South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13

[Coast]

Morning all. It is grey and grim here too.  

 

Morning CM, morning all.

 

Blimey what a contrast to yesterdays lovely weather, grim and grotty here. Beautiful sunshine on Saturday and some very nice high level Cirrus, maybe Cirrostratus and you could almost see the crystals like heaped icing sugar:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19207-16th-november-c/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19205-16th-november-a/

 

The chances of snow next week seem to have receded further, maybe something there later in the week?

 

 

Still, there's a long way to go and we haven't really got going for a formal Winter yet!

[Lauren]

Apart from 2009 - 2010 the Medway snowshield has held strong. By my completely random logic it's got to have a rest at some point.

[Jayces]

I see the usual model mayhem has started in the model thread with hints of cold appearing a few days ago and since then disappearing, reappearing,downgrading, upgrading and then downgrading again causing all the usual stress we see in there every Winter. Some are writing off the whole Winter before it's even started!

 

Think at this point for us next week we can guarantee it's going to be colder and wet this coming week but that's about it, we won't know if we are going to get any falling snow until Tuesday tbh.

[Coast]

Here's what the Met Office had to say about those headlines last week:

 

Once again it is the season for speculation and big headlines regarding what the weather will do over the winter period. The front page of the Daily Express (Saturday 12th October) claims: ‘Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November’. We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.

 

What the Daily Express has failed to explain to it’s readers is that there is absolutely no certainty about what weather the UK will see over the winter period. The science simply does not exist to make detailed, long-term forecasts for temperature and snowfall even for the end of November, let alone for the winter period, which does not officially start until 1 December. While we have seen a return to more normal, cooler temperatures for this time of year, this is no indication of what we can expect over the next four months with regards to temperatures and when we might see snow. It is far too early to tell.

 

Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and it is perfectly possible that we will see the whole range of weather that we get in winter at some point over the coming months, including snow and freezing temperatures, but also heavy rain, windy weather and mild conditions too Our five day forecasts and warnings will provide you with the best possible guidance on any periods of cold weather, frost or the likelihood of snow, giving detailed local information across the UK to help you make the most of the weather over the coming months.

 

http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2013-10-13/the-met-office-responds-to-headlines-warning-of-worst-winter-in-decades/

 

 

 

[Coast]

and this should please Yamkin!

 

 

 

Winter resilience remains a priority for councils up and down the country with the memory of 2009/10 still fresh in the minds of many. The last two years have seen town halls cope well with harsh winter conditions but there certainly will be no complacency within council highways teams.

 

Preliminary findings from the LGA's annual Winter Readiness Survey show that 95% of councils are maintaining or increasing salt stock levels this winter and set to improve on the 1.3 million tonnes stockpiled in council depots in 2012.

 

Councils will be working around the clock to keep roads clear but keeping the country moving will always be a community effort. Thousands of extra grit bins have been installed and filled for people living in side streets and thousands of snow volunteers recruited to help grit hard-to-reach areas.

 

But, while residents can be reassured that their council is ready for winter, the question of what condition the roads will be left in after the snow has been cleared can't be answered with any certainty.

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/local-government-network/2013/nov/16/councils-winter-weather-preparations-snow

Edited November 17, 2013 by Coast

[Sussex Jules]

Morning Coast, morning all. I read that article in The Guardian and for me the most interesting part was the last sentence. There are still potholes from last year I dread to think what they will be like after this winter.

[alexisj9]

 

Here's what the Met Office had to say about those headlines last week:

 

 

http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2013-10-13/the-met-office-responds-to-headlines-warning-of-worst-winter-in-decades/

 

 

 

Unfortunately though, more people see the big headlines then this more useful info.

[fluid dynamic]

express  might be right!!!  something to wake  you up  to get those snow shovels ready!!!

 

 

 

Its good - just like the outline of snow in the Arctic, having pointed out that I think its an 'April Fool's' style gag for the model watchers/commentators, got my post deleted - what a rebel I am  

Edited November 17, 2013 by fluid dynamic

[HammerJack]

Morning all. A cloudy but milder start to the day here. Think I will stay out of the model thread for the time being, and just wait to see what surprises if any crop up over the next few weeks. Good day all...

[fluid dynamic]

 

Here's what the Met Office had to say about those headlines last week:

 

 

http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2013-10-13/the-met-office-responds-to-headlines-warning-of-worst-winter-in-decades/

 

 

Quote

 

Once again it is the season for speculation and big headlines regarding what the weather will do over the winter period. The front page of the Daily Express (Saturday 12th October) claims: ‘Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November’. We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.

 

What the Daily Express has failed to explain to it’s readers is that there is absolutely no certainty about what weather the UK will see over the winter period. The science simply does not exist to make detailed, long-term forecasts for temperature and snowfall even for the end of November, let alone for the winter period, which does not officially start until 1 December. While we have seen a return to more normal, cooler temperatures for this time of year, this is no indication of what we can expect over the next four months with regards to temperatures and when we might see snow. It is far too early to tell.

 

Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and it is perfectly possible that we will see the whole range of weather that we get in winter at some point over the coming months, including snow and freezing temperatures, but also heavy rain, windy weather and mild conditions too Our five day forecasts and warnings will provide you with the best possible guidance on any periods of cold weather, frost or the likelihood of snow, giving detailed local information across the UK to help you make the most of the weather over the coming months.

