Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[TonyH]

Yes, ten posts a day is great! 

Agreed much easier to get through

Prediction March 2014 will be in top 10 driest and warmest on record. Let's see if either come true. One things for sure, the first 15 days are not going to be as cold as the first half of March 2013.

Doubt that as Coventry is already at 16.4mm so a wet start:

http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Agreed much easier to get through

Doubt that as Coventry is already at 16.4mm so a wet start:

http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/

You are right.  It was a wet few days in Coventry.  A good reminder why I have longed to see charts we currently have showing for the next 10 days.

 

Though CET is taken as a national average I believe, so a wet start in the Midlands would be averaged out by drier weather elsewhere?

[Purga]

Better than hundreds of posts of one liners saying, "Eyes down for the 12z" or "I'll bank the ECM at +240" with nothing to support it or actual comments on what the models are showing. 

Well said Duncan, I'll bank that comment & it's eyes down for the next good 'un ....

[March Blizzard]

It's looking almost certain high pressure will sit over/near the UK for much of next week. I really hope it's not a cloudy high...

[hec1]

here comes the southern UK drought!!!!!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's looking almost certain high pressure will sit over/near the UK for much of next week. I really hope it's not a cloudy high...

That's an issue that I often raise.  I think the high around the 10th looks like starting off as a mainly "sunny" high, because it comes over with a polar maritime incursion of the sort that tends to bring well-broken cumulus and clear spells.  After that, it depends on whether or not we import much cloud from the North Atlantic or the North Sea.  I think generally speaking it will be sunnier the further south you are and most places to the east of high ground should also be sunny, but I think the west and north of Scotland and Cumbria may well end up mostly cloudy.

[simshady]

New watch word for spring and summer-----BLIP

[damianslaw]

That's an issue that I often raise.  I think the high around the 10th looks like starting off as a mainly "sunny" high, because it comes over with a polar maritime incursion of the sort that tends to bring well-broken cumulus and clear spells.  After that, it depends on whether or not we import much cloud from the North Atlantic or the North Sea.  I think generally speaking it will be sunnier the further south you are and most places to the east of high ground should also be sunny, but I think the west and north of Scotland and Cumbria may well end up mostly cloudy.

 

Yes - it looks like there will be a slight SW drift over NW parts which only means one thing and that is the NW-SE divide, with the NW plagued by cloud whilst the rest of the country sees bright or sunny spells - we shall see.

 

March often produces a lengthy dry period and once again we are about to see our first significant dry period since well I can't remember.. Before the start of next week a few more unsettled days to come especially for the north.

 

I had thought the high pressure would languish to the west and pull down colder NW flow, I still think this may develop but perhaps a few days later than suggested, there is still some energy in the PV and it will exert pressure on the high pressure as it transfers to a position away from its resident winter 13/14 home i.e. further eastwards dropping down a trough to our NE allowing a flow from the north - something again well we haven't seen since  June last year!

 

These next few days are going to make for very quiet reading in this forum.. zzzzz..

[Summer Sun]

The biggest positive I see today is the video below from the met office / beeb always good to have the experts on board

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26452326

 

ps any chance of a new thread Model Banter, Moans and Ramps thread for spring? seen as we are now past "winter 13/14"

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The biggest positive I see today is the video below from the met office / beeb always good to have the experts on board

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26452326

 

ps any chance of a new thread Model Banter, Moans and Ramps thread for spring? seen as we are now past "winter 13/14"

 

Yeah true it is on page 115, and I fancy not being top poster in the whining thread

[Tony27]

you are the top poster on here by a clear distance, im in third place so i do moan a bit i suppose

[Tony27]

The biggest positive I see today is the video below from the met office / beeb always good to have the experts on board

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/26452326

 

ps any chance of a new thread Model Banter, Moans and Ramps thread for spring? seen as we are now past "winter 13/14"

bit early for that ain't it there is a good 6 months still to come for chances of warm sunny weather, so if march is not good then there is plenty of time for good weather and it would be a bit silly moaning in march if there is no mild/warm weather, coldies are told not to moan in december if there is no snow because there is still time, but we only have a 3 month window for snow

Edited March 6, 2014 by Tony27

[CongletonHeat]

Got next week off work as it is Cheltenham festival, models looking good for dry and hopefully some warm weather.

[MP-R]

Liking the look of GFS FI - a lot more mobile, cold zonality, bright days with sunshine and mixed showers, more typical of March. Until then, I'm just glad I've got lots of work to do as the the foreseeable doesn't provide anything of interest on the models.

