Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[alexisj9]

na it don't look right at all I think big bin a big recycling bin do our big for global warming it just looks like a true pub run I think this time its had way way to many.

 

certainly not zonal its an slack easterly but absolutely unrealistic look at the 12z then few hours later and this absolutely noway right.

 

im not even bothered about this run its chaotic.

You have to remember Melissa was only an invest in the last run, she is a lot stronger now, a big change in data = big change in out put. Not saying GFS is right mind, probably just a bit lost as can happen with this model, let's see what happens when it resolves this change in a few runs.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The last 10 gfs have been different every time. It's got to be the most volatile period from the gfs I have ever saw .

I think given the inconsistencies of it we all need to bin it . Until it can get some consistency in its modelling we simply cannot take it seriously . Take more note of ensembles .

[johnholmes]

SHORTWAVE! 

 

 

gawd another!

which is a short wave then, SE of Greenland or that west of Italy, both are depressions not short waves!

[SMU]

A bit of NAVGEM after the usual GFS let down.

 

 

indeed back on board with the ECM - looks like the GFS will get PWNT by all the models at the end of this...

 

S

[Snowman.]

gawd another!

which is a short wave then, SE of Greenland or that west of Italy, both are depressions not short waves!

The greenie one starts off as this.

 

[Frosty.]

I often think the 18z is pointless and just tagged on at the end of a long day as a token gesture to make up the numbers, we already have more than enough information from the earlier output to know we are going to have a cold blocked outlook, 18z you are the weakest link..goodbye

[johnholmes]

The greenie one starts off as this.

 

 

 

so why is it a short wave then please?

[Gavin Hannah]

I've never seen such a bicker between the models. The GFS 12z couldn't be more different from the ECM. Personally, I prefer the ECM as i'm a coldie, but where the GFS was looking promising last week, it's now down to which one is going to give ground.

[fergieweather]

18z GFS a fairly good duplicate, at least for fair part of run, of latest EC32 in some respects (latter builds high across Denmark early-mid Dec & maintains jo-average temps for UK at that juncture... v dry anomalies throughout).

[Mucka]

indeed back on board with the ECM - looks like the GFS will get PWNT by all the models at the end of this...

 

S

 

LOL Steve, keep the faith Sir.

It would be nice for ECM go back in that direction tomorrow though wouldn't it?

Edited November 18, 2013 by Mucka

[bobbydog]

at this moment in time, the only model where we can look at the picture it gives us and be sure of the end result is this one-

 

 

 

 

[cheese]

2m temps at 174 hours (as posted by SN0WMAN):

 

 

Still looks decidedly chilly regardless of the upper air temperature profile.

Edited November 18, 2013 by cheese

[Mucka]

GFS really struggling obviously and that shows with the spread in the ensembles even out to 96h but Steve will like these me think.

 

 

 

GFS will still probably flatten most of those out but it is the first time other than the odd run the ensembles have smelt ECM's cheese (Hope people get that reference)

 

Edit:

 

What a weird coincidence a poster called Cheese posted above me, nothing to do with you Cheese. (smell my cheese from Alan Partridge and also reference GFS smelling ECM's coffee) - not funny if you have to explain them, oh well

Edited November 18, 2013 by Mucka

[Mucka]

Lots of Westerlies in FI in the GFS ensembles for the first time in a long time, just noise for now and that often happens when GFS is searching for a new signal (doesn't have to be Westerlies, that is sort of GFS's default - a kind of comfort blanket  )

[snowmadchrisuk]

Come on CFS it is only 22 days away ... 

 

[Panayiotis]

Ive been looking at the extended forecast for my area on the BBC website (as this could hold to info that the met doesnt release publicly) and what it shows is essentially the max and min of the ensemble suite (if you would call it that). On the earlier update the lowest minimum for the 27th was -1C, now its -5C supporting the idea of colder members.

I used the same principle last year and I noticed that when lower minima (below -3C/-4C) wass shown,it was actually proven that colder weather was on the horizon.

As ive noticed it being at -5C, I will see if it continues in showing that over the next few days.

