Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[radiohead]

An interesting end to high res.

 

 

And out into FI, dragging in some cold  air from the east.

 

 

Edited November 11, 2013 by radiohead

[Panayiotis]

Its a great run from the high res 12z GFS. Now with the high ridging over the north of the UK and into Scandi, I feel as this setup will then proceed the temporary mid Atlantic ridge as I this has been signalled countless times by the CFS:

Edited November 11, 2013 by Panayiotis

[nick sussex]

Overall the GFS 12hrs does show some potential in terms of some colder conditions into the UK.

 

It does rather flatten things out quickly in the lower resolution, I'm a bit dubious of its ping ponging with the PV which bounces from ne Canada back to Russia in lower resolution.

 

The best thing from a cold perspective is that phasing between shortwave and main trough, we still need to see this dig further south along the east coast of the USA to give the high a kick further north before it topples.

 

Not a bad run for coldies in terms of possibilities, it at least gives us something to talk about for a while!

[Matty M]

To me i can't see to much too get excited about, a few days ago there was some signs that the PV could get disrupted but the latest output appear to show very little height rises over Greenland and a very strong polar vortex which will inhibit an extensive cold outbreak to mid-latitudes. 

 

All we can expect from this is perhaps a weak transient northerly and then some mid-latitude blocking.

We need to see more amplification in the flow to try and disrupt this extremely intense PV

Edited November 11, 2013 by Matty M

[nick sussex]

To me i can't see to much to get excited about, a few days ago there was some signs that the PV could get disrupted but the latest appear to show very little height rises over Greenland and a very strong polar vortex which will inhibit an extensive cold outbreak to mid-latitudes. 

 

All we can expect from this is perhaps a week transient northerly and then some mid-latitude blocking.

We need to see more amplification in the flow to try and disrupt this extremely intense PV

 

I think you're a little too worried re the PV, we don't mind an angry looking blob as long as its either held to the west/nw of Greenland or further north, theres been many a decent easterly with a horrid looking PV, the main thing is that it doesn't set up in its normal south Greenland location.

[Tom Jarvis]

I would rather take the ukmo than the gffs at 144H as it is allot less messy and the pv isn't as powerfull

[Gaz1985]

Snow risk for near to here is now reduced from 20% yesterday to 10% today 

 

Edited November 11, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Tom Jarvis]

Snow risk for near to here is now reduced from 20% yesterday to 10% today 

 

that is the 6Z run not the 12Z

[Gaz1985]

that is the 6Z run not the 12Z

 

It won't be dramatically different I don't think.

[Fozfoster]

I think some are analysing each run to much..........trend is our friend

PS i am guilty of it too :-(

Edited November 11, 2013 by Fozfoster

[radiohead]

12Z GEM

 

4

Edited November 11, 2013 by radiohead

[garbagebags]

I think some are analysing each run to much..........trend is our friend

 

The trend is good. Mid Atlantic ridging. 

[Matty M]

12Z GEM

 

4

And it lives up to its name

[Tom Jarvis]

And it lives up to its name

look at the uppers they are not actually that cold all we would get is cold rain

[Panayiotis]

12Z GEM

 

4

Just about to post this, it indeed looks good. I Two weeks weeks ago I suggested the chance of a colder second half to Nov, but in the last few days my confidence in this prediction has grown!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78310-winter-2013-2014-discussion-part-2/?view=findpost&p=2822177

[UV-RAY]

And it lives up to its name

It's the same model that latched onto the storm last month, of course that doesn't mean it's going to be right twice but from this sort of timescale it's as good a chance as any other model.

look at the uppers they are not actually that cold all we would get is cold rain

Lol, you would but for those further North and with a bit of altitude a wintry mix.

Edited November 11, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[nick sussex]

I would rather take the ukmo than the gffs at 144H as it is allot less messy and the pv isn't as powerfull

There are huge differences between it and the GFS in terms of that low in Arctic Canada. This will have a knock on effect in terms of the development of that amplifying wave working through the USA and Canada, no AW and the pattern will flatten out too much downstream.

