the gears here, ironically it works in our favour in pulling the wettest weather away from the UK

The concerning thing for me here is at this date a few days ago, there was a lot more amplification, seems to be a theme where the pattern flattens somewhat as the timeframe gets closer to verification. 

UKMO is very similar at t144 to the GFS

 

Bit more bite on the pm shot but that is about it.

My real issue is not one of continuing zonality, but one of we end up with extensive mid-latitude blocking instead of the desired high latitude block and colder weather developing.

Edited November 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

It's the gfs so you must expect anything from sublime to ridiculous and everything in between, however, I'm sure there will be lots of cold potential within the GEFS 12z perturbations and we must remember the timeframe of interest is still beyond T+240 hours.

[Panayiotis]

Hello Mr Mid Atlantic Ridge and Sausage High over Moscow...

Edited November 8, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

Hello Mr Mid Atlantic Ridge and Sausage High over Moscow...

 

By t360 the two link up

 

Edited November 8, 2013 by Summer Sun

[shedhead]

The 12 GFS continue to promote a decent pressure rise across the south in particular later next week, which thankfully is now in the semi reliable time frame. Prior to this we see conditions continuing to chop and change but temps never drift to far away from average, then later in FI the GFS again wants to toy with a significant pressure rise to our north......

 

 

What odds it will be gone again completely in 6 hours time tho....

[Panayiotis]

Beauty of run! The CFS was suggesting an easterly via Scandi high... (as it has done in the previous 4 runs!)

Note: These might change next run! Posted 4:47pm

Edited November 8, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

By t360 the two link up

 

 

And right at the end we get the high splitting with the vortex piling towards the Siberian sector and the UK section of the HP being forced NW. Interesting.

Edited November 8, 2013 by CreweCold

[Frosty.]

Hello Mr Mid Atlantic Ridge and Sausage High over Moscow...

I always had faith it would deliver in the end.