Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[bluearmy]

can i defend the ecm 32 dayer.  i guess i shouldnt post these but here are the mean slp, heights and anomlys for the 8th jan.

 

                       

 

 

its not always the output but perhaps those looking at the output who are to blame ??  remember, these are ens means of 51 runs. 

 

the general theme remains the same thereafter with the euro anomoly slowly losing its significance over time but still there by the end of the run.

Edited December 24, 2013 by bluearmy

[carinthian]

Of course had you access to EC32 you presumably would have discounted it anyway on the basis that its rubbish ;-)

The EC model is just one of many we look at and never discounted it as rubbish. We tend to use our own model in the short term resolutions , which is ideal for localised mountain forecasts. For longer term predictions we use the expertise provided for a portal service, this includes trends out to 30 days with snowfall prediction, not only locally but on a wider scale that encompasses the UK.

 C

Edited December 24, 2013 by carinthian

[draztik]

can i defend the ecm 32 dayer.  i guess i shouldnt post these but here are the mean slp, heights and anomlys for the 8th jan.

 

eps_m_mslpa_eur_33.png                        eps_m_z500a_eur_33.png

 

 

its not always the output but perhaps those looking at the output who are to blame ??  remember, these are ens means of 51 runs. 

 

the general theme remains the same thereafter with the euro anomoly slowly losing its significance over time but still there by the end of the run.

 

That chart on the 8th, obviously shows lower heights into Europe... but it is transitory, and we see a return to mean toughing to our NW, extending thru Greenland. if you're going to post the ec32 graphics, you should at least add a little context, without isolating one day.

 

as is often on this website, its a case of shooting the messenger and never the message. This is what the ec32 shows! Do I particularly care for this? Not really. But there we have it. You said yourself when you first saw the model "the met office will probably look at this and continue with their output of unsettled and below average, but nothing overly cold" or words to that effect.... you cant have it both ways BlueArmy.

Edited December 24, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

Merry christmas to you all and stay safe through the stormy weather and floods. :-)

[yido]

This is a pretty cool site to see what's happening wind wise on a global scale, especially at the moment with the storms we're experiencing

[url=http://earth.nullschool.net]http://earth.nullschool.net

Edited December 24, 2013 by yido

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122418/gfsnh-0-150.png?18

Nice chart-

 

as for the ECM 32 dayer - its as often wrong as it is right-

 

S

[swfc]

Already subtle changes on the 18z at 144hrs with the systems the other side of the pond?looks slightly less amplified in the atlantic

[bluearmy]

That chart on the 8th, obviously shows lower heights into Europe... but it is transitory, and we see a return to mean toughing to our NW, extending thru Greenland. if you're going to post the ec32 graphics, you should at least add a little context, without isolating one day. as is often on this website, its a case of shooting the messenger and never the message. This is what the ec32 shows! Do I particularly care for this? Not really. But there we have it. You said yourself when you first saw the model "the met office will probably look at this and continue with their output of unsettled and below average, but nothing overly cold" or words to that effect.... you cant have it both ways BlueArmy.

The mean troughing to the nw isnt an issue as it extends se into europe. As i said, over the following fortnight, this signal fades somewhat but doesnt disappear. Its a mean chart so isnt to be taken literally. without ian's input re the reading ens plumes, we cannot know about any clustering. As far as exeter's 15/30 day, i have been around the block enough times to know that to go into winter mode, they will need a lot more soldiers in line including mogreps-15 which, in my experience, is slow to react to a pattern change.

[shaky]

Good 18z so far!!

[Captain Shortwave]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122418/gfsnh-0-150.png?18

Nice chart-

 

as for the ECM 32 dayer - its as often wrong as it is right-

 

S

Yep the GFS continues to separate that low from the Canadian Vortex which allows an Atlantic ridge to make it's presence felt. Safe solution still on here.

We really need the ECM and UKMO to start thinking this soon though.

