South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13

[Steve C]

Early cloud has lifted here, which is a nice surprise. At this time of year I tend to think that cloud will stick around.

[Jax]

Well with the temps looking set to tumble next week I have set up one of the easels in the lounge again, was going to put a fan heater in the spare room and then thought better of it as I am already heating the lounge.  Which is handy in a way as I now have 3 setup round the house in different places so I can continue to work on stuff almost anytime now.

 

The grey dull gloom continues to "stick" around here, not looking very promising this far into the day, not even a glimer of sun so far, the lead skies would appear to be in for the day at this rate, fully expect some fog/mist to drop in this evening and over night.

[fluid dynamic]

nipped into MOD thread earlier and wished I hadn't.  Exhausting reading and felt very protective of our regionals who post in there, Tamara and the Cap'n coming immediately to mind, but to all that have ventured there over the last few days, well done!  It never fails to surprise me how something as dramatic, wonderful, frustrating and enlightening as the weather can generate so much anger.  There are, after all, some more important things around than whether it might sleet or snow in a week's time.

 

Anyway, the fire's still going and at this rate it could be a night of music and cricket......

 

BB54 if you are around have you tried the Cerys Matthews 6Music show 10 am Sundays, yet?  You might just love it, a few hours of wonder.

 

AS

 

My feelings exactly AS, on the model thread. Quite strange how wound up some enthusiasts get, but then without them somehow it would be dull.

 

Being experienced in fluid dynamics (hence the monker) but in different applications than the atmosphere, I can see how the varibility takes place. End of, really  

 

Am liking Cerys' resurgence too.

[fluid dynamic]

I am having a sneezing fit most mornings at the moment, hadn't thought it was the cold air from when I let the dog out first thing. Not usually up this early on a Saturday but had to sleep at 8 last night after a 9 hour teaching session for my MBA students - problem with CFS, which I suffer from, is something like that leads to a massive crash straight after and a few days recovery. We're off to Sandbanks later for some R&R. 

 

Lovely looking morning out there, clear blue skies and sunshine with a slight frost on the grass, which is starting to look a bit long again... hmmm, not sure hubby will be that pleased to do a 'final final' mow of the lawn, but those who were saying short grass adds to the snow inches may be on to something when the Snow Cup comes around again. And having said the S word and seen Surrey's post, I'm trying REALLY hard not to get excited for next week's prospects 

 

Have a lovely day everyone.

 

I read about someone on this thread cutting their grass - made me feel guilty and I did front and back yesterday in glorious sunshine - almost choking and killing the poor old electric mower, might have to ask Santa for a petrol engined one.

 

Am primed and ready for the SNOW CUP !!!

[Jax]

I read about someone on this thread cutting their grass - made me feel guilty and I did front and back yesterday in glorious sunshine - almost choking and killing the poor old electric mower, might have to ask Santa for a petrol engined one.

 

Am primed and ready for the SNOW CUP !!!

You will need to send santa HERE then for the best ones

[fluid dynamic]

You will need to send santa HERE then for the best ones

cheers!

That £159 job looks just right. We havent a huge area of grass (about 35m by 9m total front and back) but I think that mower is very similar to my neighbour's, which he loves very much, he's always out with it

[Jax]

cheers!

That £159 job looks just right. We havent a huge area of grass (about 35m by 9m total front and back) but I think that mower is very similar to my neighbour's, which he loves very much, he's always out with it

My parents rent two large'ish paddocks and when they could not put their flock of sheep or loan horses on them that is the brand of mower they always use to tame the taller grass.  They do seem to be pretty hard working and sturdy for the task at hand.

[Tamara]

Some frost on the shed roof this morning, nice to see!

 

Thought I'd post this video from Matt Taylor, explaining the difficulties of forecasting snow. 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24954812

 

Obviously basic stuff for us weather geeks but got me thinking about some of the rain to snow events, in our region, from years past.

