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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123106/gfsnh-0-90.png?6

 

Possibly a better GFS coming up- could be a cold one ( first for many many many days)

 

We are looking for a deeper PNA ridge all the way down to texas...- this is the case ( or more so ) on the 06z)

 

as for the ECM 240 its right on the cusp of being OK, but slightly worse than yesterday- although at day 10 its well within the timeframe of change & not far from a good chart-

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

To have any chance at all of even a cold snap, upstream you must see more amplification so the PV and cold air meets up with some energy moving ne out of the Gulf of Mexico around the T144hrs mark ,shown by that in the red circle:

 

post-1206-0-65150400-1388484257_thumb.gi

 

This needs to deepen as much as possible and run ne towards ne Canada, this will at least develop a better ridge ahead of it, then you still need a better orientated trough near the UK with more energy heading at least east rather than just ne.

 

 

 

 

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

Parts of Ireland and N/W England could see some snow showers falling on the 4th as some cooler -5 850s run through.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123106/gfsnh-0-90.png?6 Possibly a better GFS coming up- could be a cold one ( first for many many many days) We are looking for a deeper PNA ridge all the way down to texas...- this is the case ( or more so ) on the 06z) as for the ECM 240 its right on the cusp of being OK, but slightly worse than yesterday- although at day 10 its well within the timeframe of change & not far from a good chart- S

Not seeing any improvements around 150 mark, at best it looks the same as the 00z
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Jet stream over usa different this run, couple of small low pressures off eastern seaboard as well.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Not seeing any improvements around 150 mark, at best it looks the same as the 00z

It's miles better than the 00hrs run upstream, that was much flatter, and also the PV is further nw. Still the problem of the UK limpet trough needs to be sorted out and that could still harpoon any chance if we don't see an improvement in that.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123106/gfsnh-0-162.png?6

 

Comparing the GFS 162 to the 168 00z the GFS has really sharpened the pattern towards the ECM, as a result the phasing of the energy between the southern jet & Northern jet starts to develop the low that the ECM has

 

REMEMBER WEATHER IS ABOUT TIMING

 

I suspect the GFS wont backtrack all the way to the ECM as its  still a coastal storm at 162 but significantly its stepped to the Euro today.

 

S

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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett Community Regular

Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's miles better than the 00hrs run upstream, that was much flatter, and also the PV is further nw. Still the problem of the UK limpet trough needs to be sorted out and that could still harpoon any chance if we don't see an improvement in that.

Huge area of high pressure across Europe Nick.

If we see any cold on gfs it will be mid Jan at the earliest.

The 546 Dam line cover  Portugal Spain France and stretches up towards the Baltic!!!

Edited by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The GEFS 00z perturbations are again overflowing with wintry potential in the mid / longer range with a mixture of cold and frosty anticyclonic options but mostly cold zonal or arctic incursions with reload potential on a gradually more nw / se aligned jet. I find it surprising that a few comments this morning say there is no sign of anything cold...there is actually but for the time being, cyclogenesis remains rampant along the Polar Front jet stream, occasionally strengthening further but we do get the occasional quieter interlude with brief flat ridging pushing east with an overnight frost or two and wintry showers with the brief bursts of 528 dam thicknesses...looking rather further ahead I can see more wintry potential, the GEFS 00z mean trends chilly with more chance of wintry ppn, I can see the potential.. even if others can't.Posted Image

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

THATS IT, i am writing off 2013 !!!

 

I think it's pretty safe to now as far as widespread cold and snowfall are concerned, Roll on 2014 ! Posted Image Another 2 Months of winter left yet to get through Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Its totally different mate with the low http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123106/gfsnh-0-162.png?6  coastal storm deep PNA ridge 06z http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013123100-0-168.png?0 no storm flatter PNA ridge

Yep just posted that above, I was looking around the 144 mark..but yes you can really see how it affects the Atlantic high in front of it..
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

As SM mentioned its about timing and here the GFS has the low engaging the PV very late, the ECM has this engaging earlier however it has moved towards the ECM.

