South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13

[Mark Neal.]

press f5

i like that 120 chart

That trough sweeping down from the North could well be wintry for some!

[john pike]

 

 

not a bad guess

hi jax

 

its all good fun mate

[Guest bjaykent]

Pub run certainly extending the cold into the following weekend but will it be there by 0Z, probably not.

[Jax]

 

 

not a bad guess

hi jax

 

its all good fun mate

jessusss that is winter in a bun

[Jason T]

Hello all, What a day, All went wrong for me at 8.30 this morning, Work mate, Well (WAS) He put a jerry can in boot of my car half full of Red diesel for the fork lift at new site, Guess what was waiting for me when I opened the boot of my car, 10 ltrs of diesel spilt all in my boot and under my back seats....., 2 words came to my Mouth, Cant say the second part, The first one was  YOU...,  Its taken me ages to get it out, Smell still there, That will take weeks to bugger of. Anyway, ITN News 6" of snow next week.

[john pike]

lets see what these show at present

 

a cold north west flow

 

temps

 

 

cold around 4 degrees

 

looks mainly dry

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

a cold north east flow

 

low north sea and trough over the south east

 

temps

 

 

slight differences here but close enough for now

 

temps 2-4 degrees and very cold in the wind

 

 

its near on impossible to predict precipitation at present

 

however snowfall is very possible with that set up

 

all depends on dew points etc etc but nearer the time for that

 

all in all

 

nice

[Mark Neal.]

Hello all,, ITN News 6" of snow next week.

They been looking at maddens crystal ball in wonder?

[abruzzi spur]

nipped into MOD thread earlier and wished I hadn't.  Exhausting reading and felt very protective of our regionals who post in there, Tamara and the Cap'n coming immediately to mind, but to all that have ventured there over the last few days, well done!  It never fails to surprise me how something as dramatic, wonderful, frustrating and enlightening as the weather can generate so much anger.  There are, after all, some more important things around than whether it might sleet or snow in a week's time.

 

Anyway, the fire's still going and at this rate it could be a night of music and cricket......

 

BB54 if you are around have you tried the Cerys Matthews 6Music show 10 am Sundays, yet?  You might just love it, a few hours of wonder.

 

AS

[Captain Shortwave]

hi jax

 

its what i expect what you said

 

however i reckon around 23rd onwards the high will be shoved back west

 

my thoughts at present

 

lets see where we might go with this

I'm feeling a Scandi high easterly after the initial cold plunge. Unbelievably this results in me thinking the 06/18z GFS runs today are probably the closest to the correct solution. 

But it's just my view to be honest, and probably cursed this evolution now.

I'd take the pub run, plenty of potential opportunity for snow showers along with some bitterly cold and sunny days.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[ChartViewer]

Anomaly charts 10-14 day...High pressure just North of UK.......In line with latest models...Certainly no sinking of the Mid atlantic high

 

[Jason T]

They been looking at maddens crystal ball in wonder?

 

 

Maybe mate, But the current pattern is volatile atm, I truly believe a few real shockers on the way...It don't involve Zonal Either lol.

[john pike]

hi captain

 

i hate to say this but i feel the pub run

 

looks a more realistic run

 

i think that the models are missing a potential block

 

to our east-north east

 

would not be the first time either

[john pike]

hi cv

 

i would bank that

 

thanks

[Guest bjaykent]

hi captain

 

i hate to say this but i feel the pub run

 

looks a more realistic run

 

i think that the models are missing a potential block

 

to our east-north east

 

would not be the first time either

Thanks JP, quite shocking to hear you say the Pub run might be right, feels like an alternate universe, will watch with interest over the weekend, what fun and its still only November!

[john pike]

hi bjaykent

 

i am still in shock that i said that

 

the fax chart at 120 to me looked really good

 

the most accurate at when the fax get inside 84 so sunday night

 

i will go more indepth with it

 

i am going for a stiff brandy

 

good for shock i believe

[john pike]

ecm london ensembles

 

temps

 

 

note the 20th

 

the main ecm run is one of the warmest ensembles there

 

fi the 21st on as a big scatter there

 

the mean-yellow run looks a tad cold as well

 

rain

 

 

note 18th-20th-23rd

 

20th interesting as looks close agreement there

 

i will post the gfs ensembles to see where the main run fits in with them

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=323&y=149&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

short gfs so far

 

[bluearmy]

ecm london ensembles

 

temps

 

 

note the 20th

 

the main ecm run is one of the warmest ensembles there

 

fi the 21st on as a big scatter there

 

the mean-yellow run looks a tad cold as well

 

rain

 

 

note 18th-20th-23rd

 

20th interesting as looks close agreement there

 

i will post the gfs ensembles to see where the main run fits in with them

 

clearly it remains cold john. the question is whether it stays very cold after the initial cold arrives next week. a fascinating w/end of watching begins ...........................

[Captain Shortwave]

Some mutterings from the strat gurus that also suggests that Scandinavia would be a reasonable place for a blocking high to develop. If that did happen all we need really is uppers at or below about -6C and for core heights to be sufficiently north to suppress convection. 

For our part of the world, things look pretty good in my opinion.

Completely agree with BA to be honest, just going with the flow and maybe we get some snow next week, but no worries if we don't.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

who reckons the thread might get a bit busy soon

 

just waiting to see if i can find any ramp charts tonight

[john pike]

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Some mutterings from the strat gurus that also suggests that Scandinavia would be a reasonable place for a blocking high to develop. If that did happen all we need really is uppers at or below about -6C and for core heights to be sufficiently north to suppress convection. 

For our part of the world, things look pretty good in my opinion.

Completely agree with BA to be honest, just going with the flow and maybe we get some snow next week, but no worries if we don't.

Two things, first one non weather related, well done on getting the job.

 

As far as the weather is concerned, we could have an interesting week, I think the sea temps are still too high at the moment, unless we have some insanely low uppers.  Many places inland may get some wintry precipitation, which is pretty amazing considering the charts of just a couple of weeks ago.

 

Thanks again to John Pike for informative posts that are cool and considered and also from JP for the occasional ramp .

 

Great to be a part of this thread.

[Jason T]

Right my good thread buddy's, Of to bed, Mega early start, Be a cold one for me.. ...Good night all, Enjoy your weekend, Speak tomorrow.

[john pike]

[john pike]

 

 

hi northnorfolk

 

thankyou

 

sea temps have dropped pretty quickly lately

 

one advantage of these being a tad warmer

 

plenty of convection

 

will it be cold enough??

 

more runs needed but the overall outlook is cold so thats the start

 

more run fun tomorrow

 

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

main gfs run is now one of the coldest runs now

 

it has support to the 23rd

 

fi around the 23rd

 

cold showing from the 19th to the 26th

 

more fun likely tomorrow

 

 

goodnight all and have a great weekend

 

best regards

 

john