Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Iceaxecrampon]

Been watching a colder set up on or around the 20th for a few days now

 

 

 

But the 24th is plainly ridiculous!

 

 

.....or is it?

 

Ian

 

 

[cooling climate]

Some of the GFS 06z ens members were showing a much more amplified

pattern in the extended and FI range and now we see the GFS 12z

operational run do the same.

This is quite plausable I think given the rise in heat flux and E-P

flux we are seeing around 45n-75n from the ridging in the pacific.

The heat flux can be viewed from this site.

For some reason it will not let me save image that I wanted to show.

http://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh

Use different parameters in bars below image and then press submit.

Edited November 10, 2013 by cooling climate

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the GFS ens want to really develop that low at day 5/6

One of the members is insane, 910mb 

Good thing it's existing away from civilisation 

UKMO going a different direction though

Weaker and dropping the trough into Scandinavia

Edited November 10, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[radiohead]

Well the GFS ens want to really develop that low at day 5/6

One of the members is insane, 910mb 

 

That would probably be sub-900mb in reality. Look at those isobars. Don't think that'll happen!

[garbagebags]

I think the key timeframe to be watching now is 165 to 192. Thats where we are seeing some decent cold forming in the reasonable time frame. I've never had any interest in FI to be honest. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Well the GFS ens want to really develop that low at day 5/6

One of the members is insane, 910mb 

Good thing it's existing away from civilisation 

That is one baaaaad low! Looks like the GFS and its ensembles are clearly having one of those 'see who can produce the deepest Low' contest.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well the GFS ens want to really develop that low at day 5/6

One of the members is insane, 910mb

Good thing it's existing away from civilisation

UKMO going a different direction though

Weaker and dropping the trough into Scandinavia

That's two of the main models ditching the cold spell ideas and one left to go don't be surprise. To see a return to zonal Atlantice flow.

Pv getting going now.

[Barry12]

Modelrollercoaster, the GFS continued the cold spell and the UKMO only goes to t144?

[garbagebags]

That's two of the main models ditching the cold spell ideas and one left to go don't be surprise. To see a return to zonal Atlantice flow.Pv getting going now.

 

Think your looking at the wrong time spell?? Look at Sunday - wednesday. Thats where a cold spell is showing. 

[legritter]

Wow GFS is in its winter warm up mode .certainly plenty of action in far out runs and do you see POPEYE the sailor man in Northern Hemisphere H500 chart at 384 Hrs ,to nights other runs will soon be out could be interesting .And the list of users getting bigger by the hour ,all good stuff ,catch up later .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well the GFS ens want to really develop that low at day 5/6

One of the members is insane, 910mb 

Good thing it's existing away from civilisation 

UKMO going a different direction though

Weaker and dropping the trough into Scandinavia

 

Top chart, snow hurricane north of norway , wouldnt mind that! as I normally hate deep lowz

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op run brings winter early this year, nice reloads of very cold arctic air for the time of year and a risk of snow across most of the uk at some point, I would BANK this run but I think the eventual outcome will be even better than this, following the warmer than average autumn we have had so far, this would be a great way to end it with a very amplified pattern. 

[Snowman.]

CFS is very interesting something I would consider a possibility.

 

 

 

 

 

FEBS A STONKER!

 

 

[TootyFruity]

Frosty in your opinion which is the most accurate GFS run is it the 0z or the 12z ?

[Summer Sun]

ECM showing a mild spell before we get to anything colder

 

 

t144 see's Scotland becoming cooler else where it remains mild

 

[Barry12]

t168 sees the cold air flooding into Scotland

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2013 by Barry95

[swfc]

hmmm ridging in the atlantic not looking as strong on the ecm at 168 hrs and looks atm a bit flat and to far west.interesting times indeed on the mo tho!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2oPJj3C-4Y#t=587

 

Latest CFS would be mental!! Heres the latest from Gav.

[Frosty.]

Frosty in your opinion which is the most accurate GFS run is it the 0z or the 12z ?

I think it's the 12z : -)

[Jonan92]

The main reason of the change in ECM's run I think it is a little low west of the HP

 

 

 

[TootyFruity]

I think it's the 12z : -)

Why is that ? Is it because it gathers more data as it goes from run to run ?

[Cloud 10]

I think it's the 12z : -)

 

The statistics back that up. 

 

[Barry12]

Awful ECM run, never gets that cold throughout it's run.

[dec10snow]

t168 sees the cold air flooding into Scotland

 

 

 

Check your private messages Barry!

[swfc]

With any change in theNAO "if it does go negative" the ecm would if its correct seem to be just to far westward in its position.The current 850s we have now are actually lower than the 240hrs on the ecm which is a downgrade.Still only one run and the nh charts do still look interesting to say the least!

Edited November 10, 2013 by swfc