Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Purga]

there's always hope-

 

 

what happened 10 days later?............

Always a bad sign for coldies when 1962/3 charts are dug out - 'the port of last resort'.

[Ali1977]

Much better from the ensembles this morning with rainfall finally easing across the UK giving places a welcome break and a chance to dry out January 7th onwards looks to be the turning point

The 06z not as good unfortunately.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Gav, with temps slowly falling away we could see any rain or showers turn wintry even to lower levels bar the far South after the 7th, I think that is the tipping point as SM and a few others have constantly punted with various background signals.

Edited December 31, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[lassie23]

More bitter cold over Canada, more storms in the Atlantic heading our way, the models are as they were and as they will be, for some time to come.

[SMU]

THis one JOHN

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH1-168.GIF?31-12

 

The one over the NE US>

 

Steve

Edited December 31, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Richie V]

My previous views remain unchanged this morning, see the images in I'm dreaming of post below.

I don't wish to be a killjoy but from what I'm seeing this evening, be prepared for a long ride of current pattern thru most of jan (don't ask for charts or data, I'm not allowed to post them here) after a relitive softening up of the vortex to mid next week, looks like re organising It's strength to the back end of next week somewhere between SE Greenland and south of west Icelandic waters with a strong but relitively flat azores ridging and rapidly collapsing eastward

Edited December 31, 2013 by Richie V

[IDO]

Nick an honest question for youI am not clear which low you are talking of or indeed where when you speak of the low needs to get as far inland...?

Hi JohnThe way I see it is that the low spawning off the mother PV vortex at T168 reacts differently with the jet and the upper flow.The GFS op: Gets the low running west to east, more progressive in flattening the Atlantic ridge.ECM: This send more energy over the ridge pushing the low further NE and the Atlantic ridge slowly sinks SE.By T240 the UK benefits from a brief pressure rise, with the surface flow more to our north. Edited December 31, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[johnholmes]

THis one JOHN

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH1-168.GIF?31-12

 

The one over the NE US>

 

Steve

 

 

thanks Steve, still confused over what Nick said it would do but never mind

[SMU]

thanks Steve, still confused over what Nick said it would do but never mind

 

We are hoping that the PNA ridge will be sharper - which will ensure the jet will be more amplified up the eastern side of the east coast making the storm run upwards into Canada as opposed to off the coast towards Iceland...

 

The formers track will help build the ridge up towards the pole

 

S

[Summer Sun]

06z ensembles from GFS maintain the same theme with rainfall finally easing across the UK during next week giving places a chance to dry out

 

[MPG]

06z ensembles from GFS maintain the same theme with rainfall finally easing across the UK during next week giving places a chance to dry out

 

How about the 850's SS? A gradual drop off it seems but you ignoring that?

[phil nw.]

The very cold 500hPa lobe over Canada/W.Greenland makes any Atlantic ridging difficult to achieve.

The sharp thermal gradient created off the E.Seaboard continues to feed the jet into the Atlantic and towards us creating a chain of lows through the next week or so.

We can see on the 00z ECM 850hPa charts the pulses of deep cold across N.America ejecting into the Atlantic at various points in the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-72.GIF?31-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-120.GIF?31-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-240.GIF?31-12

 

There are always chances for some transient ridging with winds turning briefly nw with polar air before the next low comes in.

This is really the best we can expect in this mobile setup.

That chunk of the vortex to our nw is the axis of the pattern for our little part of the world-it is certainly giving N.America plenty of cold but unfortunately much of Europe and Scandinavia are seeing the other side of the coin.

 

[Snowman.]

God the latest CFS is tasty.

 

Little heights north just a very negative AO and Southerly tracking jet causes channel lows galore.

 

Edited December 31, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[MPG]

The very cold 500hPa lobe over Canada/W.Greenland makes any Atlantic ridging difficult to achieve.

The sharp thermal gradient created off the E.Seaboard continues to feed the jet into the Atlantic and towards us creating a chain of lows through the next week or so.

We can see on the 00z ECM 850hPa charts the pulses of deep cold across N.America ejecting into the Atlantic at various points in the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-72.GIF?31-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-120.GIF?31-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-240.GIF?31-12

 

There are always chances for some transient ridging with winds turning briefly nw with polar air before the next low comes in.

This is really the best we can expect in this mobile setup.

That chunk of the vortex to our nw is the axis of the pattern for our little part of the world-it is certainly giving N.America plenty of cold but unfortunately much of Europe and Scandinavia are seeing the other side of the coin.

