Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Jonan92]

ECm looks quite like this

 

[MR EXTREMES]

if I remember rightly steve murr is correct that was a massive fail back in dec 2012 it just goes to show how complicated these situations are I also remember many scandi heights really sticking it out against everything that's thrown at it.

and this scandi high if it sets up shop could well be just as stubbon.

 

like steve said couple more days and we will see whether the ecm has the xfactor or the sfactor lol

[radiohead]

18Z GFS starting to roll out. Will there be any surprises in store with the pub run? Eyes down...

[SMU]

GFS out to 48 big step towards the ECM ( finally) - big neg tilt on the low

 

S

[johnholmes]

Summary of the latest 500mb charts today is:-

All 3 to a greater or lesser extent show indications of both ridging and +ve heights being NW of the UK, GFS a bit less than the other two, all 3 show signs of actual ridging at the 6-10 day time frame and this is continued at a lesser degree in the NOAA 8-14 day outlook.

So the overall deduction from that is, the v very slight hints 2 days ago of a possible Atlantic flow developing do look, on the basis of the last 2 days charts, to have been deleted. The probability is very much this evening on a ridge, upper and surface NW of the UK. The precise low level flow is something one cannot really suggest this far out based on the 500mb anomaly charts. Certainly not a mild flow and dependent on how much the area east of the UK cools or does not cool in the next 10 days how cold. Unlikely to be an unstable type flow in the bottom few thousand feet I would suggest. However as always with this prediction of mainly upper air then the surface flow will be more accurately assessed closer to the 10 day time by the later synoptic model outputs. It does look increasingly as we will enter the start of ‘real’ winter on the cold side. Maybe frost the main feature with some freezing fog which will tend to lower surface temperatures anyway especially if there are areas that persist well into the short days.

Links to the main anomaly charts are below. Not looked at NAEFS but the link is below and I would besurprised if it is much different at 240h from the others.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

the ECMWF-GFS is the 12z issue, simply click top left to show the 00z which is what this comment is based on

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?mode=0&code=0&ech=192&map=&runpara=

Edited November 18, 2013 by johnholmes

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wintry weather aside, this LP is looking quite vicious now..

 

[Timmytour]

While I watch the GFS 18z roll out, is anyone able to tell me how I get to view my two chosen charts side by side like they used to be instead of one underneath the other?

[nick sussex]

GFS out to 48 big step towards the ECM ( finally) - big neg tilt on the low

 

S

 

Amen to that! I was going grey waiting for the GFS to wake up! Steve any thoughts on the possible shortwave drama later on re the ECM 168hrs, high needs to be a bit further northwest IMO at that point for extra insurance.

[Matty M]

A little bit more cold plunge in to Ireland during Wednesday in this run perhaps some flurries possible Wednesday night.

[SMU]

Hi nick a very difficult one to model & one the models will get wrong especially the GFS-

 

where a small area of low pressure gets sucked south wards through a block with rapid pressure rise northwards on its tail-

 

It happens a lot on developing scandi high scenarios.

 

S

[radiohead]

Look at how the 18Z GFS handles Melissa at 72 hours, its further east and not getting absorbed like it was on the 12Z.

[Summer Sun]

While I watch the GFS 18z roll out, is anyone able to tell me how I get to view my two chosen charts side by side like they used to be instead of one underneath the other?

 

just keep adding the pics only click the image button you should find they'll be side by side when you click preview post

 

another way it to add one pic then left click half way down the pic on the high right hand side you should see a flashing courser thing just click the image tag and add your pic again when you click preview post they should all be side by side

Edited November 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Timmytour]

just keep adding the pics only click the image button you should find they'll be side by side when you click preview post

Sorry Gav...I was referring to actually viewing the GFS run as opposed to posting

[Summer Sun]

Sorry Gav...I was referring to actually viewing the GFS run as opposed to posting

 

ah sorry select your charts then click previous run on the right hand side

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowman.]

Much better from the 18z, looking a lot like the other models.

[MR EXTREMES]

looking at the gfs 18z you can see why theres so much chaos low pressure systems all over the place south north east and west with just a blob of high pressure under attack constantly this must be part of the reason why ukmo are feeling the need to disregard any kind of deeper cold spell.

 

that's why the ukmo model is good model but of coarse still prone to errors by god I hope this is all resolved soon im eating Prozac like smarties lol

[Barry12]

Doesn't look like it's move towards the ECM to me

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by Barry95

[Catacol]

 also the MOGREPS was wrong on the last bitter easterly scenario- but soon caught up.

 

Expect positive updates from Ian  F soon.

 

S

 

Never mind the last bitter easterly - on Nov 1 this was the met office 16-30 dayer:  

 

"UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Nov 2013 to Saturday 30 Nov 2013:

Early November's mostly unsettled conditions across northern and western regions are thought likely to persist through much of the rest of the month. As such, rainfall amounts here are more likely than not to be above average and it may also be windy at times."

 

Miles off the mark. This is an atlantic dominated forecast and instead we have a decent strength block in situ. Having just looked at some recent verification stats over in the In Depth thread it seems to me that models are actually getting less reliable in recent years in picking up trends, not better. With that in mind - and with my own observations of the meridional pattern so far this winter - I am not inclined to be in the least bit taken with Mogreps or any other model. I think it is time for some decent human interpretation of what is going on rather than slavish loyalty to an algorithm.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[MR EXTREMES]

looking like building but not able to move very far except the uk so far.

[Snowman.]

SHORTWAVE! 

[Barry12]

GFS vs ECM at 120

 

 

Completely different...

[Wilxy]

Much less energy coming out of Canada so far in shorter term, just something iv noticed.

[Frosty.]

Are we better placed for prolonged cold outlook than 24 hours ago.....on balance I think we are, especially following JH's post with the very good news re the 500mb anomaly charts and the continued potential from the Ecm..our current position has indeed strengthened in favour of a cold blocked outlook for our part of the world..hoping the news on mogreps is better soon.. Mild weather stay away :-)

[Mark Neal.]

Not more shortwave drama. The GFS is as Steve said earlier slowly smelling the coffee, still a way from anything like the ECM with later output, be interesting to see next few runs and what mogreos is showing from Ian F. Interesting times. It's going to stay cold regardless but can we pull in very cold air to the east as we enter winterproper. Got to be in it to win it I suppose!

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs looks like its a Beatles fan, la la on the Mystery tour! I can't decide whether I like this new upstream pattern ,certainly less pressure on the high initially and lets see what that amplified wave does upstream, could be interesting.