Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Biggin]

ECM yesterday 12z: ECM1-168 (2).gif

Today: ECM1-144 (3).gif

GFS T144 as well: gfs-0-144 (1).png

Edit Sorry mods was a one liner, and yeah, I know

Edited November 18, 2013 by Biggin

[Timmytour]

I think, however differently they may be modelling the extent and depth of the colder weather we are about to encounter, the models are nevertheless in broad agreement that we are in for a drier than average spell of weather for the time of year during the next couple of weeks.I can't help thinking that the Environment Agency must be involved here. In April 2012 it warned of a drought continuing till Christmas after which the heavens duly opened http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17690389 Just a few days ago they were warning of the risks of floods and now, perhaps, we face a spell of dry settled weather.if only we could get them to warn us of the dangers of a mild snowless winter!!   

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean can best be described as cold, blocked and becoming increasingly anticyclonic although for a while, the eastern side of the uk will have wintry showers but then eventually we pretty much share the same weather as western europe, cold and bright, fog and frost at night..no sign whatsoever of a change to milder atlantic weather, that door appears to be locked for a while yet...so it's ice, frost, some snow, mainly at elevation and a growing risk of freezing fog, especially next week.

[Tim Bland]

The theme if the high eventually sinking is what the meto are going with so I believe it's most likely. IMO as a snow lover I would rather it gets on with it so we can look for the next build of pressure up towards Greenland. After the front on Weds Cold and dry looks the theme for the nxt 10 days or so

[SMU]

Again, not to just stick on the ECM but at day 10 the operational shows the cold spell far from over, infact its beginning to click into another gear with day 11/12 probably seeing bitter air move west towards the UK 7 the possibly westward retrogression of the high, all at a time when we are fast approaching day 1 of winter, by then the chances of lowland snow begin to move towards the optimum period, I know its only a few days- but at this stage I am glad of the timing.....

 

S

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Massive upgrades happening tonight! Could well be some early snow for real haha. I am also liking that massive cold blast packing a punch into Europe on GFS! Very tasty indeed. This could well bode into a very exciting winter.

Edited November 18, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Frosty.]

Again, not to just stick on the ECM but at day 10 the operational shows the cold spell far from over, infact its beginning to click into another gear with day 11/12 probably seeing bitter air move west towards the UK 7 the possibly westward retrogression of the high, all at a time when we are fast approaching day 1 of winter, by then the chances of lowland snow begin to move towards the optimum period, I know its only a few days- but at this stage I am glad of the timing.....

 

S

We are still at the mercy of mogreps mid range pattern change which I had hoped would back down, I want to see the weather coming at us from the north or east as much as anyone...we get so close on the ecm 12z op.

[MR EXTREMES]

can someone please explain is matty m right in his assessment or not im getting rather confused ?

[Ian Brown]

The theme if the high eventually sinking is what the meto are going with so I believe it's most likely. IMO as a snow lover I would rather it gets on with it so we can look for the next build of pressure up towards Greenland. After the front on Weds Cold and dry looks the theme for the nxt 10 days or so

 

Waiting for a High to sink is a great time eater because not only do you have that, you then have the zonal phase that is going to follow and last X number of weeks. That said, we don't know that that is what will happen. We are speculating on shortwaves at days 9/10 and there is a whole lot that could happen between now and then even though the 3-7 day outlook is benign.

[IDO]

The ten day ECM mean close enough to the op in synoptics:

Mean: OP:

Uppers not so cold on the mean:

Closer to home, the Fax has the warm sector smaller than previously; followed by a trough following in the colder air:

GFS picks this band of sleet/snow up at roughly the same time (T60):

Temps:

Dewpoints borderline:

A few hours of light snow in the SE on the Downs Thursday morning???

Edited November 18, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

can someone please explain is matty m right in his assessment or not im getting rather confused ?

 

if you're getting confused then you are understanding the situation perfectly !

[Ian Brown]

can someone please explain is matty m right in his assessment or not im getting rather confused ?

 

He is if you take that mean at face value - you can't get HLB from that specific chart, but given the scatter the ensemble mean is just that and it is a long way off. 

[Man With Beard]

ECM mean at T192 suggests a strong block over the north sea - too close to allow snow but certainly cold all the same

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Massive upgrades happening tonight! Could well be some early snow for real haha. I am also liking that massive cold blast packing a punch into Europe on GFS! Very tasty indeed. This could well bode into a very exciting winter.

Really hope you're right!! All I keep on looking at is whether the PV cranks up or not. Long may the current trends continue when winter gets going over the next few weeks. Edited November 18, 2013 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[itsnowjoke]

can someone please explain is matty m right in his assessment or not im getting rather confused ?

Yes me too im not great at reading the models and dont understand all of it yet especially about short waves pkease help sorry mods but if i dont ask i dont get thankyou.

[pdiddy]

can someone please explain is matty m right in his assessment or not im getting rather confused ?

Looks anything but zonal to me - slack Easterly from the high.

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

The control run underpins my comments above. Best set of ensembles to date.

 

Mattys comments about a slow sinker appear to have no foundation based on the ECM ensembles, also the MOGREPS was wrong on the last bitter easterly scenario- but soon caught up.

 

Expect positive updates from Ian  F soon.

 

S

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM mean at T192 suggests a strong block over the north sea - too close to allow snow but certainly cold all the same

 

Certainly be cold, areas prone to fog would get ice days from this set up. The slack cold easterly here should keep things brighter with isolated wintry showers

[radiohead]

The day 10 pressure anomaly on the ECM ENS has slipped further south and east on the 12Z. Still a cold outlook, but a more dry one.

[bluearmy]

looking at the alternative dutch ecm ens (which include cloud cover and wind direction), the control looks bang on the operational. as ian posted earlier, that ecm op fits well with exeter's current thoughts for the next ten days. we may now have the general solution to the 28th.  we can dream about the cold pools and that a lottery. we've won before so its not impossible.  

[cooling climate]

If we get that extra bit of amplification then the possibility of post ECM t216 charts

and a potent easterly may not be just a wild goose chase. A Greeny high was

never really on the table at the present time but I think we are in with a good

shout say 60/40 in favour of the easterly with the amplitude we get from the wave

2 activity.

[Frosty.]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

The control run underpins my comments above. Best set of ensembles to date.

 

Mattys comments about a slow sinker appear to have no foundation based on the ECM ensembles, also the MOGREPS was wrong on the last bitter easterly scenario- but soon caught up.

 

Expect positive updates from Ian  F soon.

 

S

God I hope your'e right steve, to have MOGREPS on board would be a major victory, it's a cold outlook from the models, even the gfs 12z was on the cold side throughout.

[Ian Brown]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

The control run underpins my comments above. Best set of ensembles to date.

 

Mattys comments about a slow sinker appear to have no foundation based on the ECM ensembles, also the MOGREPS was wrong on the last bitter easterly scenario- but soon caught up.

 

Expect positive updates from Ian  F soon.

 

S

 

I thought the MOGREPS was the model least willing to go with the failed easterly of Dec 2012, if we are talking about the same episode ?

[DAVID SNOW]

I thought the MOGREPS was the model least willing to go with the failed easterly of Dec 2012, if we are talking about the same episode ?

 

If I remember correctly MOGREPS was 50/50 regarding the failed easterly.

[SMU]

to be honest theres not enough info on it- I do recall posts from Ian on the MEGREPS on a time period where the ECM went for it- then they caught up- that's my recollections.

 

Models are ALWAYS to premature with moving a scandi high to the SW - especially a solid one that extends through all the layers- not just a surface high.S