Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[bluearmy]

further note on the ecm extended ens is that the upper ridge n scandi actually retrogresses a weak ridge towards se greenland days 11/15.  IF ecm  ens are on the right track, model watching could get very absorbing over the next week or so.

[itsnowjoke]

Happy New Year all.

[weather eater]

06z looking zonal all the way, yes some PM air in the low res but this always seems to correct as it gets into high res, while I'm sure frosty will make something off it, in reality it isn’t even a straw to clutch.

[bluearmy]

06z looking zonal all the way, yes some PM air in the low res but this always seems to correct as it gets into high res, while I'm sure frosty will make something off it, in reality it isn’t even a straw to clutch.

 

you would have to say that there currently appears to be a predisposition towards blocking to our ne at some point over the next couple of weeks.

[johnholmes]

It seems the request by chio for model outputs above the Troposphere to be kept out of this area of model discussion is being ignored, shame really as there is so much to discuss for both threads?

[draztik]

Interesting:  gfsnh-10-384.png

must admit, its becoming increasingly more difficult to ignore this warming indicated. Coupled with the 'improvement', in the ext ecm ens, a change may well be in progress. Would feel more confident if naefs started highlighting a similar evolution. So caution should be applied. But, definitely, a very interesting week coming up in terms of model watching.

[Polar Maritime]

Well another run and the trends are still there, and even stronger this morning for heights to pump up over the pole and nearly splitting the Vortex, Jet even further South slowly blocking the Atlantic. Very promising signs, remember we are going through a pattern change so lot's for the models to grasp. As i said yesterday, an interesting week coming up model watching !

 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[weather eater]

you would have to say that there currently appears to be a predisposition towards blocking to our ne at some point over the next couple of weeks.

Not really BA at least not yet, I was going to comment further on the back end of this run it certainly has interest, I started but then changed my mind as I have no faith in any output post 168hrs or so, I don’t really see beyond that point as being really worth taking seriously, at least until we see the operationals start to run with a pattern change and even then I'm cautious. The ens simply muddy the water as far as I’m concerned they are like a road junction that you pass at 60 mph, a junction that has so much signage that it’s just becomes confusing and you end up taking the wrong turning, I’d elaborate further but we are just about to go out the door, a nice 180 mile drive to London awaits in pouring rain.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL ON NETWEATHER.

 

The stratosphere warming on the GFS 06z run is off the scale with the vortex

looking totally obliterated. The warming is to the north and northeast of the UK

which should put a smile on all cold winter weather lovers faces this morning.

Plus there is significant warming that starts as early as t240.

Excellent stuff, Now where's that sledge.

Trouble is that's just a projection and subject to change like all projections, not that its not welcome.

[cooling climate]

I think we are going to see some fantastic outputs in the days ahead with major blocking

starting to appear to the north and northeast although it looks as though the 06z GFS

operational is trying to get in on the act already.

A major change in the weather for Europe and the UK will undoubtable unfold with bitter

cold from the east and northeast to come.

Now thats what I call a ramp.

[Methuselah]

Indeed, completely different: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Dd0EaEbqg

Apologies folks: I forgot to say Happy New Year to y'all. 

 

And hope that the models start showing some upcoming coldness...

[Gael_Force]

It seems the request by chio for model outputs above the Troposphere to be kept out of this area of model discussion is being ignored, shame really as there is so much to discuss for both threads?

 

I don't see how the two layers can be exclusive; he has opened the door to our understanding and it is as much part of our model run examination as anything lower down.

Are people worried that the less aware may make hasty conclusions that a bit of warmth up above automatically translates to ice days in their back yard?

[cooling climate]

It seems the request by chio for model outputs above the Troposphere to be kept out of this area of model discussion is being ignored, shame really as there is so much to discuss for both threads?

 

 

The warming that is shown on the 06z GFS run would have such a big impact on the troposphere that

it would be impossible to ignore. Even on the FI end of the 06z run it is hard to believe that the blocking

to the northeast is not strat led. Plus significant warming is forecast to start as early as t216-240 which

is not exactly la la land.

Edited January 1, 2014 by cooling climate

[MarkTJ]

It seems the request by chio for model outputs above the Troposphere to be kept out of this area of model discussion is being ignored, shame really as there is so much to discuss for both threads?

Your training and age bring you great knowledge but also wisdom John so you can surely understand that complete objectivity will often be tempered with passion in a thread such as this, especially in Winter.

[Frosty.]

