scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->

[Cheggers]

Evening all, sorry not posted in a few days, but still unpacking.... (New snooker table is great  ) I see Bawbag MKII is inbound. Great I have moved to a higher more exposed spot!!

 

I seem to recall Bawbag was a whole day of high gusts (was in hospital with missus expecting number 4 so missed most of it), but damage wise 2nd Jan 2012 was worse with higher gusts but in a short space of time (6 hours I think). Our whole street survived Bawbag, but only 3 survived the other without tile lose, car damage and IFT's (Identified Flying Trampolines).

 

Anyway, stay safe, and glad my flight south is next Thursday. 

[lorenzo]

Still as fierce on the latest run.

 

 

 

 

[jon_d1983]

We can but dream..  A Bartlett High. Couple of links here explain all.. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67869-bartlett-set-up/   http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117

Cheers Lorenzo :-) That clears up the Bartlett

[pdiddy]

Evening all, sorry not posted in a few days, but still unpacking.... (New snooker table is great  ) I see Bawbag MKII is inbound. Great I have moved to a higher more exposed spot!!

 

I seem to recall Bawbag was a whole day of high gusts (was in hospital with missus expecting number 4 so missed most of it), but damage wise 2nd Jan 2012 was worse with higher gusts but in a short space of time (6 hours I think). Our whole street survived Bawbag, but only 3 survived the other without tile lose, car damage and IFT's (Identified Flying Trampolines).

 

Anyway, stay safe, and glad my flight south is next Thursday. 

It was interesting that the 2nd Jan went unnoticed, largely because it was a public holiday/schools off, whereas Bawbag got all the media attention. 2nd was worse for damage in Edinburgh certainly.

[BleakMidwinter]

It was interesting that the 2nd Jan went unnoticed, largely because it was a public holiday/schools off, whereas Bawbag got all the media attention. 2nd was worse for damage in Edinburgh certainly.

Is this where I mention the 102mph gust that ripped the skylight out our roof? I'm sure I've never ever mentioned it before now, so it will be news to msot of you...2nd Jan 2012 was one helluva day round Surburban Embra Sth. Trees down all round - big hole in our roof - chimneypots along the pavements and big dings in parked cars - walls down… not a tenement round here didn't need a cherrypicker making-safe summat up top. just thought I'd mention it, 'cause of having been so reticent up til now about it…

[Northernlights]

Rained all day heavily and temperature fell from 10c early am to 2.c currently with sleet on the car windscreen  at 4.00pm. Currently dry with a starry sky.

[A Winter's Tale]

Some interesting differences between 12Z and 18Z GFS. Lunchtime Thursday windy on both runs but 18z has the strongest winds a little further east. GFS 18z has more of an atlantic influence on Friday:

 

18z

 

12z

 

As a result there is a chance for snow in some western parts for a time on Friday.

 

18z

 

 

12z

[snowy owl]

Been dull today, raining by 7.30pm. Not at all looking forward to Thurs (except for poss snow).

 

Must take a trip to Lidl though for a christmas pressie to myself a weather station!

Edited December 3, 2013 by snowy owl

[BurntFishTrousers]

As a keen cold water low pressure enthusiast since 2004 (I'm defo not a professional meto-person), I have been watching these types of storms pass our shores every winter. Some wind up to be real "beauties" to look at on satellite or radar and actually don't affect as badly as forecast. Others quickly develop and are more potent than thought.

 

Bawbag was a strong one, but there has been stronger with less media attention.

 

I'm still waiting to see how this incoming low will properly develop / interact / bomb; that will be key to who gets "hit" or not.

[A Winter's Tale]

I would imagine the met office will upgrade the warnings sometime tomorrow. But I think we should have seen an amber warning by now given the consistency and intensity of the low on today's models. If more southern parts of the UK were in for such a rush-hour then without doubt the met office would've issued a red warning.

 

Anyone else who thinks this storm could be worthy of a red warning?

Edited December 3, 2013 by A Winter's Tale

[Matty M]

As a keen cold water low pressure enthusiast since 2004 (I'm defo not a professional meto-person), I have been watching these types of storms pass our shores every winter. Some wind up to be real "beauties" to look at on satellite or radar and actually don't affect as badly as forecast. Others quickly develop and are more potent than thought.

 

Bawbag was a strong one, but there has been stronger with less media attention.

 

I'm still waiting to see how this incoming low will properly develop / interact / bomb; that will be key to who gets "hit" or not.

I agree i think this system won't look as pretty as some recent systems but i have a feeling it will pack a serious blow with that extremely tight gradient to its south.

[edo]

Been dull today, raining by 7.30pm. Not at all looking forward to Thurs (except for poss snow).

 

Must take a trip to Lidl though for a christmas pressie to myself a weather station!

 

I am very impressed with it for the price..... very easy to set up and comparing to nearby weather stations readings seem to be very accurate....

