South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 19/11/13

[JennyJane1]

I'm going to make you feel suicidal.

 

My little wood-burning stove in our bedroom is burning away and making it as warm as toast. If we damp it down it'll burn all night and it's the best idea I had when we rebuilt our house. It used to be in the annex, but I lived in an old Edwardian house as a kid with coal fires in every bedroom and always longed to go to sleep watching the flames flickering on the wall - very relaxing - so I got the builders to put it in the 'winter bedroom' as we call it.

 

Soooo cosy.

Don't care.We had hot malt and milk drinks.So there.

[Tom Jarvis]

just checked the meto forecast tonight and it shows heavy snow for 6 in the morning which then changes to rain

[WillinGlossop]

My first winter up norf since 1998 having moved from faversham in may.....good luck to tilly in the snow stakes..... Hoping for something up here in the next 24 hrs.....had snow shower last night so woke to white hills and above a valley thick with fog..... Pretty autumnal scene.... Good luck to all this winter.....

[blackprince]

My first winter up norf since 1998 having moved from faversham in may.....good luck to tilly in the snow stakes..... Hoping for something up here in the next 24 hrs.....had snow shower last night so woke to white hills and above a valley thick with fog..... Pretty autumnal scene.... Good luck to all this winter.....

Hope your move up there was good.  I suppose you had to change Kent to Glossop

[WillinGlossop]

Erm yup (hehe )... Hehe....best summer up here.... Hit 28-30c a few times....my garden is a suntrap in summer....so warm.... But looking forward to winter and snow now..... Have woodburner and previous owner left a years worth of logs to burn....looking forward to putting up photos on here.... Ps snow in march my local, ie 100m from me ( the beehive glossop) was in daily mail ( when i searched last march snowfall....) etc could this winter be as snowy here? Heres hoping....

Edited November 19, 2013 by WillinGlossop

[john pike]

right heres the fax charts for 6pm tomorrow

 

low pressure to our north east at that time

 

generating a north west to north east flow

 

could get quite gusty tomorrow afternoon

 

note the hook from the south crossing over london

 

that would produce some heavy precipitation and likely to be wintry

 

500 uppers at that time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

overall this shows where heavier precipitation gets going snow looks likely

 

evaporative cooling will be in effect

 

however in lighter rain areas it will likely be rain or sleet

 

 

thursday night

 

 

still the risk keeps going but lighter precipitation would likely be rain

 

although wintry showers still cannot be ruled out

 

 

basically watch the radar and lamp-post time

[Snow Queen one]

I have had my wood burner going since last weds.  Not put the heating on since then wood burner heats whole house.  Free wood from the garden as well down side i am running out of trees to chop down lol.

 

Have small coppice in garden so will start on that for next year.

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

 

 

temps

 

ecm main run right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

( you cannot make this stuff up)

 

24th-25th fi as spread is still large there

 

the 27th we have a spread of 14 degrees

 

 

wind

 

nothing of note

 

 

rainfall

 

looks pretty dry

 

except the 26th but that is an outlier at present

Edited November 20, 2013 by john pike

[Sussex Jules]

Hi John thanks for that. Wasn't that rainfall showing as an outlier last night as well? Do I need to start on my ark?!

[Iceni]

Got a woodburner being installed in the morning.....make sure you have a carbon monoxide alarm put in (law now for new install's) in case something goes wrong like blocked flue etc...

 

That's all sorted as it shares the same chimney as the Aga below it in the kitchen, so they both get a once over every year. Another good thing about having a house built 10 years ago.

 

I hope you've got the steel liner for the chimney. Our farmer neighbour's chief fire officer and says since people have been installing wood-burners they've had double the call outs as super-heated gasses escape through the brickwork and just need a spark to start a loft fire — very dangerous. You don't get the same sort of heat with an ordinary open fire. But I'm sure you've done your homework.

 

We've had a couple of massive branches blown down in the gale the other week, plus a big multi-trunk maple which has to come down as soon as its leaves are off. But they've all got to season for a year so we'll need another load of logs for this winter. Winters 2014/15/16 will be almost free as the Aga heats downstairs and we'll have enough wood — but we'll need to pay our mate to chop them up or hire a log chipper.

Edited November 19, 2013 by Iceni

[Tilly]

My first winter up norf since 1998 having moved from faversham in may.....good luck to tilly in the snow stakes..... Hoping for something up here in the next 24 hrs.....had snow shower last night so woke to white hills and above a valley thick with fog..... Pretty autumnal scene.... Good luck to all this winter.....