 

Here's two I remember vividly. Firstly 8th Dec.1981, living in an Inner London borough at the time and heavy rain set in around about the morning rush-hour and eventually turned to snow, to give a couple of inches by late morning. As we all know the weather then stayed mostly very cold down here, right up until Xmas day, although no snow fell on the big day, around 3 inches or so remained on the ground, in the Bromley area, which melted a few days later.

 

 

Now Mon. 21st Dec 2009, rain started falling in Croydon around mid-afternoon but reports soon started coming in of a transition to snow from higher parts of the area, over the North Downs, (especially from Yamkin, in the Shirley Hills)

Snow started falling in the Croydon town centre, just before the early evening rush-hour began and traffic chaos ensued. Took me over 4 hours to travel the 10 miles or so to SE12. I'm sure many of you had similar nightmare journeys that evening.

Here the archive chart from midnight, a few hours after the snow had stopped, showing how marginal that event was, with colder air digging back down from the NW over parts of the region, enough to cause snow to reach ground level.

 

 

I find rain to snow events can be more fun than all snow events, as they are obviously that much harder to forecast and what with the surprise element, seeing a wet dreary landscape turn white, when you least expect it, adds even more excitement to our geeky fetish with the white stuff.

 

Tom.

Hi Tomasino

 

One that I remember, much less well known, was 6 January 1994 while I was living on the Surrey/Hants borders.  It rained heavily that afternoon with temperatures only a few degrees above freezing and this steadily started to change to sleet and then heavy wet snow. By early evening thick flakes were falling slowly to the ground with no wind whatsoever and snow started rapidly accumulating. I remember this well because I was in the local village that evening and returning home from the local Indian restaurant was an interesting journey to say the least. The snow stopped by late evening and left probably about 10cms which froze hard under sparkly skies that night   The following day, thanks to being in something of a frost hollow, the snow stayed around despite temperatures above freezing during the day. It was not really a cold spell as such, just a colder few days in what was otherwise quite an unremarkable winter.

 

The official forecasts for that day had told of showers of a heavy wintry mix, but clearly with no wind and temperatures only a few degrees above freezing, then evaporative cooling was an easy process and snow falling at higher altitude was able to pull temperatures down to freezing due to the fact that the precipitation was both heavy and continuous for several hours.  Largely unforecast in terms of any warnings, the snow covered two distinct belts - the first across my own region (at the time) and extending northwards towards the south midlands - and another one to the north west of London that gave the Chilterns especially some very significant snow fall.

 

Synopsis for that day - a cold cyclonic picture across the UK with light and variable winds towards a large area of southern and central parts especially

 

 

 

The snow cup competiton might have been interesting that day  - if the net weather regional thread existed back then

Edited November 16, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[SteveCoops]

I read about someone on this thread cutting their grass - made me feel guilty and I did front and back yesterday in glorious sunshine - almost choking and killing the poor old electric mower, might have to ask Santa for a petrol engined one.

 

Am primed and ready for the SNOW CUP !!!

Argh you're making me feel bad now. Last time I did ours was about 6 weeks ago and that almost killed the mower then! It really does need doing though.,..

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Tams,Nice reading to accompany my lunch. Yes, there are a few other rain > snow events that I vaguely remember, think there were one or two in the cold and wintry winter of 78/79. Also I can remember an occasion in Jan.1985, I can remember it being a Saturday, late afternoon, with early rain gradually turning to snow and giving a light covering, as colder air advanced from the east.Just found the archive chart for 00z on the 12th. You can see the shortwave over Denmark that dropped SW during the day, which was the trigger for enabling that Continental air to work its way into our region.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850112.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850113.gifRegards,Tom.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[Snowangel-MK]

Afternoon all,

 

There was a bit of brightness here earlier but at that point I couldn't face getting up and out of bed 

 

 

..........pretty miserable now though but as it's a work afternoon and tomorrow is a DIY indoor jobs day it's really not going to affect weekend plans !!