Sums it up really well. You could close the MOD thread until Feb with that post!

[nick sussex]

Regarding the much talked about upstream low this is the latest from the USA and their State forecast for Maine, basically we want a thaw in this area! because that would suggest a more inland track of the low as it heads ne!

 

At the moment they're dubious of the ECM operational run as being too extreme, too deep and the track they're not happy with, its been rejected for the timebeing as basically being over the top, however they're very uncertain of events over there for early next week, for the moment they've gone with the forecasters blended solution which is shown here:

 

First for Midday Monday

 

 

Second for Midday Tuesday

 

 

 

Certainly I think given that and the other models the GFS 00hrs solution is very unlikely to verify, those maps are a bit more amplified than the GFS 06hrs run but not as amplified as the ECM solution.

 

That map and update from Maine was done before the GFS 06hrs run and at that point you had the ECM and GFS at extremes on either side so perhaps the latest GFS might nudge them a bit more towards the ECM at least in terms of a possibility.

 

We also do have to factor in recent bias of the ECM with overamplifying, the GFS is often too flat so those maps are probably a safe option at the moment.

 

If people new to todays discussion wonder why we're basically obsessing over this low, its basically crucial to whether theres any chance at all of at least some calmer weather and possibly colder conditions even for a few days.

 

We still need help from the troughing over the UK to fill more quickly and dig more energy east/se than just ne as has been the recent trend.

 

 

 

 

[terrier]

The very cold 500hPa lobe over Canada/W.Greenland makes any Atlantic ridging difficult to achieve.The sharp thermal gradient created off the E.Seaboard continues to feed the jet into the Atlantic and towards us creating a chain of lows through the next week or so.We can see on the 00z ECM 850hPa charts the pulses of deep cold across N.America ejecting into the Atlantic at various points in the run.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-72.GIF?31-12http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-120.GIF?31-12http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123100/ECH0-240.GIF?31-12 There are always chances for some transient ridging with winds turning briefly nw with polar air before the next low comes in.This is really the best we can expect in this mobile setup.That chunk of the vortex to our nw is the axis of the pattern for our little part of the world-it is certainly giving N.America plenty of cold but unfortunately much of Europe and Scandinavia are seeing the other side of the coin.

very good post. Think this winter will be one remembered for the storms instead of cold and snow. As you say the best we can hope for is a day or 2 of pm air before next blast of lows. And from what Ian f is hinting at I think this winter will be a major let down for the coldies amongst us. Let's hope for better next winter and happy new year to you all

[Frank Trough]

How about the 850's SS? A gradual drop off it seems but you ignoring that?

 

Well, it will be january - it wouldn't be much of a surprise if it got a bit cooler. Mind you, weren't we supposed to be battling "cold zonality" now according to the GFS a while back?

 

Dreadful December, absolutely dreadful. It can only get better can't it.....once we've got through the "back to work" storm of course...

 

 

after a brief bit of hope, the ECM then flattens everything out again going forward. More wet westerly junk to come?

 

 

 

i'm pinning my hopes on Shedhead's big February freeze.

[Snowman.]

Well, it will be january - it wouldn't be much of a surprise if it got a bit cooler. Mind you, weren't we supposed to be battling "cold zonality" now according to the GFS a while back?

 

Dreadful December, absolutely dreadful. It can only get better can't it.....once we've got through the "back to work" storm of course...

 

 

 

after a brief bit of hope, the ECM then flattens everything out again going forward. More wet westerly junk to come?

 

 

 

 

i'm pinning my hopes on Shedhead's big February freeze.

The ensembles show it gradually becoming below average.

 

Albeit it may be wet but as the jet moves further south colder it allows colder air to move south as well.

[shedhead]

Well, it will be january - it wouldn't be much of a surprise if it got a bit cooler. Mind you, weren't we supposed to be battling "cold zonality" now according to the GFS a while back?

 

Dreadful December, absolutely dreadful. It can only get better can't it.....once we've got through the "back to work" storm of course...

 

 

after a brief bit of hope, the ECM then flattens everything out again going forward. More wet westerly junk to come?

 

 

 

i'm pinning my hopes on Shedhead's big February freeze.

