Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[carinthian]

Evening All-

 

A disappointing few days model watching, what seemed so promising a week ago actually landed nothing more than a fleeting visit from old man Winter & Jack frost.

 

We did get the scandi heights, but not the Scandi High- which sadly for us is a different scenario for the UK, with mild SW winds on the western flanks.

 

Its going to be a while before we see any cold into the UK...

 

S

Looks like much of Euroland locked under non event high pressure and eventually much of a presently very cold Scandinavia joining the Western Fringes of Europe in a sub tropic flow . Days waiting will seem eternal for those who love the cold and snow and I am one. Just seems a waste of short day light hours for a frozen scenario. Nothing we can do about it but wait in frustration.Just watched todays ski race in Lake Louise , Alberta, -26C  at mid -day ! 

C

[bluearmy]

A SSW by definition comes out of the blue, so trying to forecast one is a futile task, surely?It just highlights how uncertain future weather patterns are. At the moment the Christmas period is looking mild, but this time next week it could be looking bitterly cold. We don't know what is around the corner, we can only guess.

 

not out of the blue. the gfs strat is visible on instant weather maps and ecm to day 10 on 'berlin'.  last winter's event was visible a good fortnight before it occured as gfs modelled it very well indeed. of course we werent sure it was going to lead to a ssw two weeks out but as it came closer into view, it was pretty clear what was going to happen.  (stewart did predict a ssw last jan so it clearly isnt unforecastable). 

[March Blizzard]

not out of the blue. the gfs strat is visible on instant weather maps and ecm to day 10 on 'berlin'.  last winter's event was visible a good fortnight before it occured as gfs modelled it very well indeed. of course we werent sure it was going to lead to a ssw two weeks out but as it came closer into view, it was pretty clear what was going to happen.  (stewart did predict a ssw last jan so it clearly isnt unforecastable).

Do we distinguish between a "standard" Srat warming and a "sudden" variety? Or are they one and the same? If so, where does the "sudden" moniker come from?Sorry for the newbieness of the questions. I'm kinda model illiterate...

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

A SSW by definition comes out of the blue, so trying to forecast one is a futile task, surely?It just highlights how uncertain future weather patterns are. At the moment the Christmas period is looking mild, but this time next week it could be looking bitterly cold. We don't know what is around the corner, we can only guess.

 

I think sudden means quick/rapid in its change, rather than 'unpredictable'

 

nonetheless your point that we cannot be confident of anything 10days-  2 wks down the line is entirely valid. Anyone writing off winter at this stage needs their head examining!

[March Blizzard]

Thanks for the clarification, guys!

[IDO]

cc, you were confident of a cold winter a few weeks back when the strat also looked unhelpful. why have you changed your mind? (ironically just as we get the first consistent whiffs of something high up).

HiI know the strat has been showing some warming in the last four GFS runs but with the PV still cooling wouldn't this negate that minor warming? Would we not need a significant warming event? Giving its current cooling status, by having a small warming would this not make the major part of the PV more intense (getting colder but in a more confined area), and in fact, conversely be less beneficial for the UK, especially if it parks itself in Greenland?Sorry only a learner here so if my logic is askew please say so.Thanks

[Matty M]

Took a few days off in the hope to come back to something more promising but the outlook is as desperate as ever.

 

Look well odds on now for a mild non snowy Christmas, but still just at a distance where we could see something different but we would need to start seeing signs in FI.

 

There does appear to the risk of some extremely deep depressions approaching to the west in the coming period but appear at the moment to be just far enough west to not be of much concern.

 

Otherwise a pretty dull & boring outlook.

[Iceni]

Looks like much of Euroland locked under non event high pressure and eventually much of a presently very cold Scandinavia joining the Western Fringes of Europe in a sub tropic flow . Days waiting will seem eternal for those who love the cold and snow and I am one. Just seems a waste of short day light hours for a frozen scenario. Nothing we can do about it but wait in frustration.Just watched todays ski race in Lake Louise , Alberta, -26C  at mid -day ! 