[Jax]

Just finished running the vacuum cleaner round the place, washing still not drying, bit of a non day really weather wise, remains dull and err dull...

[Summer of 76]

Just ordered my new vehicle in order to get to the regional Christmas meal next week

 

[lottiekent]

Hi Tams,Nice reading to accompany my lunch. Yes, there are a few other rain > snow events that I vaguely remember, think there were one or two in the cold and wintry winter of 78/79. Also I can remember an occasion in Jan.1985, I can remember it being a Saturday, late afternoon, with early rain gradually turning to snow and giving a light covering, as colder air advanced from the east.Just found the archive chart for 00z on the 12th. You can see the shortwave over Denmark that dropped SW during the day, which was the trigger for enabling that Continental air to work its way in to our region.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850112.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850113.gifRegards,Tom.

Hi Tom - one significant rain to snow I remember was winter 96-97. Went to bed disappointed as they'd promised snow that evening and it was belting it down with rain. Woke in the morning thinking it was still raining. Opened curtains and we'd had a decent covering go snow..that lasted a few days with some nice snow coming in from the NE and East. Edited November 16, 2013 by lottiekent

[abruzzi spur]

Afternoon all

It was a beautiful morning, cold, sunny, clear blue skies, frost on the grass in the park at 9am, with glowing Autumn colours all around. Later in the morning it stayed sunny all through the under 10s football match and for most of an early afternoon walk before getting home for the rugby. Patchy cloud rolled in during the walk and it's now uniformly grey. Was stunning whilst it lasted.

AS

[Charltonkerry]

Enjoying the rugby, makes a change from the fairy footballers I normally watch. Beautiful clear blue sky's at present.

Teach me to say how nice it was, it's now clouded over.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Charltonkerry

[Team Jo]

Temps dropped right off here, just 4c now....

 

Awaiting the madness of the 12z........

[Ruthie]

Wales just about scraped a win then, haha!! Nice one the boys.

Temp dropping here, but some cloud creeped over before it got dark.

I can feel a night in with homemade chilli, red wine and some films coming on!!

[bluearmy]

I think JP will be brushing down the 2010 archives after that ukmo 12z run. Probable? Unlikely, but the fact that it evolves in that way is worthy of discussion.

[john pike]

Hi ba

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN144-21.GIF?16-18

Lovely :-)

[Freezeflake]

Looks nice... If only that high was stronger and further north

[john pike]

 

hi freeze

 

the high being a tad stronger and further north may be better long term

 

but short term for us lot that would give a strong chance of snow here

 

although dew points and uppers etc will all come into play

 

so predicting off that chart at the moment is difficult

 

certainly looks nice to me though

 

as always after 144 the models are struggling with the low in the atlantic

 

from my observations at present the atlantic looks like going asleep for a while now

 

hope so

[Guest bjaykent]

 

hi freeze

 

the high being a tad stronger and further north may be better long term

 

but short term for us lot that would give a strong chance of snow here

 

although dew points and uppers etc will all come into play

 

so predicting off that chart at the moment is difficult

 

certainly looks nice to me though

 

as always after 144 the models are struggling with the low in the atlantic

 

from my observations at present the atlantic looks like going asleep for a while now

 

hope so

Hi JP, nice UKMO run, looks like the you're going to be busy with the fax this week, FI is getting ever closer with that shortwave.

[SteveCoops]

Metcheck is now giving me 10cm of snow Wednesday  

[john pike]

hi bjaykent

 

be fascinating to see whether the met office when they do the fax

 

go with ukmo

 

best guide will be tomorrow night but tonight should still be interesting

 

i wonder what mood the 18z will be in tonight

 

the other thing which will be interesting will be the ecm ensembles which are out just  after 11pm

 

gfs ensembles show this

 

 

the main run was one of the warmest for the 22nd

 

precip still showing 19th-21st

 

the main run looks a tad loopy after the 25th but has a little agreement

 

heres pet no.2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=2&mode=1&carte=0