scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->

[BurntFishTrousers]

Thought you would turn up!  (like a moth to a flame)......Good to have you on board as it looks rough!

Oh yeah! The North Atlantic monsters are starting to show again and here I am all tooled up with a new batch of links for the winter ahead.

 

Looks to me like it'll drop 40mb in a 24 hour period. Anyone for a spot of bombogenisis?

[lorenzo]

HC, just raided an old folder full of Bawbaggery... very similar..

 

 

 

 

And, in all it's trampoline glory..

 

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by lorenzo

[cscrim]

Welcome back BFT

[spindrift1980]

Bawbag didn't seem all that bad compared to the New Year storm which came a bit later (IMBY, at least).

[NorthernRab]

Here's a dumb question... why is it that the strongest winds in these set ups in the last few years always hit central belt? The gust chart that Lorenzo's posted just above has quite a familiar look.

 

It's worth noting however, HC, that some of the strongest gusts are currently predicted to be in the north, the central Highland area around Inverness towards Loch Glascarnoch could see gusts approach 80mph, with winds gusting to over 90mph in the isles of the same latitude (N.Uist, Benbecula, Harris etc). 

[BleakMidwinter]

The ole passion killers and string vests will be outed all over scotland by Friday i think

Speak for yourself! I've my cashmere simmet - some of us have standards to keep up, dontchaknow?!

[SW Saltire]

What kind of gusts did we see with 'hurricane bawbag'? as we might not be that far away, at the present rate of upgrades every single model run. Down to at least 972 mb but with current trends the actual storm could be at least sub 970. 

EDIT: after seeing Lorenzo's post it wouod appear we will not reach 957mb but it won't be too far away and it isn't all about the central pressure which determines the wind speed... is it?

Edited December 3, 2013 by SW Saltire

[Hairy Celt]

It's worth noting however, HC, that some of the strongest gusts are currently predicted to be in the north, the central Highland area around Inverness towards Loch Glascarnoch could see gusts approach 80mph, with winds gusting to over 90mph in the isles of the same latitude (N.Uist, Benbecula, Harris etc). 

 

Looks like an early night tonight to get ahead on the zeds - could be a right noisy one tomorrow night, really quite gusty.  A blizzard on the beach Thursday morning...

[sn0wman]

What kind of gusts did we see with 'hurricane bawbag'? as we might not be that far away, at the present rate of upgrades every single model run. Down to at least 972 mb but with current trends the actual storm could be at least sub 970. 

EDIT: after seeing Lorenzo's post it wouod appear we will not reach 957mb but it won't be too far away and it isn't all about the central pressure which determines the wind speed... is it?

See this link for the maximum gusts recorded during Hurricane Bawbag - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/2011_decwind 

I remember on the day thinking that the gusts weren't as severe as I had expected, seemed to really get going in the morning and then die down by the afternoon (when it was meant to be at its strongest!). The central pressure doesn't determine the wind speed (although it does give a good indication), it's really how close together the isobars are around the storm. With this area of low pressure on Thursday, the isobars are really packed together due to the steep gradient between it and the strong area of high pressure centred just west of Ireland. 

 

So to sum this up:

 

Hurricane Bawbag = Lower central pressure, but not as much of a difference between the areas of low and high pressure. 

Storm on Thursday = Higher central pressure, but a large difference (gradient) in pressure.

 

Personally, I'm thinking the wind gusts on Thursday could be as severe / more severe due to this, but not as severe as the January 3rd 2013 storm.

Edited December 3, 2013 by sn0wman

[Highland Snow]

Started raining here and heavily at 18.00 and currently have 4.0mm (23.45mm/hr at 18.33). the temperature has fallen from 9.7C to 7.9C in that period also (-1.8C/hr).

 

I think a change is happening!

[NorthernRab]

Started raining here and heavily at 18.00 and currently have 4.0mm (23.45mm/hr at 18.33). the temperature has fallen from 9.7C to 7.9C in that period also (-1.8C/hr).

 

I think a change is happening!

 

The change has already taken place here, 1'C currently after struggling to get much above 3'C - light, very cold rain currently. 

 

Look at the temp map on http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ - Scotland wrapped in different layers of air, it's coming! 

[Highland Snow]

That must be the cold front passing southwards from those measurements.

[SW Saltire]

See this link for the maximum gusts recorded during Hurricane Bawbag - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/2011_decwind 

I remember on the day thinking that the gusts weren't as severe as I had expected, seemed to really get going in the morning and then die down by the afternoon (when it was meant to be at its strongest!). The central pressure doesn't determine the wind speed (although it does give a good indication), it's really how close together the isobars are around the storm. With this area of low pressure on Thursday, the isobars are really packed together due to the steep gradient between it and the strong area of high pressure centred just west of Ireland. 

 

So to sum this up:

 

Hurricane Bawbag = Lower central pressure, but not as much of a difference between the areas of low and high pressure. 

