Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[bluearmy]

This will be an interesting test of the strat theories because there is nothing in the charts at the moment to suggest anything other than the PV being sat to our NW for at least the next few weeks. Let's see what the rest of the output brings.

 

and you cant expect anything from the possible strat warming until at least 5 days after it has happened. at the moment, we dont quite get to a warming within two weeks so that mean no strat effect until around the 21st IF there was a quick response downwelling.  do we really have insight that low heights are supposed to remain to our nw for the next three weeks ??

[legritter]

Good afternoon all fellow posters .Well models and Data currently shows hardly any let up in our stormy and wet end of the year ,with plenty more atlantic weather to come for at least the next 8/10days .Im half expecting a sudden change in the far outlook given chatter across many weather channels and info taken from the web ,lets hope this is the case but patience i think will be needed as any possible SSW etc could take some time to affect current conditions .Long range forecasting beyond two weeks is so hard to achieve even with todays super Computers .Just take todays monthly outlook that could change suddenly come this week so i have found an alternative machine to find out the general pattern ONE Month from now its called the    TARDIS  .unless you want to rely on CFS ,Certainly not boring weather ,roll on tonights runs ,cheers gang .

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some interesting ensembles as soon as day 8 now.....

[Jason M]

and you cant expect anything from the possible strat warming until at least 5 days after it has happened. at the moment, we dont quite get to a warming within two weeks so that mean no strat effect until around the 21st IF there was a quick response downwelling. do we really have insight that low heights are supposed to remain to our nw for the next three weeks ??

All fair points. I agree that any warming will be for the 2nd part of January and should have made that clear. Nonetheless it will still be interesting to see if it impacts given what we saw last year. Re low heights to our NW it can change of course but most of the output in recent days and supporting ensemble suites have suggested this. It's also credible given current background signals and we know that its a resilient pattern when it sets up. On this basis I'll stick with my view for now whilst hoping I'm wrong and having just raised an eyebrow at the 5 day easterly GEFS member posted a short while ago. Edited December 30, 2013 by Jason M

[bluearmy]

mucka - you should be ashamed of yourself !  that cant happen at day 5.

 

anyway, dominant cluster visible on the gefs at day 10 with the extended atlantic ridge across to our north and trough hanging down across us below. 

[Purga]

Some interesting ensembles as soon as day 8 now.....

Waiting with bated breath for your predictions to materialise CC!

[Ali1977]

Defo a lot better set on Ens from the 12z, hopefully a sign of change. Tonight's ECM might get this forum buzzing....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Waiting with bated breath for your predictions to materialise CC!

 

No doubt timing has been an issue with my thoughts being too progressive. However I"m happy enough with how things are progressing. The scene is set for a harsh period of winter weather in January.

[Jason M]

Ensemble run 14 is good fun tonight on the GEFS. Perfect example of reverse zonality :-)

Mixed ensembles tonight, better than the 06z suite though.

[ITSY]

PTB 14 certainly highlights what can happen if we can cage up that vortex! And on that note, who would bet against saying that a chart like that in the 2nd half of the winter wouldn't have something to do with events up in the stratosphere!

[nick sussex]

Looking at the early developments re that ne USA low the ECM is likely to develop this more than the UKMO which had a shallow feature.

 

Further upstream there are big differences at just T96hrs with amplitude and the PV chunk over nw Canada.

Edited December 30, 2013 by nick sussex

[stratty]

Ensemble run 14 is good fun tonight on the GEFS. Perfect example of reverse zonality :-)

Mixed ensembles tonight, better than the 06z suite though.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2013123012/graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

 

 

.........some may like to keep an eye out for the very basic 'snow risk' at the bottom.................see if it improves over the next few weeks!

 

Link to page:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

Edited December 30, 2013 by stratty

[shaky]

Looking at the early developments re that ne USA low the ECM is likely to develop this more than the UKMO which had a shallow feature. Further upstream there are big differences at just T96hrs with amplitude and the PV chunk over nw Canada.

is that a good thing or a bad thing??