 

 

 

The problem  I have with the Met O with their somewhat high and mighty approach is that there are plenty of long range forecasters out there with their varying methods, (we liked GP didnt we ?) some as yet not understood by many, and they think they are entitled to rubbish them. With hindsight, MetO has produced plenty of rubbish over the years, at significant cost to us taxpayers. They do a good job overall and I think their work is getting better, credit to them, but guys, get over your selves. Quote " it is perfectly possible that we will see the whole range of weather that we get in winter at some point over the coming months, including snow and freezing temperatures, but also heavy rain, windy weather and mild conditions too", well done guys, but just because you dont understand some other (possibly) amateur forecaster's methods doesnt mean you can berate them.

 

The tabloid journalism, on the other hand, is sensationalist, poor and getting poorer, but I dont buy it. I dont mind who does though, thats their business not mine.

 

(rant mode off)

Edited November 17, 2013 by fluid dynamic

[Jax]

Morning all

 

A dank, dismal, dull, dark (how many d words can I get in here?), dreary, damp morning here, which might explain why I was late out from under the duvet and not been out yet.

 

Not sure what today holds for me yet, may wander to the next village later, but then again may stop in and continue some of the artwork ideas and testing/practicing new stuff I have been doing, who knows.

 

Do however have some home chores to do and need to get the rubbish bins out for the morning, excitement grows as we have to wait and see if the bin police reject my recycling again (so more ends up in the black bin like last time then).

[SteveCoops]

Well the Met Office did publicly admit they have been poor over the last couple years and so I reckon they're trying to improve. They can pretty much guarantee their data will be bought whatever their quality of forecasting, can't they? (e.g. BBC, although didn't they threaten to stop using the Met Office?) Whereas other forecasters need to prove their worth to get their information sold. Well, not entirely true I suppose as the Express obviously buys the forecasts from cloud cuckoo land (but that's more for sensationalism as opposed to accuracy).

 

Do any of the other model providers (e.g. GFS) also interpret the output to create an actual layman's forecast, or is that down to the subscriber of the model output?

 

Also, what's this new replacement for GFS model looking like? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow-following,_finite-volume_Icosahedral_Model

[RUSH]

morningggggggg alllllllllll

 

 

 

well thats a flip of the coin from yesterdays niceness ,damp cold wet.lovely still going out tho,take care ever 1 its sunday 

[Jax]

morningggggggg alllllllllll

 

 

 

well thats a flip of the coin from yesterdays niceness ,damp cold wet.lovely still going out tho,take care ever 1 its sunday 

nah, we had this yesterday as well, only difference is it's damper this morning.

 

Just been in the MAD thread, and quickly came back out again!

[Jax]

Also, what's this new replacement for GFS model looking like? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow-following,_finite-volume_Icosahedral_Model

looking very experimental at this stage.

[SteveCoops]

looking very experimental at this stage.

Does it produce any outputs we can see anywhere?

[Jax]

Does it produce any outputs we can see anywhere?

Yes it does, following link shows charts for midnight just gone

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim_jet:&runtime=2013111700&plot_type=allfields&fcst=000&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=europe&adtfn=0&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0

 

 

and this one for midday today

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim_jet:&runtime=2013111700&plot_type=allfields&fcst=012&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=europe&adtfn=0&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0

[RUSH]

nah, we had this yesterday as well, only difference is it's damper this morning.

 

Just been in the MAD thread, and quickly came back out again!

morning mate 

 

yesterday was nice sun shine,got to take the bad with the good(lolol),i dont go near the mad thread any more its scary (lol).i like my mental health 

[Jax]

morning mate 

 

yesterday was nice sun shine,got to take the bad with the good(lolol),i dont go near the mad thread any more its scary (lol).i like my mental health 

indeed, anything like our weather means prediction is something you take with a large dollop of salt unless the trend is nailed on.

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS 6z mean looking better for the South East than 0z mean at 114 hrs, nothing special but keeps that keen Easterly wind for longer for Kent.

[stainesbloke]

What a difference a day makes, very gloomy today but actually warmer than yesterday at 10C.

[Jax]

Well the mist and murk maintains it's presence here, guess that is all today will hold, still not been out, taking stock of chores I need to get done anyway, once again I am hanging the washing from any space I can find around the house to try and get it dry.

 

9.2oC outside according the the temp thingy in the shed.

What a difference a day makes, very gloomy today but actually warmer than yesterday at 10C.

make the most of it, looks like we will not see double digit temps into next week day or night.

[Jo S]

Well its dull and grey out there, but quite mild, I remember when I was younger ,when I used to go and watch fireworks, we used to wrapped up, as it was freezing, gloves ,hats. 3 pairs of trousers, this cold weather that is coming , it what it used to be like every winter even huge icicles.Just my thoughts. Oh and Im looking forward to the snow cup again this year,

[Captain Shortwave]

Another day of thick cloud, ironically the only time it's been clear for the past 2 days has been overnight... standard.

[Timbo]

Despite what they are all saying over on the MOD thread, toys out of prams, winter is over ect..

East Anglia could see some surprise snowfall on Wednesday