Storm on Thursday = Higher central pressure, but a large difference (gradient) in pressure.

 

Personally, I'm thinking the wind gusts on Thursday could be as severe / more severe due to this, but not as severe as the January 3rd 2013 storm.

So pretty tame then  

Thank you for your reasoning and it's exactly what i thought and yes i believe we will at least see widely 70-75 mph gusts with 90 in exposed places and the worst affected will be over 100 mph. The worry is that even 24 hours ago it was not forecast to be this strong so it seems to deepening more rapidly than expected.

[sn0wman]

So pretty tame then

Thank you for your reasoning and it's exactly what i thought and yes i believe we will at least see widely 70-75 mph gusts with 90 in exposed places and the worst affected will be over 100 mph. The worry is that even 24 hours ago it was not forecast to be this strong so it seems to deepening more rapidly than expected.

Exactly, the storm seems to have been upgraded on every run since yesterday. I wonder what the GFS 18Z will show. 

[Highland Snow]

The wind direction has also veered Northerly.

[lorenzo]

Expect to read...

 

Winter is Over.

 

It's spring time.

 

Mildest Winter Ever.

 

 

It's only one run... really is one Ugly looking slug of a Bartlett !

[A Winter's Tale]

Expect to read...

 

Winter is Over.

 

It's spring time.

 

Mildest Winter Ever.

 

ECH1-192.gifECH1-216.gif

 

It's only one run... really is one Ugly looking slug of a Bartlett !

You can't help but feel that this easterly being tracked in the MT is just imaginary - must be some terrible hallucination from 'That ECM' last year. For now, it looks like we're heading into a mild middle-third of December but the duration and just how mild it might get is up to grabs. I get the impression that this could be a case of no pain, no gain as there is a possibility that we might have to endure a milder period before the pattern evolves into something more favourable. Perhaps this could put us in a decent position for the latter part of December (quite a contrast to previous years) but there's a long to go until we can be sure about anything.

 

What seems to have bypassed the discussion in the MT is the severity of Thursday's event. I think in the next 24hrs we'll see more coverage in the media and enhanced warnings from the met about the wind. Hopefully there'll be greater clarity on the precipitation we'll see as the front moves south and whether there could be some snow accompanying the strong winds. As LS pointed earlier, a little front should edge eastwards late on Friday and there is the potential for snow, albeit pretty brief and light. 

[BleakMidwinter]

 

Looks to me like it'll drop 40mb in a 24 hour period. Anyone for a spot of bombogenisis?

Looking awfy likely to me...

Need to knit myself a bombshelter by thursday, I reckon...

[Highland Snow]

Expect to read...

 

Winter is Over.

 

It's spring time.

 

Mildest Winter Ever.

 

ECH1-192.gifECH1-216.gif

 

It's only one run... really is one Ugly looking slug of a Bartlett !

 

Any more like that Lorenzo and we will need a "NOT Like This" button!

Edited December 3, 2013 by Highland Snow

[SW Saltire]

 

You can't help but feel that this easterly being tracked in the MT is just imaginary - must be some terrible hallucination from 'That ECM' last year. For now, it looks like we're heading into a mild middle-third of December but the duration and just how mild it might get is up to grabs. I get the impression that this could be a case of no pain, no gain as there is a possibility that we might have to endure a milder period before the pattern evolves into something more favourable.

Well, it is supported by stratospheric charts, the MetO and i'd be shocked if the ECM ensembles don't show it as an outliner, the UKMO (although only to 144) and the GFS doesn't count. Obviously, it is imaginary as it is only on a computer screen at 10-15 day timeframes as opposed to howling against your windows. 

I do agree, that we will be going through a mild phase and it could be of longer than a week but in december that is not unusual. What is unusual is to not have that mildness supported by copious amounts of rain

[pdiddy]

Er, wish i wasn't flying from Edi on Thursday... 80mph gusts!

[pdiddy]

Expect to read...

 

Winter is Over.

 

It's spring time.

 

Mildest Winter Ever.

 

ECH1-192.gifECH1-216.gif

 

It's only one run... really is one Ugly looking slug of a Bartlett !

Like this a bit?

[101_North]

Chances of my flight back into EDI being disrupted on Thurs afternoon?

Be typical. It's my eldests 5th birthday and I promised I'd be back for a birthday tea. Wife was already raging I'd had to be away this week.

Fingers crossed!

[jon_d1983]

Expect to read...

 

Winter is Over.

 

It's spring time.

 

Mildest Winter Ever.

 

ECH1-192.gifECH1-216.gif

 

It's only one run... really is one Ugly looking slug of a Bartlett !

Sorry to sound daft but What is a Bartlett?

[lorenzo]

Like this a bit?

 

 

We can but dream..

 

Sorry to sound daft but What is a Bartlett?

 

A Bartlett High. Couple of links here explain all..

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67869-bartlett-set-up/   http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117