C

 

I seem to recall the models always default to zonal dross or (rarely) go to the other extreme Day After Tomorrow at weekends. Yes I know that they just keep doing what they're doing and don't have 2 days off, but it's happened so often over the years I've looked on here, especially after a week of pretty good stuff, that I'm sure there's something in what I'm saying. No doubt, someone more informed than me will probably be along to say I'm talking rubbish.

 

My future home (if I can persuade my husband about the snow thing - we'd get lovely hot summers to make up for it) is here...

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/162.jpg

 

11:00am and –15.5ºC

Edited December 8, 2013 by Iceni

[bluearmy]

HiI know the strat has been showing some warming in the last four GFS runs but with the PV still cooling wouldn't this negate that minor warming? Would we not need a significant warming event? Giving its current cooling status, by having a small warming would this not make the major part of the PV more intense (getting colder but in a more confined area), and in fact, conversely be less beneficial for the UK, especially if it parks itself in Greenland?Sorry only a learner here so if my logic is askew please say so.Thanks

 

warmings will do some damage to the vortex. it could be forced towards greenland, but without any warmings high up, it will just expand to cover the arctic anyway and likely meander towards greenland.  incidentally, looking back to last december, the warming at 10hpa was massive as temps were modelled a fortnight out to reach zero and above.  the current warmings are indeed minor in comparison (for the time being)

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 8th 2013.

 

All models show a mild and moist Westerly flow backing more Southerly over the next few days with mild and cloudy conditions across the North and West with occasional rain in the NW and a fresh breeze. Over the South and East a backing wind will bring slightly colder and drier air off France and this will allow things to become a little less mild especially at night when there will be some mist and fog patches in light winds, which may as a result be slow to clear in the daytime. Late in the week stronger winds should blow the fog away and maintain milder weather for most areas with some rain edging deeper into Western and Northern Britain by the weekend.

 

GFS then shows slightly more changeable conditions in the extended part of it's run with troughs pushing East across the UK briefly with some rain for all before drier air returns from the West with temperatures closer to the seasonal normal by the end of the run.

 

UKMO tonight show no changes next weekend with a SW flow over all areas. The flow will strengthen markedly over the NW as a deep Low swings North to the West of Scotland bringing rain and strong winds for a time. In the South and East the weather will stay dry and potentially brighter with less in the way of fog by then as winds are shown to have swung more to the SW with mild air for most.

 

GEM shows absolutely no change in pattern throughout the entire run so that in 10 days time we are still looking at an extended period of mild SW winds with a little rain in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see fine weather continuing with some brightness at times and temperatures remaining on the mild side of average for all.

 

NAVGEM shows a rather stronger SW flow across Britain with a weak trough having carried a little rain East towards the end of the week though wholescale changes at the end of the run look a long way away still. So it would mean mostly rather cloudy and mild weather with any rain most likely towards the NW.

 

ECM tonight shows a trough approaching the West in a week's time with stronger but mild winds ahead of a spell of rain for all before things cool down somewhat as we enter the new week as winds switch NW briefly.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of mild uppers for the next week before they slowly decline to more average levels but with winds in the West any cold weather looks highly unlikely. Rainfall will be little if any in the South until late in the run with no excessive amounts anywhere.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained to the NW of the UK moving in a NE direction before it slips a little further South over the UK later but still flowing in a NE direction maintaining mild and strong SW winds across the UK.

 

In Summary tonight there remains no change in any output tonight in the continuation of generally mild and settled conditions across the South and East and rain at times in the North and West, all in association with a pattern of High pressure to the SE and Low pressure over the Atlantic and a SW flow over the UK. There are just mere hints that things might turn a little more unsettled and more breezy for some other areas for a time in Week 2 but it looks unlikely that would lead to a pattern change any time soon after.

