Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Gord]

You know things are bad when John starts posting wise crack's!..... Gord bless him.

 

I'm not blessing anyone...I'm not qualified to do so!

[Bristawl Si]

"Pattern change" - how many times have i read that this last couple of months? - ban the term.

[damianslaw]

This has been a most frustrating winter for anyone hoping for cold, snow, sunny dry calm weather - in complete contrast to the last 5 and therefore has perhaps come as a bit of a reality check for some - our winters are more often than not likely to be dominated by the atlantic, but no denying the fact this winter has seen the atlantic in full 5th gear throttle where a number of forces have come together and supercharged it on a scale of such sustained power there has been no chance of a pattern change, not even a shortlived temporary ridge - quite unusual..

 

I am looking forward to Spring and hopefully a change from the supercharged atlantic and perhaps our eyes will be drawn to developments to our north and east as opposed to the west.

 

I remain hopeful in a months time we will looking at some very different synoptics to what we have been used to since well late September now.

 

I am also hopeful of much better fortunes next winter for those wanting some calm sunny dry weather and cold snowy weather.

 

Winter 13/14 full of rainy windy extremes, a real shocker!

[Polar Maritime]

"Pattern change" - how many times have i read that this last couple of months? - ban the term.

 

If that's what the models are showing, people forecast it or it happens then so be it, Why the need to ban the term?

[John Cox]

Well one word for this pathetic excuse of a winter. Sh#te. I havent seen one flake of snow here yet, the local rivers have been in constant flood for weeks.the wind hasn't stopped howling. Ive just a bout gave up on a cold spell. Bring on a nice warm summer surely it has to dry out some time. Please I just cant take anymore.

We had at least a million snowflakes last week. The result was a light covering on my car and a dusting on the grass Edited February 18, 2014 by John Cox

[damianslaw]

Further words - whilst its been a shocker in terms of wind and rain, at least its been an interesting winter weatherwise/synoptic wise never a dull moment. Other recent very mild winters have been associated with azores high/euro high dominance with lacklustre grey drizzly cloudy skies with long fetch southwesterlies, which I find to be the most frustrating type of weather/synoptics at any time of year. Thankfully we have been spared the dire synoptics of winter 88/89 in this respect and periods such as Dec 06 and 07. Whilst never cold at least around here it has felt like winter with the rain wind and temps never too far off average and none of the silly 11-14 maxes such synoptics described often deliver - though we did see the stirrings of such synoptics on occasion in December, Christmas period being a particularly bleak one in this respect.

 

What has been very disappointing though is the complete lack of any dry crisp sunny blue skies with frost early and late.. we still have March and April though!

Edited February 18, 2014 by damianslaw

[abruzzi spur]

Oh please!! It takes no skill what so ever to call mild in winter for this country, it is the norm after all, especially this winter with the pv planted where it is has been.

Smartie, I think this is a bit of an odd comment. The Met Office never once, unlike many on here, jumped properly onto any cold bandwagon, instead they forecast quiet spells when they felt they should, and they also forecast wind, storms, rain, all at almost unprecedented levels. Are you saying that because our more usual weather type in winter is wind, rain and mild, they demonstrated no skill? If so then I think that is a long way off the mark. I accept that some who forecast mild seemed to do it with less of a scientific basis and more sometimes with a desire to provoke, but simply saying calling mild = no skill does, I think, a huge disservice to many posters on here over the winter.AS

[Peter H]

We had at least a million snowflakes last week.The result was a light covering on my car and a dusting on the grass

 

 

Indeed, I think that was the winter this year. All washed away by the rain at lunch time.

 

Today has been really quite mild and spring like and that seems to be the extended outlook as well now. What I'd give for a Scandinavian high and easterlies/north easterlies for a couple of weeks, even this late in the season.But that's all wishful thinking at this stage of the game.

Still, hopefully the summer will throw up something more settled, and there's always winter 2014/15 to look forward to. It surely can't be as bad as this one.  

 

[mpkio2]

Still hate this winter with a strong passion and can not wait to see the back end of it!!!

 

As many have pointed out, the past 5 winters, we have been spoiled rotten with at least some cold/snowy spells and, in some instances, a long duration of time, and it is those winters which set expectation of what we believe we "should" be receiving this winter. But, as we all know, the weather gods have given us quite the shocker this Winter 13/14, a reality check, that not all winters are cold and snowy, and are sometimes dominated by stormy Atlantic driven weather. Of course, this has many most cold/snow fans 9Including myself1), very disappointed.

 

I believe, however, that we shouldn't have our expectations so high for winter, because in some cases, like this one, can leave us feeling rather down when the weather doesn't deliver the goods we all want; Again, blame the last 5 winters for this, which she be treated as a "expectations-setter", but more as "exceptional circumstances and results".

