South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13

[Captain Shortwave]

 

gfs update just in

 

 

gfs update just in

 

 

 

 

was blank before if anyone wonders why i showed it

 

I think the GFS ens took offence to Steve Murr's post earlier and have gone on strike 

[john pike]

hi jules

 

not sure and is making my fax updates a tad tricky as well

 

maybe gfs 18z took all the models out friday night

[shotski]

Just found myself scraping all the tasty faty bits from the bottom of the roasting tin after a lovely

roast chicken, does this mean we're in for a cold winter   

[fluid dynamic]

If I can make a genuine snowball next week, i'll... I'll, erm...

 

 

I'll do something!

 

If I can make a genuine snowball next week, I'll errr.... celebrate like Alan Partridge did ...

[Jo S]

I love this time of year with all the speculation of the weather,will it, or wont it, the uppers and the downers, so exciting, oh and all of the despair when snow doesn't arrive or the excitement when it does. Time to watch out for it all yayyy

[gottolovethisweather]

Trying again, as that previous post was a complete rooster up.

 

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http://forum.netweat...1113/?p=2832981

 

Four days hence and still things haven't really changed regarding the snow prospects, i.e. no overall consensus.

 

Odd how things don't change much once we shut down the Atlantic. Certainly looking forward to the potential over the coming days and weeks, whatever the weather. It's certainly going to be on the colder side of Average for the rest of November I reckon.

 

In fact, whilst referring to the far North of the UK initially, I did mention the following within the Snow and Ice thread on the 11th November.

 

 

I feel that even a Northwesterly flow would be distinctly chilly at this rate given the increase in ice around Greenland and Iceland, small wonder the Geese have moved on.

 

 

Well the first proper wintriness of the season is arriving initially from the Northwest, whether it will make it's presence known in this region is down to local Dewpoints, wet bulb Temps, upper level Temps and the like. We shall know for sure in less than 48 to 72 hours.

Edited November 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer of 76]

Trying again, as that previous post was a complete rooster up.

Want to try the swear filter out and try what your said, did you say a cock up

[john pike]

ecm 72

 

 

96

 

 

 

uppers

 

 

 

uppers are borderline there

 

however 500 uppers

 

 

overnight with lower temps and heavier precipitation

 

ukmo at 72

 

 

 

to me it looks a rain to sleet/snow overnight wednesday then probably back to rain on thursday

 

still need more runs with this though

 

with these charts if you can make a snowball i will eat my computer

 

that still may change though

hi got to

 

stop using fowl language

[Summer of 76]

John, looks like no rush to get the Snow Depth spreadsheet working for Tom unless we have an overnight competition/

[john pike]

hi chris

 

i suppose we could do count the snowflakes instead

 

although keep watching the models as they still are likely to flip around

[Jo S]

hi chris

 

i suppose we could do count the snowflakes instead

 

although keep watching the models as they still are likely to flip around

That's a good idea, as I can only count up to 5

[gottolovethisweather]

Want to try the swear filter out and try what your said, did you say a cock up

 

I said rooster deliberately Chris, but instead it lets you mention the word cock. So perhaps I could have used it anyway. I do try to abide by the rules and if it then lets others abuse the rules, what can I do.  Sexy models for coldies like me, even if nothing too extreme just yet, the potential (overused word I know) but it is truly there. You all watch your Air Temperatures next week and hopefully one or two might be watching their lampposts as well.

[Summer of 76]

hi chris

 

i suppose we could do count the snowflakes instead

 

although keep watching the models as they still are likely to flip around

Now there's a great idea and evidence would have to be a flash photo out of the window with the regulation lamppost.

 

I have been to Whipsnade Zoo today and up there on the downs it was really misty to almost fog until mid afternoon with everything dripping wet, even the animals stayed inside .

 

Yes agree these set ups can change very quickly.

[john pike]

 

thats better

[gottolovethisweather]

 

thats better

 

Yes, very sexy model output, they just get better.

[Sussex Jules]

Yea John only 192 hours out what can go wrong?! . You could start charging for your fax updates this week

[john pike]

 

 

hi jules

 

i could do a premium rate fax line

 

and read it out in a sexy voice

[Snowangel-MK]

Yes, very sexy model output, they just get better.

Never mind the models Tony, how are those Baboons?

[Jax]

 

 

 

 

and read it out in a sexy voice

to the music of WET WET WET

[john pike]

[shotski]

OMG not going to go in the MOD thread tonight after THAT ECM 12z run, just remember its only one run (at the moment) 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Yea John only 192 hours out what can go wrong?! . You could start charging for your fax updates this week

 

The previous 191 hours that's what. Not a lot will change in relation to the depth of initial cold, as the Atlantic is as dead as a dodo for now. What I think may happen, is gradual changes in the flow initially from the NW then N, NE and maybe to the E by day four, never Southwesterlies though. I am especially pleased about the latter.  I'm favouring a drier HP dominated scenario beyond the next five days but even then, that's purely speculation.

Never mind the models Tony, how are those Baboons?

image.jpg

 

Still monkeying around.

Edited November 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[shotski]

 

thats better

 

Better !!!!! Thats 2010 like John   

[Summer of 76]

I said rooster deliberately Chris, but instead it lets you mention the word cock. So perhaps I could have used it anyway. I do try to abide by the rules and if it then lets others abuse the rules, what can I do.  Sexy models for coldies like me, even if nothing too extreme just yet, the potential (overused word I know) but it is truly there. You all watch your Air Temperatures next week and hopefully one or two might be watching their lampposts as well.

I am so ashamed now, too much time at the zoo and that was the first animal to come to mind from the animal farm section.

 

I do like the idea of sexy models however the wife doesn't understand that I am on a weather forum and now I have mentioned the MK Christmas meet up next week she is getting worried.

[john pike]

i actually think we will see gfs flip tomorrow

 

when you see it have issues on gefs it normally means they are having problems

 

only something i have seen happen rarely in the past but i have seen this before

 

the current ecm run is one run so take with a pinch of salt

 

however this run today does not surprise me

 

still stick with after 144 being fi and keeping the fax runs as more reliable

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

 

still stuck at 48 so no ramps tonight

 

although ecm has done it for me

 

solar output at present

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

 

gone quiet for now

Edited November 17, 2013 by john pike