 

only cons are there is a beep loud enough to wake 4 children everytime you touch a button and cant seem to switch it off....and the screen is great when you press the light button but it is hard to read from any distance despite the read outs being large when light is not on.....this could however simply be my colour blindness as i have difficulty seeing when certain colours are placed together!! I also hate the fact I can not find out my temp in the garden when at work as only 24hrs in too using it i now feel the need to have constant access to my data so should have went wireless lol

 

seriously though for £39 its top value

 

current temp 2.4 c and dewpoint 2.3c and dropping steadily last hour

 

 

a skylight you say BM must have missed that story

Edited December 3, 2013 by edodfc

[edo]

As a keen cold water low pressure enthusiast since 2004 (I'm defo not a professional meto-person), I have been watching these types of storms pass our shores every winter. Some wind up to be real "beauties" to look at on satellite or radar and actually don't affect as badly as forecast. Others quickly develop and are more potent than thought.

 

Bawbag was a strong one, but there has been stronger with less media attention.

 

I'm still waiting to see how this incoming low will properly develop / interact / bomb; that will be key to who gets "hit" or not.

 

looking forward to the satellite images you will  post and save us the bother of looking for them

[SW Saltire]

 

Still as fierce on the latest run.

I got a shock when i saw that is in knots!!! so times the figure by 1.15 so that blob of grey just below stirling suggesting 88 knots is actually 101mph? surely not.

I see the max on one of the graphs was 90 knots which is 103.5 mph!

Edited December 3, 2013 by SW Saltire

[Hairy Celt]

Been out for a starlit walk this evening - very much a mood of the calm   before the storm.  The ground is absolutely sodden after today's downpour, which maybe won't be a help when it comes to holding snow on Thursday and Friday.  BMW, remind us about your roof again eh?  You might have to post several times though to make sure it doesn't get lost in the blizzard of posts over the next while...

Ed, does your new toy output by usb or anyhow?

[Zenarcher]

I experienced Hurricane Bawbag when I lived in the Western Isles at the time the average speed that day forecast was 72mph. At 11.30am it was at its worst, usually storms happen over night and you see nothing but this one peaked at midday. So at that time I heard one of the biggest gusts I've ever heard outside was was crazy the sea was just spray and the waves were going over the pier onto the roads. The sound of this in a house is also crazy up the stairs the roof constantly rattles and you can see the windows actually shaking and move about yes even double glazed windows do this.

 

I remember shortly after this it eased off quickly and by the evening you would think it was another day.

 

I got a shock when i saw that is in knots!!! so times the figure by 1.15 so that blob of grey just below stirling suggesting 88 knots is actually 101mph? surely not.

I see the max on one of the graphs was 90 knots which is 103.5 mph!

 

No you're reading it wrong its saying mean speeds around 60 to 70mph still very high though.

Edited December 3, 2013 by weathermaster

[SW Saltire]

I experienced Hurricane Bawbag when I lived in the Western Isles at the time the average speed that day forecast was 72mph. At 11.30am it was at its worst, usually storms happen over night and you see nothing but this one peaked at midday. So at that time I heard one of the biggest gusts I've ever heard outside was was crazy the sea was just spray and the waves were going over the pier onto the roads. The sound of this in a house is also crazy up the stairs the roof constantly rattles and you can see the windows actually shaking and move about yes even double glazed windows do this.

 

I remember shortly after this it eased off quickly and by the evening you would think it was another day.

 

 

No you're reading it wrong its saying mean speeds around 60 to 70mph still very high though.

yes, sorry the last two images are for higher up i think and are different to the first 4

[Ravelin]

I would imagine the met office will upgrade the warnings sometime tomorrow. But I think we should have seen an amber warning by now given the consistency and intensity of the low on today's models. If more southern parts of the UK were in for such a rush-hour then without doubt the met office would've issued a red warning.

 

Anyone else who thinks this storm could be worthy of a red warning?

 

I'll be surprised if we don't see an Amber warning appear tomorrow for at least some areas. As for a Red, I very much doubt it as we are supposed to be more used to this sort of thing. 

[edo]

Been out for a starlit walk this evening - very much a mood of the calm   before the storm.  The ground is absolutely sodden after today's downpour, which maybe won't be a help when it comes to holding snow on Thursday and Friday.  BMW, remind us about your roof again eh?  You might have to post several times though to make sure it doesn't get lost in the blizzard of posts over the next while...

Ed, does your new toy output by usb or anyhow?

 

It does not but to be fair for the price cant complain....it does store data though internally..... quite worrying 24hrs in im pining for a deluxe model though... guess thats good though gives me something to aspire too when I dont have crippling childcare bills in about 6 years...

[edo]

red warning for bawbag caused panic in my work with everbody freaking out....it was fairly undramatic for our area and I find the whole warning system rather confusing and ineffective these days

[edo]

hmmmm bad point re the weather station..... it would appear it does not show minus dew points just reads LL.L when goes below zero...... now what is the point in that

 

cant believe never noticed that...wonder if i unscrew it all they will take it back!!