Thanks will! I'm sad you've moved. I no longer have my snow lookout, which means I'm going to have to lamp post watch 24/7. I used to be able to log on here and you'd have given the latest Fav snow updates and I didn't even have to look out the window! I hope you get loads of snow in Glossop this winter On topic - bloomin freezing tonight! I totally underestimated how cold it was earlier too and my fingers nearly fell off. It's definitely gloves and scarf time!

[WillinGlossop]

Thanks will! I'm sad you've moved. I no longer have my snow lookout, which means I'm going to have to lamp post watch 24/7. I used to be able to log on here and you'd have given the latest Fav snow updates and I didn't even have to look out the window! I hope you get loads of snow in Glossop this winter On topic - bloomin freezing tonight! I totally underestimated how cold it was earlier too and my fingers nearly fell off. It's definitely gloves and scarf time!

Hya hoping you get loads of snow too....probably will as everytime i move from somewhere they always get snow( or i go on holiday....) hoping for a snowy winter for all.... Ps the carport light used to be prettymuch on the wholetime.... Hopefully its stillbroken so you have a continuous lampost to keep an eye on!

[john pike]

Hi John thanks for that. Wasn't that rainfall showing as an outlier last night as well? Do I need to start on my ark?!

 

hi sussex

 

nope your be fine

 

with high pressure at that time likely i reckon rain looks pretty unlikely

 

i think a scraper may be more useful

[alexisj9]

ecm ensembles

 

 

 

temps

 

ecm main run right at the warm end of the ensembles

 

( you cannot make this stuff up)

 

14th-25th fi as spread is still large there

 

the 27th we have a spread of 14 degrees

 

 

wind

 

nothing of note

 

 

rainfall

 

looks pretty dry

 

except the 26th but that is an outlier at present

I'm rather fussy lol, to me the 21st looks like fl. OK it's only a 4 degree spread but it's the main models that are top and bottom. It just doesn't look right.

[john pike]

hi alexis

 

i have spotted it but to call fi on thursday seemed too close

 

however i agree a 4 degree spread when its cold is a fair difference

 

heres a ramp

 

 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

and the control run at the end looks a little lively

 

 

 

 

 

nice

[Iceni]

hi alexis

 

i have spotted it but to call fi on thursday seemed too close

 

however i agree a 4 degree spread when its cold is a fair difference

 

heres a ramp

 

 

 

 

 

 

What's the 4th going to be like? That is the evening I'm taking my dad to the film première of 'The Railway Man' as he's a veteran FEPOW on the Burma-Siam Railway - he was 95 on Saturday. We're going to a special reception first and meet Nicole Kidman and Colin Firth (or Dad will - I'll be too shy).

 

Lucky I've got my fake fur evening jacket or I might have to do an undignified sprint up the red carpet and give Dad a piggy back.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Iceni

[john pike]

 

 

after the 24th

 

take your pick

[john pike]

hi iceni

 

give me a shout about 5 or 6 days before

 

i will do my best to  work it out for you

 

at present i havent got a clue and nor does anyone else

[Iceni]

hi iceni

 

give me a shout about 5 or 6 days before

 

i will do my best to  work it out for you

 

at present i havent got a clue and nor does anyone else

 

 

Cheers John that's really kind of you. As you can imagine, it's a very big deal. The producer has been so kind to us and I know it's going to be really authentic and a great film - definitely Oscar City. It's on general release in the New Year, so go and see it.

 

It's not so much about the Railway, but about how the poor men who survived came to terms with life and their nightmares afterwards (it would be called PTSD today, but then they just had to get on with it - nobody cared). I know some days Dad would just curl up in bed at weekends with terrible depressions and he wasn't the depressive type before the war.

 

Dad will be ok as he has his vests, a DJ and a nice black overcoat.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Iceni

[john pike]

one more ramp from me tonight

 

 

 

 

only the 27th on this above

 

i think there are some issues with the charts not being able to predict past 120 at present

 

be nice if the above was right

 

melissa still being a pain at present

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/222552.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

 

 

[john pike]

hi iceni

 

i hope its a great day for you and your dad

 

if you can remind me please mate that would be great

 

thankyou

[Sussex Jules]

John can I have number 4,12 and 20 thank you

[alexisj9]

one more ramp from me tonight

 

 

 

 

only the 27th on this above

 

i think there are some issues with the charts not being able to predict past 120 at present

 

be nice if the above was right

 

melissa still being a pain at present

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/222552.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

 

 

Wow Melissa is completely different to yesterday.

Edited November 20, 2013 by alexisj9

[john pike]

hi jules

 

no problem

 

 

hi alexis

 

if that can take a sharper turn to the north west

 

we may see high pressure pulled to the west of us

 

as you said before the charts cannot cope with this at present

 

 

anyway lets see what tomorrow brings

 

i am going to bed now

 

from a cold croydon

 

goodnight all