Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Timmytour]

ah sorry select your charts then click previous run on the right hand side

 

 

 

Sorry Gav...I was referring to actually viewing the GFS run as opposed to posting

 

 

just keep adding the pics only click the image button you should find they'll be side by side when you click preview post

 

another way it to add one pic then left click half way down the pic on the high right hand side you should see a flashing courser thing just click the image tag and add your pic again when you click preview post they should all be side by side

 

 

While I watch the GFS 18z roll out, is anyone able to tell me how I get to view my two chosen charts side by side like they used to be instead of one underneath the other?

 

Really sorry Gav and i really appreciate your responses, but I'm not making myself clear.

What i want to look at is two charts side by side like you show...whether a previous chart of the 850pa,,.but at the moment they appear one on top of the other instead of side by side....so i have to scroll down to see the second chart I've selected

[MR EXTREMES]

18z looks a lot slower at bringing and easterly is this good or bad or is it the high is to far south?

[Snowman.]

The GFS is on an epic adventure of self-discovery.

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The GFS is on an epic adventure of self-discovery.

 

Nothing new there then! From my memory, during winter months the 18z GFS can throw up some lovely charts if cold and snow are your thing only to be obliterated by the 00z run in the morning. Lets see where we end up in half an hour. Edited November 18, 2013 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Barry12]

GFS is having none of the ECMS coffee

 

[Jason T]

GFS is having none of the ECMS coffee

 

 

 

Gfs love it, 2 steps forward, 3 steps back.

[nick sussex]

Yuk! no don't like this, that amplification upstream isn't sufficient to take this mystery tour anywhere interesting so I'm getting off. Hopefully by the morning we can get some agreement, the GFS initially showed some promise at the start of the run but slipped into mediocrity pretty quickly!

[Snowman.]

What a difference a run makes..

 

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

two bites of the cherry maybe not looking good although fi looking like our uk high pressure sinking se into Europe if it spins round any futher it will be southerlies although another pulse of high pressure from the azores.

 

Gordon bennet this is really crazy stuff.

[Joe Levy]

As other posters are pointing out very aptly, the lack of agreement the gfs is showing is extraordinary! I am not willing to offer my backing to any of the models yet, but at least I can say that the ECM has created for itself a broad trend within which it fluctuates slightly. None of these wild swings that the gfs is showing

[DAVID SNOW]

GFS is having none of the ECMS coffee

 

18z gfs doesn't care much for coffee, it does like the odd beer or 5 though

[radiohead]

Its worth remembering that the only difference between an 18Z run and a 12Z run is that 18Z has been assimiliated with the latest observations since the 12Z ran. Its still the same computer doing the same calculations with the same formula, only the observations have changed, which leads to a different outcome.

[Snowman.]

Choo Choo all aboard the zonal train!

 

Westerlies past the 200 mark.

[Timmytour]

Its worth remembering that the only difference between an 18Z run and a 12Z run is that 18Z has been assimiliated with the latest observations since the 12Z ran. Its still the same computer doing the same calculations with the same formula, only the observations have changed, which leads to a different outcome.

 

And within those different outcomes therein lie "tipping points" which may take projections in a radically different direction than before. Consistent can appear good, but if those consistent projections don't materialise, they are just as useless as the erratic stuff 

Edited November 18, 2013 by Timmytour

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Choo Choo all aboard the zonal train!

 

Westerlies past the 200 mark.

Erm not sure what you think zonal but that's as far as zonal as you can possibly get.

[MR EXTREMES]

na it don't look right at all I think big bin a big recycling bin do our big for global warming it just looks like a true pub run I think this time its had way way to many.

 

certainly not zonal its an slack easterly but absolutely unrealistic look at the 12z then few hours later and this absolutely noway right.

 

im not even bothered about this run its chaotic.

Edited November 18, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Mucka]

Choo Choo all aboard the zonal train!

 

 

 

Westerlies past the 200 mark.

 

Westerlies? From there?

[Snowman.]

Erm not sure what you think zonal but that's as far as zonal as you can possibly get.

Read the bottom bit.

 

Even if there is low heights in Europe the GFS will find a way, especially more so since its the 18z.

[Ali1977]

NE'ly coming my guess, lots of Heights heading north at 180

[damianslaw]

Meto and ECM sticking firm with the cold blocked outlook - as high pressure places itself over and to the east of the country. However, it would take awhile for colder uppers to infiltrate there way into the country - there is no established cold pool to our NE yet.

 

GFS is trending to the ECM evolution.

 

Word of caution as ever when looking beyond 120 hrs - developments over the last 48 hours show how sudden short term development can change things markedly. The depth of the trough feature moving down from the NW this Wednesday has only been picked up in the last 24 hours, and it is a developing feature with quite a marked warm front - gone is the forecasted dry sunny cold day and now Thursday looks a thoroughly miserable wet day with temps around 7-8 degrees, hardly cold with snow reserved for the very highest ground only.

[Snowman.]

 

Could go either way.

 

GFS does a U-turn sends that low west then up then back east.

 

OR

 

The low rides up the side extending heights northwards ending in a similar way as of the 12z. 

[Richie V]

Indeed Damien, if I can't have zonal, at least i'll get me a good gale. A pleasent surprise for me. Yep, i'm a wet n windy im afraid

[Mucka]

A bit of NAVGEM after the usual GFS let down.

 

[Snowman.]

Oh look a surface high!

 

Dragging in southerlies.

 

Completely different run to what the 12z was showing just goes to show the tiny details at the 120 mark make a huge difference.

 

Gaz will be here soon...

Edited November 18, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Snowman.]

ohh baby NAVGEM looking sweet.

 

 

 

That little trough over Belgium and that negative titled low is looking nice dragging pressure up.

Edited November 18, 2013 by SN0WM4N