 

We need the low to run as far inland as possible, overall its still  a hard slog to get to a cold snap but we'll see tonight what the models do upstream.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Yep just posted that above, I was looking around the 144 mark..but yes you can really see how it affects the Atlantic high in front of it..

 

I don't see how the deeper low on 06z off the eastern seaboard of E Canada is going to work in our favour, yes it amplifies the surface ridge ahead of it but it doesn't do much to the H500 flow - which needs to amplify more if we want to see a change to something colder. If anything, looking between the 00z and 06z, the deeper low is sign of a stronger jet streak coming out of NE Canada towards us - which we don't want!

 

Yes, it does deepen much sooner on ECM, and seems to phase with a deeper and more amplified trough coming out of NE N America. But we still have the problem of the low heights to our N and NW.

Edited by Nick F
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

In terms of upstream comments from NOAA give some hope for at least something closer to the ECM 00hrs run rather than the flat as a pancake GFS 00hrs output:

 

REGARDING FLOW OVER THE NERN PAC/ALASKA AND VICINITY... LATEST GFSRUNS ARE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY PASSING JUST S OF AK ON DAY 3FRI AND MOST INSISTENT ON AN UPR HIGH CLOSING OFF OVER/NEAR AKVERSUS THE FULL LATITUDE RIDGE THAT PERSISTS IN THE ENSEMBLEMEANS.  THESE ISSUES CONTRIBUTE TO THE GFS DEVELOPING BROADER ANDLESS AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CONUS RELATIVE TO THEMAJORITY OF GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER NOTE THAT EVEN IN THE ENSEMBLESTHERE IS THE WILD CARD OF SOME ENERGY TRYING TO FEED THROUGH THEMEAN RIDGE INTO THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

 

To give you an idea of what they mean, this was the NOAA map done yesterday the full latitude ridge they're talking about is here:

 

post-1206-0-73503000-1388486491_thumb.gi

 

This is what we want to see, we want the cold air to get as far south as possible into the USA because this would signify more amplification over there.

 

The updated State forecasts will be out soon, they're often very good at going into more detail re the pattern over there especially when theres an impact storm type scenario.

 

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Some colder weather incoming at 288, snow included....long way out but nice to see.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Another poor gfs operational with a raging +NAO nailed for the 1st week of January.

Its fair to say its not just the UK suffering from a snow drought,much of mainland Europe remains snowless in the face of this godforsaken pattern.Posted Image

 

poor in what way? the 1st week of january has been "nailed on" for some time. its the period after that where the uncertainty lies

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

As SM mentioned its about timing and here the GFS has the low engaging the PV very late, the ECM has this engaging earlier however it has moved towards the ECM.

 

We need the low to run as far inland as possible, overall its still  a hard slog to get to a cold snap but we'll see tonight what the models do upstream.

 

I think you & I just post the same stuff with a few different words thrown in - :)

 

S

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

PLUS 6 or 7 across parts of the Ukraine,and unseasonably mild across Poland Germany and the Balkans.Shocking for january.

Yup, the positive temp anomalies for those areas have remained a striking point in EC32 as far as it's output stretches. V interesting set-up (appreciate not for folk after snow!).
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Tattooed Fox Apprentice

Tattooed Fox

Posted
  • Location: Bristol - UK
  • Weather Preferences: None - UK weather is always exciting at some point
  • Location: Bristol - UK
Posted

THATS IT, i am writing off 2013 !!!

 

Why would you write off 2013?  Just because over the last few years we have had snow in and around December does not mean that we are going to get it every year.  In years gone by I can remember damp and dull Christmas's, not even a frost, and not even any snow in the New Year.  At least we can say like 'one member' said we have had a  memorable Christmas in more way than one, with the flooding and gales, and we will be talking about it years to come. I'm sure if by the end of February we have not had any snow,  then I will then say that the winter has not been to the "coldies" liking. There has been plenty to talk about on here anyway, certainly not boring at all.  Give it a chance.  Happy New Year to you AllPosted Image

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