South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=18&mode=1&carte=0

 

i will have run 18 please

[2810lollypop]

I've just checked on the the weather outlook ( two weather) & it has snow forecast for me on the 23 rd & 24 th ! November ! Hmmmm I wonder ? Would be lovely if it happens . Happy Saturday everyone !

[Great Plum]

Morning all,

Hope to be posting a bit more now as autumn turns into winter...

I haven't looked at the 0z charts but just taken a look at the met office weather app which suggests a top temp of 4c on Wednesday and sleet! Not bad for mid November!

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all, hope everyone is well, and any hang overs are not to bad, beautiful morning and sunrise today with some lovely orange fluffy clouds just maurandering around the sky, slight frost and calm winds. Could it be better?

To be truthful it probably could, got food shopping, then unbelievably early I am told we are wrapping the grand kids Christmas presents and writing the cards out. I know she indoors works in a card shop and bloody Christmas carols have been brain washing her since June, but really this is pushing me over the top. Don't she know rugby is on! Wish I was brave enough to tell her, rather than you lot, but I not, and anyway she dosen't read this so I should be safe, hate these international breaks in the football season, she always takes advantage. Bah humbug.

An update, featuring a bit of good news, the present wrapping has been delayed due to a blabbering old fool begging to be allowed to watch the rugby with his son this afternoon, but sadly its only been delayed until tomorrow morning, but hey oh its give me 24 hours to come up with another excuse. Off food shopping now, wish me luck.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Charltonkerry

[That ECM]

Morning all,Hope to be posting a bit more now as autumn turns into winter... :)I haven't looked at the 0z charts but just taken a look at the met office weather app which suggests a top temp of 4c on Wednesday and sleet! Not bad for mid November!

The morning output from ECM will be of interest to you guys t216 and t240 would creat fun and games.

[Great Plum]

I will have a look! Currently -0.4c here in Reigate...

[Summer of 76]

It has warmed up a little over night due to the cloud moving down from the north, however I don't think it's going to be that warm today and as GP says we are down for 4c on Tuesday and there is also mention of wintry showers

[chilly milly]

Morning all. We are at a steady 5.1c here this morning. Waiting for the first night when we go below zero.

 

CharltonKerry your posts always make me laugh, but I agree entirely about the rugby...priorities.

 

Hope you have fun shopping and everyone else, have a good day.

[Charltonkerry]

Morning all. We are at a steady 5.1c here this morning. Waiting for the first night when we go below zero. CharltonKerry your posts always make me laugh, but I agree entirely about the rugby...priorities.  Hope you have fun shopping and everyone else, have a good day.

Thanks, that what I try to achieve, there's to much moaning, groaning and sadness in this world, I just try to lighten the morning slightly, sometimes it don't work, but no harm trying? Her indoors ain't that bad, I just hope no one think it all true, but always as today there is more than an element of truth involved, I just exaggerate some points. Off shopping, and yes tomorrow I am wrapping presents for the grand kids.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Freeeeezing!!!!!! 

 

First Ice of the season too 

 

thickest I have ever pulled out the water butt was 2" time to beat that this year 

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

Just saying...

[stainesbloke]

Nice start to the day here, chilly at 2C with a slight frost Hopefully the sunshine will hang on for most of the day. Have a great day peeps!

[Mesoscale]

Freeeeezing!!!!!! 

 

First Ice of the season too 

 

thickest I have ever pulled out the water butt was 2" time to beat that this year 

 

ice ice baby.jpg

We have ice in our water plant pots this morning also, I have an image somwhere from 2010/2011 either in December or feb where the ice was over 2inches thick, earlier this year the whole pond (10x9m) completly froze over almost enough to walk on, my brother in law tried and fell through it lol. Don't know how thick it was but definatley was a couple of inches thick.

Pretty cold this morning the bins in the garden have a coating of ice, I don't know if anybody else gets this but I just went out into my garden for a few minutes and ended up having a sneezing fit! I think it was from the cold air. Can't get my local temperature at the moment as Wunderground is down for the moment.

Edit: Wunderground is back and my local station (just up the road from me) is reporting -0.5 Â°C! Love it!

Edited November 16, 2013 by Mesoscale

[Reefseeker]

I don't know if anybody else gets this but I just went out into my garden for a few minutes and ended up having a sneezing fit! I think it was from the cold air. 

 

I am having a sneezing fit most mornings at the moment, hadn't thought it was the cold air from when I let the dog out first thing. Not usually up this early on a Saturday but had to sleep at 8 last night after a 9 hour teaching session for my MBA students - problem with CFS, which I suffer from, is something like that leads to a massive crash straight after and a few days recovery. We're off to Sandbanks later for some R&R. 

 

Lovely looking morning out there, clear blue skies and sunshine with a slight frost on the grass, which is starting to look a bit long again... hmmm, not sure hubby will be that pleased to do a 'final final' mow of the lawn, but those who were saying short grass adds to the snow inches may be on to something when the Snow Cup comes around again. And having said the S word and seen Surrey's post, I'm trying REALLY hard not to get excited for next week's prospects 

 

Have a lovely day everyone.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Reefseeker

[Mike Storm]

Morning all and happy Saturday currently 3.5c here from a min of 1.1c at 333am very bright and sunny! I do like that snow blob on surrey's chart lol

[Tom Quintavalle]

Some frost on the shed roof this morning, nice to see!

 

Thought I'd post this video from Matt Taylor, explaining the difficulties of forecasting snow. 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24954812

 

Obviously basic stuff for us weather geeks but got me thinking about some of the rain to snow events, in our region, from years past.

