Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[mountain shadow]

Nick,

 

I'm guessing we dont want that Newfoundland trough phasing with our main low and instead hope it runs up the West of Greenland?

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131230/12/180/h500slp.png

[Captain Shortwave]

To be fair to the GFS here it's better than the UKMO

GFS at the same time

 

In the second frame of low resolution, I have consigned the low res output to the bin... standard. Kind of fed up with the polar vortex exploding into life as soon as day 8 passes 

Edited December 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[kev238]

Multiple bouts of rain over the next 6 days ; pretty sure flooding will be hitting headlines more and more. Saying that todays did not produce a great deal of rain over in the East Midlands

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hello there?!

 

 

 

Nope doesn't get there but it's close! Ridging just not quite strong enough.

Edited December 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[nick sussex]

Nick,

 

I'm guessing we dont want that Newfoundland trough phasing with our main low and instead hope it runs up the West of Greenland?

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131230/12/180/h500slp.png

You can see what happens with the phasing, game over , low heights pulled east. it's all really to do with the low over the UK, the UKMO has a deep low aswell. We'll see what the ECM does later, both the GFS and UKMO are similar in trend, upstream you need a stronger ridge carved ahead of the low and this is effected by energy running out of the sw USA meeting up with the PV that will determine the amplitude of that.

[LomondSnowstorm]

On the plus side, there's an absolutely mega upgrade on the 10hpa strat warming:

 

Edited December 30, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[bradymk]

Personally feel that the low-res ruined the potential of the run. Like Nick says above, the low isnt as shallow and doesnt fill as quickly as we would like but I still think it would of been a better outcome than what the low-res just churned out when it phased the low. Great strat forecast though again.

Edited December 30, 2013 by bradythemole

[stratty]

Hello there?!

 

 

 

Nope doesn't get there but it's close! Ridging just not quite strong enough.

...is it the best attempt we've seen as yet? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On the plus side, there's an absolutely mega upgrade on the 10hpa strat warming:

 

Yep

 

 

 

Vortex days numbered?

[stratty]

On the plus side, there's an absolutely mega upgrade on the 10hpa strat warming:

+ with this...............it is looking more and more promising

 

[R.P. McMurphy]

Not much of a difference from the 06Z to the 12Z then...

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

There'll be no blue left on this map at this rate

 

[Ali1977]

The differences in runs even at day 10, along with a very good SW event forecast could swing a cold event into life at short notice....I hope

[mountain shadow]

Pretty desperate 12z GFS for cold and/or snow away from high ground. Wet and windy to continue at least until mid month based on this one run.

 

All eyes continue to look up to the Stratosphere for any hope for the second half of winter.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yep

 

 

 

Vortex days numbered?

 

Vortex almost gone (or at least what's left of it is on holiday in California )

[lorenzo]

On the plus side, there's an absolutely mega upgrade on the 10hpa strat warming:

 

 

Potentially January 17th - for a 3rd year in row ??!!

[Timmytour]

High Resolution GFS sees the barrage of Atlantic lows unable to penetrate east beyond the UK and being pushed back further and further west.

As soon as it goes into low resolution, the Atlantic smashes through.

I'm tempted to completely disregard the low resolution on this account and see the trend as becoming an increasingly dominant resistant Siberian High which pushes its influence further and further east across Europe, eventually stretching to the UK. And I've no doubt that as it does so, the cold uppers will soon follow

Edited December 30, 2013 by Timmytour

[Gaz1985]

Pretty much more of the same, wet wet wet. By this time half of meteorological Winter will be written off as unsettled. A real concern for floods by this point too.

 

Edited December 30, 2013 by Gaz1985

[cyclonic happiness]

If the stratospheric warming continues to get upgraded like that, then we could be in for a potent cold spell later this month.

January you mean, would be great to get a cold spell tomorrow though :-D

[Jason M]

This will be an interesting test of the strat theories because there is nothing in the charts at the moment to suggest anything other than the PV being sat to our NW for at least the next few weeks. Let's see what the rest of the output brings.

[Cheshire Freeze]

If the stratospheric warming continues to get upgraded like that, then we could be in for a potent cold spell later this month.

 

Upper temps are often at their coldest last week of Jan too.....

[Mucka]

So far the models really seem to be struggling and I would be very dubious of both UKMO and GEM runs so far this afternoon. UKMO looks too progressive (maybe Ian F can say more on how it is viewed byt he experts) and goes against the main trend today of the Scandinavian ridge being more resilient while GEM is far too quick with Azores ridge due to the lack of trough dropping S/SE that's modelled by all other output.

That doesn't mean GFS has it right either but it does mean that FI (as far as the bigger picture is concerned - if not the weather we immediately experience) is around T120 as it often is.

Edited December 30, 2013 by Mucka

[lassie23]

January you mean, would be great to get a cold spell tomorrow though :-D

Sorry, thought it was 2014 already! A white new years eve would have been cool though, rather than what the models are showing.

[Jason M]

Well CFS brings in some very cold weather around the 864 hour mark.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=864&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

[Mucka]

Easterly flow in just 5 days?

 

 

Of course not but it does go to show how much divergence there is in mid range output at the moment - keep watching.

 

EDIT

 

GFS ensembles.

 

Around 30% show decent WAA and ridging toward Greenland that may be of use to us end of hi res and quite a few more show a weaker signal.

Edited December 30, 2013 by Mucka