[Gael_Force]

not out of the blue. the gfs strat is visible on instant weather maps and ecm to day 10 on 'berlin'.  last winter's event was visible a good fortnight before it occured as gfs modelled it very well indeed. of course we werent sure it was going to lead to a ssw two weeks out but as it came closer into view, it was pretty clear what was going to happen.  (stewart did predict a ssw last jan so it clearly isnt unforecastable). 

 

Do you remember the long range CFS chart that Recretos posted weeks ago - warming for around 16th December if I remember correctly. All the charts have different viewpoints so not sure if the locations match.

[syed2878]

evening. Well another day and another set of uninspiring set of outputs its not looking good for us cold fans. These setups can last for a wile how ever it's the weather and it can make an ass out of us. Oh ian these forecasters from u.s they r not a mild version of james madden r they? And please give us the links to those forecasts please? Thanks.

[mountain shadow]

Took a few days off in the hope to come back to something more promising but the outlook is as desperate as ever. Look well odds on now for a mild non snowy Christmas, but still just at a distance where we could see something different but we would need to start seeing signs in FI. There does appear to the risk of some extremely deep depressions approaching to the west in the coming period but appear at the moment to be just far enough west to not be of much concern. Otherwise a pretty dull & boring outlook.

Matty,Have a look on the historic charts for this day in 2004 and then look at Christmas Day. Can't write a White Christmas off just yet.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm ECM ens, what to say, the polar vortex has us on the brink but never finishes the job and brings in a zonal west/south westerly flow. We are always under the influence of heights to the south east with rainfall limited. The fact that the ensembles are sticking with this up to day 10 maybe suggests that maybe the Atlantic might not break through and perhaps we could salvage a cooler pattern, even if its more of a Rex block compared to a Eurotrash high.

[Catacol]

Not much to add to the discussion today. Strat signals are muted, though the signal for attempted mid atlantic height rises as Xmas week approaches is still there today suggesting NW rather SW flow by that stage. Cant see much else that might shake up the pattern at the moment. There may be a trough that runs over the Tibetan plateau at T180 as you can see here on ECM

 

 

also forecast to a lesser extent on GFS

 

 

 

Can this bring about a torque event and increase in AAM that might help shift the pattern?  I have to confess to being a complete novice in understanding the impact of such events and what the perfect setup is. However it is a straw to clutch at this stage and the literature I have suggests a time lag of about 20 days to impact the circulation pattern. That would take us to Jan 6.

[stewfox]

At this point I would say that if the strat charts are looking the same inanother 3 weeks then you virtually right off January as well.It is of course very disappointing when a good number of posters lookforward to the winter season to see such poor synoptics that in alllikely hood will not improve for the rest of the month. Which will inaffect right off the first third of meteorological winter even though weare just a week into it.I know some posters will say how can you say that and where is the proofbut all I would say is the stratosphere forecasts says it and until thischanges then apart from 24 hour topplers at best that is all we can hopefor.

 

Thank god stratosphere forecasting is in its infancy, wouldn't it be boring to write of January before it started.

 

Surrpirsed there are not more accurate monthly CET forecasts.

[Gavin Hannah]

My assessment of the model output WRT to cold and snow prospects.

 

Onions.

 

The UK looks like being under the influence of SWerlie winds and a raging Jet stream.  See you all in the new year!

Edited December 8, 2013 by IBTHToThoseShortwaves

[J10]

I know its off topic but anyone with sky sports should take a look at the NFL game in Philadelphia,the sort of snow dreams are made of .And they're playing in it.[/quote

How can they play in that, it's insane, would be nice for xmas here

Fromey

 

Further off topic- but highlights of said game. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013120805/2013/REG14/lions@eagles#menu=highlights&tab=recap 9

 

(Worst conditions in opening quarters)

I think it's a long time before anywhere in mainland Europe sees conditions like that going by current charts.