 

Here's two I remember vividly. Firstly 8th Dec.1981, living in an Inner London borough at the time and heavy rain set in around about the morning rush-hour and eventually turned to snow, to give a couple of inches by late morning. As we all know the weather then stayed mostly very cold down here, right up until Xmas day, although no snow fell on the big day, around 3 inches or so remained on the ground, in the Bromley area, which melted a few days later.

 

 

Now Mon. 21st Dec 2009, rain started falling in Croydon around mid-afternoon but reports soon started coming in of a transition to snow from higher parts of the area, over the North Downs, (especially from Yamkin, in the Shirley Hills)

Snow started falling in Croydon town centre, just before the early evening rush-hour began and traffic chaos ensued. Took me over 4 hours to travel the 10 miles or so to SE12. I'm sure many of you had similar nightmare journeys that evening.

Here the archive chart from midnight, a few hours after the snow had stopped, showing how marginal that event was, with colder air digging back down from the NW over parts of the region, enough to cause snow to reach ground level.

 

 

I find rain to snow events can be more fun than all snow events, as they are obviously that much harder to forecast and what with the surprise element, seeing a wet dreary landscape turn white, when you least expect it, adds even more excitement to our geeky fetish with the white stuff.

 

Tom.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[Coast]

Freeeeezing!!!!!! 

 

Morning Surrey, morning all.

 

Chilly but not freezing here on the coast with no perceptible frost overnight. A lovely clear and sunny start to a busy day and expectations high for a turn around the corner into Winter weather next week.

 

I'm still very undecided about any white stuff falling from the sky next week, if it does I expect a light dusting to the North of our region at best, although the overnight GFS threw these wobbly ones up:

 

 

 

I don't think you'll need to throw a spade into the car as an emergency measure on Tuesday, but you might want to take your camera, just in case

[Sussex Jules]

Morning Coast morning all. You should come inland a bit Coast frost on the cars lowest temp was about 6am at 0.9.

Feel a bit better today if anyone gets this 'orrible cold I suggest dosing yourself up with Bushmills honey tried the old fashioned method of gold old Beechams but wasn't working. Generous glass of Bushmills last night and I slept like a baby. All aboard the model roller coaster again today. I still think Tuesday/Wednesday we may see a few flakes. Whatever happens I'm sure in here we won't be throwing our toys out of the prams or resorting to sniping comments unlike other threads I could mention.

[Great Plum]

Today is my church's Christmas fair (St Matthew's, Station Road, Redhill between 10.30 and 2.30 today - I'm manning the toy stall) and it's so nice to see something seasonal and bright instead of drizzle!

[stainesbloke]

Some frost on the shed roof this morning, nice to see!

Thought I'd post this video from Matt Taylor, explaining the difficulties of forecasting snow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24954812

Obviously basic stuff for us weather geeks but got me thinking about some of the rain to snow events, in our region, from years past.

Here's two I remember vividly. Firstly 8th Dec.1981, living in an Inner London borough at the time and heavy rain set in around about the morning rush-hour and eventually turned to snow, to give a couple of inches by late morning. As we all know the weather then stayed mostly very cold down here, right up until Xmas day, although no snow fell on the big day, around 3 inches or so remained on the ground, in the Bromley area, which melted a few days later.

Now Mon. 21st Dec 2009, rain started falling in Croydon around mid-afternoon but reports soon started coming in of a transition to snow from higher parts of the area, over the North Downs, (especially from Yamkin, in the Shirley Hills)

Snow started falling in the Croydon town centre, just before the early evening rush-hour began and traffic chaos ensued. Took me over 4 hours to travel the 10 miles or so to SE12. I'm sure many of you had similar nightmare journeys that evening.

Here the archive chart from midnight, a few hours after the snow had stopped, showing how marginal that event was, with colder air digging back down from the NW over parts of the region, enough to cause snow to reach ground level.

I find rain to snow events can be more fun than all snow events, as they are obviously that much harder to forecast and what with the surprise element, seeing a wet dreary landscape turn white, when you least expect it, adds even more excitement to our geeky fetish with the white stuff.

Tom.

Yes, there have been a few of those rain to snow events that I can remember. One was sometime in the mid 80's, I remember cycling home from college in the lashing rain and 6C temps. By 8pm the rain had turned to snow and was beginning to settle. Snowed all night and I woke up to a think blanket of snow and temps of -2C. That cold spell lasted a week, was great and not really forecast.

[HammerJack]

Morning all. A lovely bright and crisp start to the day here. Mind you it was a bit chilly driving into London on my motorbike this morning. I had to stop off for a cheeky Costa to warm up. Have a great one all.

[Mark Neal.]

A Foggy morning here, temperature of 4.4c. Off to basingstoke soon

[Jax]

Morning all

 

Missed the frost (if we had one) this morning, stayed under the duvet a bit longer as it is my day off, looks cold out, not been out yet but will do soon as I need to peg out the washing which is nearly ready.  Must say after the bright and sunny day yesterday it is a lot duller today, suspect we had some overnight mist/fog/low cloud which has lifted since.

[Captain Shortwave]

Morning, a bit grey and murky this morning. No frost by the looks of it.

[Jax]

Morning, a bit grey and murky this morning. No frost by the looks of it.

same here, have put the washing out on the line rather than draping it all round the house, but suspect I will be doing that later anyway, also got the outside temp thingy working again and it has come back at 11.1oC and must admit it does not feel as cold out as some recent days have.