[Mucka]

Pretty good consistency between the 12z and 18z runs from GFS though of course the 18z isn't as amplified as we would like.

Not really worth worrying about small run to run differences between operations at the mo though, it is the trend we need to look for and that means comparing tomorrows output with today's to see if we are still going the right way overall.

Also comparison between ensemble suits will give guidance.

 

Well that's the last pre Xmas run so time to wish you all a very merry Xmas, have a good one.

[forecaster]

Well spotted! How strange is that, its a large difference between them? Anyone know why that would be?

Greenland is mostly elevated. Have to be careful with what you look at. Nwp shows pressure reduce d to sea level. Station might be reporting station level pressure which would be relatively low. Reduced to sea level pressure is called Qnh, that's what you want to look at

[Snowman.]

Maybe we're done with windy weather yet?

 

 

Some of the last juice being squeezed from the piece of the PV over Canada with some impressive ridging in the states. 

 

Happy holidays to all here! 

Edited December 24, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[forecaster]

 as for the ECM 32 dayer - its as often wrong as it is right- S

You need some evidence to back that up.

[nick sussex]

It's like a horse race between the low which engages the PV deepens and moves east and a ridge to the north. If we see a stronger ridge further west then you'd wager on some good trough disruption, if the ridge can't beat off this attack then it might need another attempt if the upstream pattern amplifies.

 

The GFS and ECM both show potential, we have to hope the UKMO is more amplified tomorrow, at least theres finally some cold interest in the outputs. Lets hope for this good trend to continue. Happy Xmas all, lets hope for a snowy start to the New Year.

[Snowman.]

You need some evidence to back that up.

Last 3 months.

 

That should be enough.

[Captain Shortwave]

You need some evidence to back that up.

I think the fact it goes out 32 days, with the usual "butterfly effect" means that by the end of its run. The fact we are often very sceptical of output within 7 days in advance means that a model which goes out 4 times as far isn't going to very believable in many peoples eyes. Often we can only go with what is displayed in front of us. Long range forecasting is a very very difficult science. There are other models (CFS/JMA/Korean) and when all of them sing from the same hymn-sheet then it's all fine and dandy and at times they can be spot on. But when they disagree (which by chaos theory would be more often than say the ECM/GFS at 5 days out) then the long range outputs can look on the face of it pretty useless. But again we have to start somewhere.

[swfc]

You need some evidence to back that up.

id have to say id agree with SM.There arnt any models that are accurate over that period of time and it generally changes accordingly inline with the mo.Look how often the meto updates and even fax charts change.Trends are there but still hit and miss past the 140 hour mark imo.merry xmas guys

[Purga]

Good 18z so far!!

Which sadly goes down the tubes badly later on

 

Mr Flat Zonal takes over yet again.

[davacr123]

Which sadly goes down the tubes badly later on

 

Mr Flat Zonal takes over yet again.

That looks anything but flat to me

[BlueHedgehog074]

A...

 

 

...and also to everyone else in Netweatherland! May the weather be kind to you at Christmas. Take care out their if affected by floods, heavy precipitation and/or stormy weather.

 

May the GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, JMA (and the others) also bring you the weather you've dreamed for in the New Year - whether it's cold, crispy, frosty days; heavy snow; blizzards; sunshine and showers; mild/warm and sunny; thunderstorms; mist and fog; rain and strong winds; snow showers with minus infinity 850mb temperatures... you name it.  

[shaky]

Which sadly goes down the tubes badly later on

 

Mr Flat Zonal takes over yet again.

hopefully we get a better 00z run purga!!man all this waiting around for snow is mentally exhausting!!

[stratty]

hopefully we get a better 00z run purga!!man all this waiting around for snow is mentally exhausting!!

 

..........ps don't forget if the charts are still poor for cold tomorrow, you can always blame 'lack of data'

 

Have a great day all...........................and..........

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Panayiotis]

Merry Christmas to everyone on here!

[JOPRO]

Here's to a snowy and cold new year!!