Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[cheshire snow]

The azores high is as important to cold as it is mild- How do people think we get ridges to link with polar highs- the azores high-

 

S

 

 Go on Steve give us a boom for the last ECM of 2013

 

 C.S

[Captain Shortwave]

Well at least the ECM delivers enough amplification in the Atlantic to deliver a northerly hopefully at day 9.

The modelling of polar heights is continuing to drive me towards insanity. Completely different to the GFS.

Edited December 31, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[TSNWK]

So frustrating at 192.. If only we could have the GFS polar heights and the ECM Atlantic profile on the same panel we would be in business.

[bluearmy]

As Lorenzo says, who believes an ECM which is more amplified than the other ops?

Useful if only to see the evolution re probable flattening

[SMU]

 Go on Steve give us a boom for the last ECM of 2013

 

 C.S

 

BOOM

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123112/ECH1-216.GIF?31-0

 

NE winds drawing in Bitter -3c air lol

 

 

S

[swfc]

Well at 216 hours the azores has an easterly  .Very frustrating mo atm ,guess its nearly time for a gallon happy new year guys

[M1JWR]

at the moment i see a similar general pattern to christmas 1998

the boxing day storm, that was a bomb !!!

I never want to experience the like ever again

[Tim Bland]

Boom sleety showers on the north York moors ....this really is a desperate winter lol

[Purga]

Nearly a ridge

Then the inevitable flattening by the Ueber Vortex

 

At least it might dry out for a while.

Edited December 31, 2013 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

UK high, better than nothing. Might see a frost 

[Mucka]

UK high, better than nothing. Might see a frost 

 

Was going to post the same thing. Who says the output is all doom and gloom LOL

[TSNWK]

UK high, better than nothing. Might see a frost 

Exactly my thoughts.. Be chilly I guess and most importantly dry...

[bradymk]

Looks exactly like the thinking from the Met-O earlier, even a frost would be nice now though. Thats how desperate it is, chasing a day 10 anticyclonic chart hoping a frost chart in FI comes to reality haha.

[TSNWK]

Looks exactly like the thinking from the Met-O earlier, even a frost would be nice now though. Thats how desperate it is, chasing a day 10 anticyclonic chart hoping a frost chart in FI comes to reality haha.

Yes but from small acorns... And lets be frank about it anything that takes us away from these rains is good..I see that Steve goes on to elaborate on how that small acorn might sprout.. Edited December 31, 2013 by TSNWK

[Panayiotis]

Speaking about BOOMs where has the BOM gone from meteociel?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123112/ECH1-240.GIF?31-0

 

The final ECM of the year improves on the 00z setting up for a low amplitude easterly at 268- note the low going under the block over Finland-

 

Also the uppers cooling down fast over europe

 

from 216

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123112/ECH0-216.GIF?31-0  averaging -4

 

to 240

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123112/ECH0-240.GIF?31-0 averaging -6 across Northern Europe.

 

Heres the Euro look

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123112/ECM1-240.GIF?31-0

 

& UK Uppers

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013123112/ECF0-240.GIF?31-0

 

S

[Purga]

UK high, better than nothing. Might see a frost 

 

Indeed, unless it's a 'cloudy high' .

[Polar Maritime]

Remember the charts are trying to show a pattern change, which as always takes a good week to be clear on any overall predominant signal. One thing is for sure the UK is trending colder, an interesting week coming up model watching, we have to start somewhere ! 

 

Happy New Year to all, and here's to 2014 

[Captain Shortwave]

Indeed, unless it's a 'cloudy high' .

Should be ok there, the UK is still under chilly 850's, the main issue would be fog at this point. There is a chance of pushing the UK high up towards Scandinavia as the low over the Canaries tries to rejoin the Atlantic jet developing a deep Atlantic trough which should amplify the downstream ridge, this along with cool/cold air feeding the low heights moving over the eastern Med.

That is of course based on the assumption that we reach this point in the first place

Edited December 31, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Promising signs once more from ECM with continued hints of a drier spell developing later next week giving the water chance to recede

 

 

We might even get a frost if the sky clears overnight

Edited December 31, 2013 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

The last ECM of 2013 leaves the carrot dangling for something colder, upstream its the best of the big 3, downstream its the worst at T144hrs.The GFS and UKMO have a lobe of high pressure to the ne, now if the ECM had this we'd see a bit more forcing on the low pressure near the UK, as it is the ECM scrapes some interest inspite of the low refusing to send any energy east or se.

 

Once everyones finished with their New Years Eve festivities I'd have a look at the ECM ensemble spreads to see if theres a cluster that take this shortwave more sw:

 

 

This is often the trigger with an easterly, and if this is shown it will also probably  be in relation to the high further north.

 

Happy New Year to all, will see you all in the early hours when I'm sure there'll be a few in here to survey the last ramblings of the GFS for 2013.

Edited December 31, 2013 by nick sussex

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The last ECM of 2013 leaves the carrot dangling for something colder, upstream its the best of the big 3, downstream its the worst at T144hrs.The GFS and UKMO have a lobe of high pressure to the ne, now if the ECM had this we'd see a bit more forcing on the low pressure near the UK, as it is the ECM scrapes some interest inspite of the low refusing to send any energy east or se.

 

Once everyones finished with their New Years Eve festivities I'd have a look at the ECM ensemble spreads to see if theres a cluster that take this shortwave more sw:

 

ECH1-216.gif

 

This is often the trigger with an easterly, and if this is shown it will also probably  be in relation to the high further north.

Its grim Nick.

It really is.

No end in sight to that PV,ah well no doubt there will be a stonking great big High there come March/April.

Happy new year all im off out to drown my sorrows!

[cooling climate]

I think as we go through January we will see pressure increasing across eastern

America with a very different second half of winter for them possibley while hights

will slowly increase and build to our west and northeast. This will lead to a colder

pattern as we go through Jan for the UK and Europe.

[lassie23]

Its grim Nick.

It really is.

No end in sight to that PV,ah well no doubt there will be a stonking great big High there come March/April.

Happy new year all im off out to drown my sorrows!

Tomorrow afternoon when you wake up from your hangover, the polar vortex will be forecast to split and a cold spell will be forecast for mid January. Or is that  the drink talking.

[Cloud 10]

Speaking about BOOMs where has the BOM gone from meteociel?

Looks like the BOM has gone walkabout down in the billabong. 

 

Meteociel - Digital Model Australian BOM ACCESS