Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Frosty.]

The ingredients for a cold unsettled spell are all there, which is the main thing, at last there are perturbations showing cold and snowy outcomes from mid to late november..with a bit of luck we could get a nice surprise cold snap.

[TootyFruity]

I'm sure most of us would love a Steve Murr BOOM ... I know I would î•

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm sure most of us would love a Steve Murr BOOM ... I know I would î•

 

May not have to wait long. Word just in that Steve Murr is getting ready to view the latest output as we speak- this video just in

 

[Frosty.]

Hope dave is ok.

Thanks for showing the failed easterly from last dec Karl!

So do I, miss his top notch posts. come back teits ....sorry about showing that epic fail

[radiohead]

Hopefully some eye candy on the 12Z GFS or ECM, or at least a continuation of positive signs!

[Captain Shortwave]

Good effort from the GFS in high resolution, this is only going one way from there

Another cold shot at least

Edited November 9, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Met4Cast]

More amplification on the GFS 12z allowing colder air to flood Southwards

 

 

 

Toppler though, too much energy in the Northern arm of the jet

Edited November 9, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[Skullzrulerz]

The deal is sealed guys we should get a cool/cold spell.Coming soon

[Summer Sun]

Although GFS hints at something colder it don't last with high pressure and milder air swiftly coming back in

 

 

2 or 3 days of colder air before a return to normal

 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Summer Sun

[radiohead]

Yes, a brief cold snap on the 12Z GFS. Nothing eyepopping, but a long way off and changes will obviously come, one way or the other.

[Panayiotis]

A little adjustment on this chart and we could see something more special! Great and positive signs! We await the ECM and ensembles..

What I was thinking: 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Tom Jarvis]

what if the GFS is overdoing the low that causes the high to topple

[Captain Shortwave]

A little adjustment on this chart and we could see something more special! Great and positive signs! We await the ECM and ensembles..

What I was thinking: 

I think the high will probably topple, but more akin to the ECM op this morning with the high settling to our North east. Either way I'm a lot happier with the output, namely the zonlity we have recently experienced looks like coming to an end. Worst case scenario is mid latitude heights, best is some form of blocking high to our north. Position of course up for debate

Edited November 9, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowman.]

what if the GFS is overdoing the low that causes the high to topple

 

Exactly what I was thinking as the GFS does seem to have a habit of doing that.

[lesta_snow]

Exactly what I was thinking as the GFS does seem to have a habit of doing that.

i think it did that earlier this year when it kept reverting back to an atlantic dominated theme because that's its general setup but the atlantic took a while to take back over!

[cooling climate]

Unless there is more amplification from the Pacific side into the Arctic then the

GFS 12z is probably the best we are going to see for the time being.

Having said that of course the ECM 12z may come up with a much more amplified

pattern over the Arctic, we shall see.

[Summer Sun]

GEM is going for a north westerly

 

 

Bigger view of the norther hemisphere

 

[Panayiotis]

GEM is going for a north westerly

 

 

Bigger view of the norther hemisphere

 

You would probably find that low to the NE of UK sink down in to the North Sea with the high over the Atlantic ridging up further into Greenland giving us a northerly. Good end to the GEM too...

[radiohead]

I like the GFS control run at T240.

[bluearmy]

I like the GFS control run at T240.

I like the control run . Period!

[Panayiotis]

Hello Winter! We have been expecting you! Ensembles for my area...

[Tim Bland]

Hello Winter! We have been expecting you! Ensembles for my area...

Best ensemble set of the season! Here's to some colder, snowier OP runs...coming so a screen near you soon ðŸºâ›„ï¸â›„ï¸ðŸ˜œ

[Cheshire Freeze]

Huge shift in the ensembles now to something much colder.....the thing is, without operational support can we trust them?

[Barry12]

Huge shift in the ensembles now to something much colder.....the thing is, without operational support can we trust them?

 

The ECM supports them

[radiohead]

Yes, a number of very interesting ensemble members there + the control.