Edited December 4, 2013 by edodfc

[asjmcguire]

Well - Thursday is definitely looking a bit worrying now!

The latest NMM for me is attached.

 

This is smack bang in rush hour - and this is the South East Scottish Borders - quite a fair bit south of the Central Belt.

Looking slightly further west towards Hawick, the max gust is more like 78mph.

 

I've issued a warning on Facebook, Twitter, G+ and have pointed out that those who have to travel as well as being aware of the possibilities of trees / wheelie bins on / in roads - should also pay great attention to where they park their car - for they could make it to work safely but then come home time discover a tree resting on their car.

 

Annoyingly we have to be at the Western General for 11am so we have no choice but to travel - I really wish we weren't though.

Stay safe people!

[asjmcguire]

And for those thinking of investing in a weather station that CAN connect to a computer - this is the one we use at BordersWeather: http://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/technoline-ws2350-weather-station - it's £110 yes, quite a bit more than what you are paying at Lidl but it's accurate and reliable, runs both wired and wireless depending on how you set it up and has a better resolution and accuracy than the much more expensive Oregon WMR928NX that it replaced.

[Highland Snow]

And for those thinking of investing in a weather station that CAN connect to a computer - this is the one we use at BordersWeather: http://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/technoline-ws2350-weather-station - it's £110 yes, quite a bit more than what you are paying at Lidl but it's accurate and reliable, runs both wired and wireless depending on how you set it up and has a better resolution and accuracy than the much more expensive Oregon WMR928NX that it replaced.

 That's an excellent screensaver Andrew. How do I display my weather data from Weather Display?

[blitzen]

Have copied Scotland's part of Jo's forecast:

Looking at the northern half of the UK:Thursday sees an active cold front moving down through Scotland in the small hours bringing sharp bursts of heavy rain as it sinks southwards, through central Scotland in the rush hour, awful wet windy journey to school for the Central Belt. Wet over southern Scotland, N.Ireland and northern England in the morning, for Wales and NW England into the afternoon before turning patchy as it clears the rest of England after dusk.That front opens the flood gates for the cold Arctic air, so as the rain clears, the temperatures fall. 7 or 8C for England by day, widespread frost overnight with ice into Friday. In that cold air on Thursday, snow showers begin to feed in. By lunchtime, Thursday there will be snow showers for NW Highlands, Nevis Range, Grampians and Cairngorm, the Northern Isles and Western Isles. The feed of snow showers will depend on the winds, veering from West to North. So some should feed over Argyll, Ayrshire, through the North Channel into Cumbria, Co. Antrim coast. Parts of NW England and north Wales could also see wintry showers (sleet, hail, snow), not amounting to much but still something. Through the evening and overnight there will be more snow, (blizzards) over the northern parts of Scotland. Highland, Moray and Aberdeenshire, Angus and the Islands could see 5 cm, more of course in the mountains.However, it is not just the snow, but also the winds. Thursday’s winds are the major source of concern. The winds will be picking up during Weds evening, by midnight, the storm will be arriving over the Western Isles, soon turning to severe gale force SW’ly through the Minch. The gales will spread over Scotland, into N.Ireland and northern England before dawn. Currently, it looks like there could be storm force winds for the West coast of Scotland around 6am, gusts over 80mph. severe westerly gales for the far North and N.Isles and the east coast of Scotland, gusts widely of 60mph so not looking great for ferry routes and the bridges. During the morning rush hour on Thursday, it looks like the worst of the winds and damaging gusts will sweep through the Central Belt of Scotland. The Westerly flow will just funnel through the lowlands. N.Ireland, southern Scotland, Cumbria and NE England getting the smash of these winds around 9/10am. In the lee of the Pennines, from these Westerly gales, NE England could see gusts of over 70mph. By lunchtime, the severe coastal gales and strongest gusts will be over Irish Sea, northern and eastern England with the worst heading out into North Sea. Even then, the strong NW winds continue and bring a significant wind chill with gales still a risk for eastern Britain, (severe gales of N.Isles), just without the violent gusts.So we’ve had ice, rain, frost, wind chill, snow showers, blizzards, gales, gusts potentially over 80mph in the forecast. The Environment Agency adds a forecast for coastal flooding along the east coast of Britain to all of that for Thursday as well. Thursday night into Friday sees sub-zero temperatures with a fresh NW wind. This means a penetrating frost, bitterly cold even if temperatures only say zero it will feel like -7C.Many parts will start off sunny but cold on Friday, especially in the wind. N.Ireland see lighter winds quickly as high pressure begins to build form the west, there maybe the odd wintry shower on the north coast but quieter and turning cloudy. The northern half of Scotland continues to see a feed of wintry showers, snow for the mountains and there will be a raw north wind for anyone along the North Sea coast until mid afternoon. Temperatures on Friday of 3C, barely above 0C in Scotland. 

 

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