[nick sussex]

is that a good thing or a bad thing??

Good, you don't want the UKMO to verify! It's flatter and quicker with the energy moving across the USA. Big dfferences now at T144hrs! upstream you want that piece of energy moving up from the Gulf of Mexico to phase with the PV chunk and associated low.

Edited December 30, 2013 by nick sussex

[karlos1983]

This will be an interesting test of the strat theories because there is nothing in the charts at the moment to suggest anything other than the PV being sat to our NW for at least the next few weeks. Let's see what the rest of the output brings.

 

Seem to remember the Models having a nightmare when the strat warms like that? 

[shaky]

Good, you don't want the UKMO to verify! It's flatter and quicker with the energy moving across the USA. Big dfferences now at T144hrs! upstream you want that piece of energy moving up from the Gulf of Mexico to phase with the PV chunk and associated low.

Good stuff from the ecm!

[Frosty.]

I want to see more charts like these on the Gfs 12z op run, later in the run the air becomes cold enough for several chances for wet snow and perhaps significant falls as we finally get a trough to the northeast of the uk and unlock generally colder weather from the northwest which may lead to a significant cold spell later in January.

[chionomaniac]

There are a few posts in this thread showing 10hPa temperature charts from meteociel. Please note that the temperature patterns on these charts do not show the geopotential heights and therefore we cannot comment on the state of the polar vortex at this level from these charts. Therefore we cannot say whether there is a split vortex or not. Currently any strat warming forecasts are very much at the end of FI - yes they are promising, but I feel that we should not get overhyped about these until we something in a more reliable timeframe. Furthermore to that - even if we were to see a SSW then it would be unlikely to occur until the last third of January and any possible cold benefits would only be felt after that date so we are not likely to see any significant strat induced cold options on the modelling for a good while if at all.

 

Perhaps it would be a good idea if we should concentrate on the trop output for a while in this thread and keep the strat charts to the strat thread?

[shotski]

Pretty much more of the same, wet wet wet. By this time half of meteorological Winter will be written off as unsettled. A real concern for floods by this point too.

 

 

 

Hi All,

 

just noticed a couple of folk liked the post above, just curious to know if its because they like this sort of weather type or

is it just simply the quality of the input ?

 

Thanks.

[Captain Shortwave]

Nice Atlantic ridge, shame the Scandi ridge has dropped out a bit and the Pacific ridge has vanished without trace.

This poor consistency and cross model agreement at even the semi reliable is really getting on my nerves now.

[Cloud 10]

Vertical Atlantic ridge on ECM 12z at 192hrs.

 

[TSNWK]

I think ECM is gonna be alright this evening, appears more amplified from the start and although it looks poor in isolation at 168 the 192 chart is nice with the Azores high ridging towards Greenland and the energy over us draining away southeastwards..

216 looks alright to me, trough draining away over us, the Azores high linking up with the heights over Greenland with maybe a little bit of light blue over southeast Greenland

Edited December 30, 2013 by TSNWK

[nick sussex]

Nice Atlantic ridge, shame the Scandi ridge has dropped out a bit and the Pacific ridge has vanished without trace.

This poor consistency and cross model agreement at even the semi reliable is really getting on my nerves now.

Very frustrating because the pattern upstream is fine  but we're not getting enough energy going east/se near the UK.

 

If that went further east there would be a stronger ridge to the north before the PV started to encroach, waiting for that low to fill and get a move on is like pulling teeth!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123012/ECH1-216.GIF?30-0

 

good 216 chart sees the energy split up western canada-

I expect a push SE of the that low at 240, but there WILL be residual heights left to the NE-IE a ridge in situ-

 

Enough to force a transitioning Northerly to easterly with a slider-

 

S

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hp across Europe is proving a real pain in the backside again.