 

[bryan629]

well if I can have my 2`penneth worth, now that it seems a free for all in here....it does look like the gfs wants to settle for anything it can muster run to run  which may or may not happen , its so inconsistent its fast becoming a laughing stock

 

the ecm is backtracking a little bit from what was shown a few days ago too... but still ends up leaving the uk in a good situation for cold and frosty weather, indeed foggy to boot... it has always been good towards the end of each run lately in bringing us a scandi high with some sort of easterly to a bigger or lesser degree.

 

 

there is a lot going on in the next few days in our atmosphere....that's what makes model watching so fascinating at times like these..wave 2 in the strat and a TS Mellissa heading out of the tropics.... so a good amount of information to shove in any models blender at the moment and not forgetting its the latter stages of Autumn.

 

can we expect a Nov/Dec 2010 repeat... I think not ...but not too far away from it.... why, because I think the models are not making enough of a shortwave at t168 or there abouts...its just about there on the Gfs and a little bit clearer on the ecm tonight...I tried to upload some paint jobs but gave it up as a bad job...

 

what I was trying to show you was IF the shortwave comes off , the high will be split, it will head off over to scandi and low pressures from Canada /s.greenland will undercut said HP ...

Edited November 19, 2013 by bryan629

[TSNWK]

GFS makes for ugly reading

My take if I may. . High presure bouncing between the uk and Scandinavia throughout is my take. It did look a bit dodgy around 144 with the low coming in from the west, but it then dropped south towards Spain, i guess indicates a strong southern arm on the jet which is no bad thing for coldies, high presure then rebuilds towards Scandinavia, no Atlantic throughout run.Ukmo.. Not sure, think I prefered gfs for cold, defo southeast drift of " our high " between 120 and 144 and the Atlantic profiles towards Canada looked as though the low had a positive tilt, which I believe is not good for coldies. Edited November 19, 2013 by TSNWK

[The PIT]

The normal chopping and changing in deep FI as expected. The consistent theme is being that the temperatures being below normal as to how we maintain it is the question.

[Polar Maritime]

From MattHugo over on the statt thread...

 

NB: Latest (overnight) EC32 update continues the trend from the last update and that is to maintain high pressure near or over the UK right through to the 15th of Dec. This seems quite an extended period for a time of year when climatologically you would expect some sort of Atlantic influence. I'm not 100% sure if the EC upgrades have been incorporated into this update or not, but I would image they will have been to the update later in the week, so it'll be interesting to see if there is a sudden shift. But again its high pressure and temperatures at or around 1C or 2C below average from the EC32 well into December.

Edited November 19, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Man With Beard]

UKMO, ECM, and GFS all agree on one thing this morning - High pressure slap bang over the top of us by T144.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Last third of November is going to be very cold under a UK high,its a shame the stellar ECM runs of yesterday are not going to happen though.

 

These sort of charts would be fantastic in July/August at this time of year they will bring very cold days and night.

[shaky]

From MattHugo over on the statt thread...

NB: Latest (overnight) EC32 update continues the trend from the last update and that is to maintain high pressure near or over the UK right through to the 15th of Dec. This seems quite an extended period for a time of year when climatologically you would expect some sort of Atlantic influence. I'm not 100% sure if the EC upgrades have been incorporated into this update or not, but I would image they will have been to the update later in the week, so it'll be interesting to see if there is a sudden shift. But again its high pressure and temperatures at or around 1C or 2C below average from the EC32 well into December.

at least we got high pressure and temps of 2 degrees below normal!!it coukd be a lot worse!!looking forward to hopefullly all the fog and frost

[MR EXTREMES]

From MattHugo over on the statt thread...

NB: Latest (overnight) EC32 update continues the trend from the last update and that is to maintain high pressure near or over the UK right through to the 15th of Dec. This seems quite an extended period for a time of year when climatologically you would expect some sort of Atlantic influence. I'm not 100% sure if the EC upgrades have been incorporated into this update or not, but I would image they will have been to the update later in the week, so it'll be interesting to see if there is a sudden shift. But again its high pressure and temperatures at or around 1C or 2C below average from the EC32 well into December.

Certainly can't complain but would rather have high energy bill due to snowy conditions lol.

The models across the board are awful again even the ecm is starting to loose heights later into fi.

[Ian Brown]

Yes, HP dominated models this morning with just slightly differing positioning on offer. Whilst we maintain the low heights over Southern Europe, a sinker can be prevented but the models are cranking up the PV later on.