[sundog]

Looking forward to some sunny pleasant weather next week,pleasant days and fairly chilly nights,perfect march weather.

[vladthemert]

just seen GFS weekend wind estimates from passing storm coastal north west scotland in for some strong winds if they right

 

Surely GFS over estimated winds

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=boen&HH=61&PANEL=2&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

 

[Richard2901]

I'll believe there's decent weather on the way only when I see it. This has been another thoroughly depressing week of weather. The worst since January. It is just unbearable on top of the worst winter of all time. Barely any sunshine since last Sunday afternoon (<5 hours) and the weekend looks rubbish - the cloudiest since January

 

Last night's min a disgusting 7.6C and barely any higher by day with dreary grey skies. The extreme lack of temperature variation just goes on and on. Still only two days reached 10C this year, both only just, and nothing other than the odd pathetic frost. The start of last March produced warmer temperatures and the start of March 2012 colder temperatures. All that's happened in recent weeks is it's shifted from 5-7C maxes every day to 7-9C maxes every day. A total disgrace when this month should be seeing bigger swings in temperature from cold to warm than any other

 

This evening it's raining yet again and the amount of surface water is unbelievable given that only 3mm has fallen. The ground is completely saturated and can't take any more of this ridiculous weather

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Is it my imagination or is this settled spell getting shorter at both ends? looks to me like just 4 days of high pressure, before normality resumes on friday 14th

 

may not even settle down at all in the far NW

[Summer Sun]

Is it my imagination or is this settled spell getting shorter at both ends? looks to me like just 4 days of high pressure, before normality resumes on friday 14th

 

may not even settle down at all in the far NW

 

I get 7 days for the south based on ECM, Gem doesn't show the mid month breakdown

 

All the country should see at least 2 or 3 days of settled weather though not necessarily sunny

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I get 7 days for the south based on ECM, Gem doesn't show the mid month breakdown

 

All the country should see at least 2 or 3 days of settled weather though not necessarily sunny

 

GEM still shows westerlies for all UK by friday 14th, wet oop norf, I would have thought, but cloudy, windy dry for the south post 13th

[March Blizzard]

GEM still shows westerlies for all UK by friday 14th, wet oop norf, I would have thought, but cloudy, windy dry for the south post 13th

Darren Bett (I think) mentioned sunny and settled to "early next week" which I found a bit ominous. Are there signs cloud could be a factor from midweek onwards? Maybe even an earlier than expected pattern change?

[Summer Sun]

Darren Bett (I think) mentioned sunny and settled to "early next week" which I found a bit ominous. Are there signs cloud could be a factor from midweek onwards? Maybe even an earlier than expected pattern change?

 

This is how the met see things as of this lunchtime 

Most areas fine through Tuesday and quite sunny, with unbroken sunshine for some. It may be cloudier in parts of southern England and northwest Scotland.

 

Through the rest of the week, high pressure will dominate, with only northwest Scotland and perhaps western parts of Northern Ireland seeing occasional damp, windier weather, whilst elsewhere there will be a good deal of settled weather with some sunshine.  Daytime temperatures probably above normal, but often chilly overnight with the risk of frost and fog.

 

Then a change to something more unsettled

 

Towards next weekend and into the following week, it is likely to turn more changeable, especially in the north. Here, some heavy rain, hill snow and gales seem increasingly likely, and even in the south some cloudier, windier weather with occasional rain, with temperatures returning to normal.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Darren Bett (I think) mentioned sunny and settled to "early next week" which I found a bit ominous. Are there signs cloud could be a factor from midweek onwards? Maybe even an earlier than expected pattern change?

 

I heard him say frosty nights early in the week, so I assumed cloudy rest of week

[March Blizzard]

This is how the met see things as of this lunchtimeThen a change to something more unsettled

Thanks Summer Sun, is that completely up to date? I was talking about the BBC forecast at 6:30 today. I got the impression certainty is lower than of late.Of course, I may be just reading too much into it!*edit*: Ah, I just noticed your "as of lunchtime" comment. Edited March 6, 2014 by March Blizzard

[Summer Sun]

Thanks Summer Sun, is that completely up to date? I was talking about the BBC forecast at 6:30 today. I got the impression certainty is lower than of late.Of course, I may be just reading too much into it!

 

Was updated just after 12:08 only updated once a day