 

I agree with many who point out that this winter has in no way been "boring"; there's always something going on, whether it be storms, heavy rain, coolish conditions, and the exceptional snow amount in the Scottish mountains. However, just because its "history-making," doesn't mean we have to like it! I love December 2010 (For obvious reasons!), but that doesn't necessarily mean that everyone's gonna love that "infamous" month of cold/snowy weather. The same applies now to this winter and this weather!!!

 

To end it all, I just hope we get out of this annoying, frustrating, appalling, and God-awful winter as quickly as possible!!! Also, to anyone suffering due to floods that have wrecked our country, my thoughts go with you and I hope you can re-make anything you may have lost.

 

Winter 2013-2014, please....

 

JUST GO AWAY!!!!!!!!

 

mpkio2

Edited February 19, 2014 by mpkio2

[Peter H]

As many have pointed out, the past 5 winters, we have been spoiled rotten with at least some cold/snowy spells

 

 

Well, not quite as the winter of 2011/12 was completely snowless band exceptionally mild in north western parts of the UK.

 

Last winter was quite a strange one with the snow being very localised especially at sea level in these parts. 

On the subject of winter forecasts, this one in particular was completely way off the mark.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

 

I don't think the weather outlook got one month of the winter forecast correct.

 

Nearly as embarrassing as the Met Office "Barbecue summer" a few years back:

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1202982/Met-Office-left-red-faced-Britains-forecast-barbecue-summer-turns-washout.html

:

 

 

  

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Model watching has changed in recent years. We have to make do with long periods of one dominant weather pattern now for weeks at a time.

Depending on your weather preference this can be a source of sustained excitement or frustration.

This locked in Atlantic low pressure train of storms just became too much for a lot of us, even for those who were not directly affected by flooding.

I equally felt anxious for last year's March easterly to end. It was cold from Sept through to late May.

Then when the warmth of July, August and September came I didn't want it to end.

This winter it just so happens that the cold weather has all locked into the northeast seaboard and Midwest of America, whilst the Western coast of the USA has had drought whilst we have had all the rain.

It could be the flip side next winter!

Edited February 19, 2014 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[snow freak]

would just be our luck for the weather patterns to change finally and we end up with bitterly cold spring, therefore prolonging winter for another 2 months meaning even more heating costs.  Too little too late in my opinion. 

[snow freak]

Well it will just be our luck and a final insult in this abysmal winter for the weather pattern to finally change come the Spring and we end up having a bitterly cold Spring instead of in the winter months.  This would mean extending our heating costs for a further 2 months or more and would mean our winter has lasted nearly 6 months (if you can actually call it a winter).  Too little too late in my opinion.  I always look forward to winter and love the cold and snow, but after this perpetual autumn (oops sorry winter) i will be so glad to finally see the warm sunny weather at long last.  Let's just hope we don't have a non starter of a summer too this year.  I don't think i could cope.

[Summer Sun]

@MattHugo81 

 

I tweet this with a big disclaimer, given time frame involved, but latest EC32 maintains some trend for high pressure towards mid-March.

 

The EC32 has done pretty well this"winter" lets see how it performs during spring now

[Peter H]

Well it will just be our luck and a final insult in this abysmal winter for the weather pattern to finally change come the Spring and we end up having a bitterly cold Spring instead of in the winter months

 

Considering what happened in March 2013 I'd say that was highly unlikely, going by the law of averages.

 

It would be nice to have a mild dry spring just so long as it didn't mean another wet cool summer. 

[johnwirral]

would just be our luck for the weather patterns to change finally and we end up with bitterly cold spring, therefore prolonging winter for another 2 months meaning even more heating costs.  Too little too late in my opinion. 

A cold spring lead to a hot summer last year...

[snow freak]

A cold spring lead to a hot summer last year...

i know many people remark about last year's hot summer but i really don't recall it being that memorable myself.  Yes, we had some very warm days but nothing remarkable or particularly long running.... or am i just being absent minded?  I do keep a weather diary (sad i know) in which i mark any day in which we have particularly interesting weather (be it hot or cold weather) and i don't seem to have made any remarks about very hot days last summer at all.

[Summer Sun]

i know many people remark about last year's hot summer but i really don't recall it being that memorable myself.  Yes, we had some very warm days but nothing remarkable or particularly long running.... or am i just being absent minded?  I do keep a weather diary (sad i know) in which i mark any day in which we have particularly interesting weather (be it hot or cold weather) and i don't seem to have made any remarks about very hot days last summer at all.

 

What I remember of summer 2013 is the prolonged heatwave we experienced across the UK from the 3^rd to 22^nd July.