Oh dear PC, these must be desperate times... Having taken a few days off model watching I was hoping to return to something at least a little more positive, but in truth the outlook remains pretty dire. My original thought pattern was we'd see the building blocks starting to shuffle into place early Jan, leading to a rather cold 2nd half of the month and a cold Feb, but even that currently looks a tad optimistic. Really didn't want or expect to be seeing charts like this a week into Jan, but that's just the way it is for now...as said before, we don't have to like it but we do have to accept it.

 

Edited December 31, 2013 by shedhead

[phil nw.]

Sums it up really well. You could close the MOD thread until Feb with that post!

Let's not look to far ahead MPG  -10 days or so no real change but after that who knows?

[bluearmy]

well the latest cfsv2 runs (ens averages) are really beefing up the greeny anomoly for jan and feb and now also march. given that we can see no large anomoly up there for the first ten days of jan, that makes what follows likely to be very strong. jans anomoly looks centred a bit too far nw for us to benefit but febs is better. best to just leave it for now as another indicator that winter may finally be on the way, moreso given the latest 30 dayer from exeter.  patience required as it doesnt look like getting here soon, unless that n american low verifies as an 'inland runner'.

[johnholmes]

We are hoping that the PNA ridge will be sharper - which will ensure the jet will be more amplified up the eastern side of the east coast making the storm run upwards into Canada as opposed to off the coast towards Iceland...

 

The formers track will help build the ridge up towards the pole

 

S

 

thanks Steve=understood although I suspect the upper air pattern will not allow this-could be wrong though

[Biggin]

Let's not look to far ahead MPG  -10 days or so no real change but after that who knows?

Exactly phil, uncanny how people can predict for certain or should I say guess, the 15th to 31st will be the same as the previous 2 weeks. And for those proposing this will be a poor winter and written it off already in their reverse kinda ramp, trend is your friend

[The Post-modern Winter]

very good post. Think this winter will be one remembered for the storms instead of cold and snow. As you say the best we can hope for is a day or 2 of pm air before next blast of lows. And from what Ian f is hinting at I think this winter will be a major let down for the coldies amongst us. Let's hope for better next winter and happy new year to you all

 

Could you possibly point me towards Ian F's hints Terrier? If they are as you say they are, poor for colder weather, then it seems he is increasingly at odds with the Met office who have just mentioned 'rather cold' weather potentially appearing in the next two weeks and increasingly wintery weather in the 16-30 day forecast. 

 

Additionally, since Ian Brown has liked your post I assume you haven't interpreted Ian's thoughts incorrectly. Sorry to be a bother; just interested in his thoughts in light of this and I am struggling to find anything of relevance. 

[Mucka]

Some excellent analysis today of all things MO related, including the search for a cold pattern setting up, which I hope there is always room for along with the more pragmatic guides to what that means for us over the ground over the next week or so.

 

Flicking through the ECM NH charts from the around 144 and watching the PV reform is reminiscent of that scene in the Terminator where the pools of metal coalesce.

 

 

 

 

Quite a lot has been said about the upstream pattern regarding the formation of an Atlantic ridge so I won't analyse that other than to say that if we get one then it does open up some possibilities other than the ridge just being toppled East across the UK a la ECM with the possibility of a slider developing on its Western flank which could give us some weak heights to our North with trough disruption through the South of the UK, snow likely on the Northern and Eastern flank. That is an optimistic view given we don't even know if we will get the ridge yet alone how the next wave of energy will interact with it but it is a very real option if we are looking so far ahead as day 10. I know some people prefer pragmatism but if people want 10 day possibilities that is certainly one of them along with a collapsing ridge or flatter zonal.

 

Looking at the more reliable timeframe we have the trough pushing into Europe at around day 4 which offers a slim chance for some wintriness to Northern England as colder uppers are briefly pulled in. For me the more developed and further West we can get this trough to dig the better as it will aid ridging ahead of the next low pressure  hopefully slowing the Atlantic down, reinforcing heights to the NE and thus offering more opportunity of amplifying the pattern upstream. In other words it will have an effect on the shape and depth of the trough we get behind which in turn will help define how far West we get any Atlantic ridge. Of course the upstream pattern which Nick and Steve refer to will be very important but the more resistance there is to the East (Scandinavian ridge) then the less the pattern can simply be shunted East and we could do with the pattern being further West as low pressure will get fragmented somewhat against the Southern tip of Greenland rather than simply barrelling through as shown ECM 00z.

 

We need to see some positive developments over the next few days regarding the upstream pattern otherwise it will be yet another round to the PV and being we are so far behind on points we will be relying on the Strat projections for later in January to land a knockout punch.