[garbagebags]

look at the uppers they are not actually that cold all we would get is cold rain

 

Pah, you might get cold rain. Im getting bags o snow! 

[Weathizard]

Don't understand why people get so obsessed with snow in November, it's EXCEPTIONALLY rare to get extended very cold/cold weather in November. People expect too much forgetting that November is a AUTUMN month, just because a few years ago we had a very cold end to November does not mean the same will happen every other year.

Looking at the models for the first time in a while as I've been exceptionally busy, but the building blocks look pretty good for winter to me. Looking at the GFS & ECM it looks as though the PV is being disrupted and doesn't look like it's setting up shop in southern Greenland which can only be a food thing long term, also with the NAO turning negative around the 2/3 of this month things look good for a nice chilly December(you know, the first month of winter) until then there's looks to be a few tasters at the cold within a decent timeframe. Normal November weather really, PM short lived bursts for the North with Drier more mild weather in the south, just ordinary late autumn really. Cheer up chumps!

Edited November 11, 2013 by Weathizard

[bluearmy]

Pah, you might get cold rain. Im getting bags o snow! 

 

early afternoon temps around 2c in the south of the uk day 10 gem 12z.  we are talking 21st november !

 

the period post the mid atlantic ridge now looking fascinating with no clear signal at the moment.

[garbagebags]

Don't understand why people get so obsessed with snow in November, it's EXCEPTIONALLY rare to get extended very cold/cold weather in November. People expect too much forgetting that November is a AUTUMN month, just because a few years ago we had a very cold end to November does not mean the same will happen every other year.

Looking at the models for the first time in a while as I've been exceptionally busy, but the building blocks look pretty good for winter to me. Looking at the GFS & ECM it looks as though the PV is being disrupted and doesn't look like it's setting up shop in southern Greenland which can only be a food thing long term, also with the NAO turning negative around the 2/3 of this month things look good for a nice chilly December(you know, the first month of winter) until then there's looks to be a few tasters at the cold within a decent timeframe. Normal November weather really, PM short lived bursts for the North with Drier more mild weather in the south, just ordinary late autumn really. Cheer up chumps!

 

We aren't obsessed with snow in November. We are obsessed with snow! Nobody cares what month it is except you. Who cares how rare it is? We are watching the models and excited because they are showing encouraging signs. It would be the same if we lived in Dubai and it was July. It doesn't matter what month it is one jot.

[Snowman.]

!!!

[SMU]

This! Someone posted the verification chart last night, there really is very little between the 4. It tends to be the "best" one is whatever is showing the coldest/snowiest option

 

No.

 

The 06z is the worst run of the day in specific areas of the NH - the model statistics page used to have a regional page by cycle of the GFS- covering regions like Europe, Atlantic, Pole, etc etc. the 06z & the 18z were clearly a LONG LONG way behind the rest.

 

Ive posted examples year in year out since 2008 - yet people don't want to listen.

 

IGNORE THE 06z & 18z.

 

Also the GFS has a 'model bias'- (im sure its not deliberate) but however the case whether it being programmed towards a more 'typical weather pattern for the UK or its just plain useless at 'seeing' blocking - its generally at best behind the euros.

 

The 12z GFS has an eastward bias for jet energy- the 06z & 18z just cannot resolve 'trough disruption'- so tend to wade low pressures through high pressures rather than underneath them.

The only real run I look at is the 00z.

 

As for the progged cold, as said look towards the 19th/20th & 21st to see some wintry potential for the UK-

 

I think the GEM solution is extreme but not out of the equation as the height anomaly shown teleconnects to the height anomaly over the pole at the same time....

 

 

S

[mpkio2]

!!!

Was just about to post this just for laughs and giggles. Beast from the East, anyone? All for fun as usual, but still good to see the CFS is still calling the same hym for the past two weeks now!

[Mair Snaw]

!!!

Very Very nice.....if only it verified like this...