 

I think it was also the warmest, driest and sunniest summer in the UK since 2006.

[Bobby]

The 3 weeks in July were very warm, dry and sunny, the rest of the summer was fairly average and unmemorable here at least.

[Eskimo]

Yes I also remember it being fairly dry and sunny up to the 30th July here, and then 34C being reached on the 1st August making it the hottest day of the year. You're probably wondering what happened to the 31st July, well that was my birthday and it was wet and grim...typical!

[TwisterGirl81]

The 3 weeks in July were very warm, dry and sunny, the rest of the summer was fairly average and unmemorable here at least.

 

 

It was gorgeous in the south I think at one point I was even hoping for some rain,  It didn't rain for nearly a whole month here... I think they must be far away as they heard me four months later.

 

I really hope we have a lovely summer again, the whole country

Edited February 19, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[TwisterGirl81]

Still hate this winter with a strong passion and can not wait to see the back end of it!!!

 

As many have pointed out, the past 5 winters, we have been spoiled rotten with at least some cold/snowy spells and, in some instances, a long duration of time, and it is those winters which set expectation of what we believe we "should" be receiving this winter. But, as we all know, the weather gods have given us quite the shocker this Winter 13/14, a reality check, that not all winters are cold and snowy, and are sometimes dominated by stormy Atlantic driven weather. Of course, this has many most cold/snow fans 9Including myself1), very disappointed.

 

I believe, however, that we shouldn't have our expectations so high for winter, because in some cases, like this one, can leave us feeling rather down when the weather doesn't deliver the goods we all want; Again, blame the last 5 winters for this, which she be treated as a "expectations-setter", but more as "exceptional circumstances and results".

 

I agree with many who point out that this winter has in no way been "boring"; there's always something going on, whether it be storms, heavy rain, coolish conditions, and the exceptional snow amount in the Scottish mountains. However, just because its "history-making," doesn't mean we have to like it! I love December 2010 (For obvious reasons!), but that doesn't necessarily mean that everyone's gonna love that "infamous" month of cold/snowy weather. The same applies now to this winter and this weather!!!

 

To end it all, I just hope we get out of this annoying, frustrating, appalling, and God-awful winter as quickly as possible!!! Also, to anyone suffering due to floods that have wrecked our country, my thoughts go with you and I hope you can re-make anything you may have lost.

 

Winter 2013-2014, please....

 

JUST GO AWAY!!!!!!!!

 

mpkio2

 

 

I understand what you mean and I am a big cold fan, maybe because I am in the southwest and we rarely get a proper snow event unless on the moors I am very realistic about are chances each winter....But I think snow and ice are far more dangerous  than rain and wind storms, yes property in 'flood prone' area's get flooded but more people get hurt or killed in snow and ice, lives can't be replaced like furniture can.

[Purga]

@MattHugo81 

 

I tweet this with a big disclaimer, given time frame involved, but latest EC32 maintains some trend for high pressure towards mid-March.

 

The EC32 has done pretty well this"winter" lets see how it performs during spring now

But the question SS, is - where will it be located?

 

It's a very vague tweet to say the least & the outcome could be anywhere between brilliant & diabolical!

 

And I've got a sneaky suspion what it will be..  

[The PIT]

Next Tuesday, Wednesday into Thursday maybe interesting. If what the GFS is showing isn't altered by the time it comes in to the reliable time frame.

[mpkio2]

I understand what you mean and I am a big cold fan, maybe because I am in the southwest and we rarely get a proper snow event unless on the moors I am very realistic about are chances each winter....But I think snow and ice are far more dangerous  than rain and wind storms, yes property in 'flood prone' area's get flooded but more people get hurt or killed in snow and ice, lives can't be replaced like furniture can.

Yeah. As much as I like the cold/snow, sometimes you have to be realistic about the weather.

 

I think that both weather types (Cold/snow/ice) and (rain/winds/floods) are as dangerous as each other. Elderly people are especially at risk when it comes to cold weather, but, of course, can be just as dangerous to people of any age; I remember the papers reporting some deaths in December 2010. But the same can be said about the floods! It was reported that people lost their lives due to the floods that occured in Summer 2012.

 

(You can watch the documentary on 4oD "The Year Britain Flooded" and "The Year Britain Frooze" about how both events caused destruction and, in some cases, took the lives of people. though you might have already watched it. )

 

My point is, both weather types are just as dangerous and life-threatening as each other; known are worse than the other, though it does deppend on the individul and his/hers weather preferrence in which they like. Which is why I say pray to those who are being affected by the floods right now, cause, as you say, some people have lost loved ones, and thats something than can never be replaced.

 

mpkio2