Edited December 8, 2013 by J10

[Muffelchen]

I don't know about onions, I would say 'sausages' myself.

I know there are all sorts of 'hints and allegations' in deepest FI but, once - make that twice - bitten, this winter, I will take these with a pinch of salt. Always jam tomorrow it seems at the moment....

In relation to our current weather and whether the low heights to the NW and the higher heights (is this grammatical?) to the SE amount to a Bartlett, I would say that, if it looks like a Bartlett and feels like a Bartlett, it probably is a Bartlett.

Sad but true I'm afraid.

This does not mean that winter is a write-off cold-wise but you can safely write-off the next two weeks with a fair degree of certainty.

[bluearmy]

12z naefs raises chances of the mlb retrogression option from this mornings choices. Spreads late in week 2 show a possible height rise between iceland and greenland. Wayyyy too early to take that on board but the canadian vortex has shown some signs of heading back tward nw siberia or drifting nw so not competely ridiculous.

Anyway, the blocking drifting back into the atlantic would tie up with the vortex movement at a highish lattitude from w to e. All this goes to illustrate that just stating that we will see a bartlett for the next two to three weeks is just conjecture with no credible model support.

[bobbydog]

well...

 

the UKMO takes us out to 6 days.

 

6 days before the 'failed northerly', the sledges were dusted off and ready....

 

the ECM takes us to 10 days.

 

10 days ago, scandi highs and beasterlies were on the cards. now its mild bartletts?

 

the GFS takes us to 16 days out.

 

it never happens......

 

 

i certainly won't be writing off winter just 8 days in.

 

 

the last frame of the GFS is very significant though,

 

 

 

it's made me realise that i've only got about 2 weeks to do my christmas shopping!

[pip22]

Further off topic- but highlights of said game. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013120805/2013/REG14/lions@eagles#menu=highlights&tab=recap 9

 

(Worst conditions in opening quarters)

I think it's a long time before anywhere in mainland Europe sees conditions like that going by current charts.

It reminds me of ''Freezer Bowl''. According to the wiki The game was played in the coldest temperature in NFL history in terms of wind chill.

 

It was in 10th January 1982.

[lorenzo]

Thought I would have a quick look and see how the MJO was getting along.. and BOM evidently doesn't enjoy this set up either, it's gone to sleep, or maybe just can't be bothered plotting things in the circle of doom for another 20 days or so..

 

It's a strong euro high, a rather relentless ECM Ens run also way out to 360 shows very weak attempts at extension to Scandi, and even weaker attempts at retrogression. The control run here and the GFS / ECM heights. 

 

ECM spins up a monster low in the Pacific out at day 10, one to keep an eye on.

 

Looking at the AO, the GEFS with the most positive run of the season. ECM asking some questions after the 18th. So while there is no point in denying the current malaise from our limpet high. Still things to watch.

 

 

[cooling climate]

 

cc, you were confident of a cold winter a few weeks back when the strat also looked unhelpful. why have you changed your mind? (ironically just as we get the first consistent whiffs of something high up).

 I known they are only forcasts but from what I can see the strength of thevortex, cold in the stratosphere along with the zonal winds are all headingin the wrong direction.I certainly never foresaw the cold stratosphere coming what with the higherthan normal ozone around the northern hemisphere throughout the summer andautumn.Neither did I see the lack of Asian wave action or the lacklustre MJO.Although I think December is a non starter as far as winter weather isooncerned for the UK there are still three and a half weeks left of themonth where we could see changes taking place in the stratosphere which wouldleave me much more optimistic going forward into January and February.We need the stratosphere on our side.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

What frustrates me about the model runs of late are that they are CONSISTENTLY modelling this high pressure domination run after run with very marginal differences. If cold was showing in the models we all know that there would be much larger differences between runs. Having just flicked through the GFS 18z runs up to now there is still no sign of the slug of high pressure shifting anytime soon.