I love seeing these charts with 528 dam thicknesses rushing towards the uk regularly, and this is the case with the Gfs 06z op run, it's not mild but it's certainly wild, temps generally near average /  just below, especially further north and cold at times, especially later, cold enough for snow, again especially on hills in the north with occasional frosts in the quieter interludes. However, on the whole it's another stormy run with raging cyclogenesis along the polar front jet stream but look how far south the PFJ digs , down to central /  southern spain, no wonder it would be rather cold and very unsettled for the uk. Great to see the height rises eventually to the north east, with the jet digging south, we can dream of lows undercutting the block during mid to late Jan if this becomes a trend.

Edited January 1, 2014 by Frosty.

[SMU]

Just an appendum to my morning post

 

a critical change in the ECM 10 day ensemble mean this morning- Most will miss it in there haste at assuming the atlantic is rushing back in

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010100/EDH1-240.GIF?01-12

 

Note the angle of the low in the atlantic & the jet is digging towards the azores-sure sign of a split jet, which implies the other arm is away north of scandi-

 

Also good consistancy from the ECM control!

 

PERHAPS our winter hinges on this upcoming 10 day period, * so if the ECM is corrent we could we in decent to Winter proper- if the GFS is correct we are in for more of the same-

 

NEED UKMO ON BOARD AT 144 tonight- & 00z...

 

S

[Ali1977]

Ens are looking great

[SMU]

With regards to the stratosphere-

 

Its totally the wrong thing to do to remove links/ images to the strat from this thread- As people are learning all the time & images will help that process & well as introduce people to thought of including it in their thought processes-

 

Its very straight forward- we have 3 threads already live.

 

All there needs be is-

General model discussion- which includes the usual links/banter/ stratosphere anything goes type posts

 

Indepth model thread

Indepth Stratosphere thread.

 

Job done.

 

S

 

PS cra**y 06z Ensembles- nothing like the ECM-  11/12/18 are the only ones of slight interest.

Lets hope the GFS is as useless as it was on the last eastwerly set up which was Feb last year....

Edited January 1, 2014 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

 PS cra**y 06z Ensembles- nothing like the ECM-  11/12/18 are the only ones of slight interest.Lets hope the GFS is as useless as it was on the last eastwerly set up which was Feb last year....

And the ecm op was very isolated on that occasion aswell

[IDO]

^^^ Yes the Strat thread is a bit intimidating; not unlike an advanced technical course for Meteorology. Would feel superfluous to the high quality in depth analysis from many of the experts. A place to dip in and awe at the knowledge.

 

The 06z GEFS is a step away from the ECM with a very poor FI:

 

No signal for the cooler trend to be sustained and the snow chances are one of the poorest ens for a while.

[Timmytour]

Taking a look back at a year ago..... here's a not untypical post....

 

'Frosty', on 01 Jan 2013 - 12:45, said]

i'm just looking at FI for the time being as the next week to 10 days looks dull as dirty dish water, glad to see the meto 16-30 day outlook is offering slightly stronger hints of a marked change to colder and more wintry weather, if it fails to happen, january will be a mild damp squib since the first half is already nailed on to be milder and drier than average

Yes there were differences to this year, but it goes to show how winter can't be ruled out too quickly.

We're now on 122 pages of posts which has taken over two weeks to get to. On the 8th January alone last year. 7 days after Frosty's post, there were over 60 pages of posts!!  

[johnholmes]

In the immediate future, like the next 3-9 hours. Quite an interesting low with largish falls ahead of it, 7+mb per 3 hours. A not totally suitable 00z ascent at Watnall.

But possible wet snow for higher Peak District levels and parts of the Pennines, along with Snowdonia is a possibility? Die to latent heat extraction with moderate rain-about a 30% risk above 1500ft I would think maybe 1000ft for further north on the Pennines.

[Frosty.]

Taking a look back at a year ago..... here's a not untypical post....

 

Yes there were differences to this year, but it goes to show how winter can't be ruled out too quickly.

We're now on 122 pages of posts which has taken over two weeks to get to. On the 8th January alone last year. 7 days after Frosty's post, there were over 60 pages of posts!!

not this frosty..this is frosty 2.0..the new optimistic upgrade

Edited January 1, 2014 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

Hope you are correct John, V heavy rain here atm we will see... Dp should start to drop a little later, reports of sleet in Wales.

 

Temp 4.6c

Dp 3.7c

Wind Chill 0.2.

[lassie23]

With regards to the stratosphere-

 

Its totally the wrong thing to do to remove links/ images to the strat from this thread- As people are learning all the time & images will help that process & well as introduce people to thought of including it in their thought processes-

 

Its very straight forward- we have 3 threads already live.

 

All there needs be is-

General model discussion- which includes the usual links/banter/ stratosphere anything goes type posts

 

Indepth model thread

Indepth Stratosphere thread.

 

Job done.

 

S

 

PS cra**y 06z Ensembles- nothing like the ECM-  11/12/18 are the only ones of slight interest.

Lets hope the GFS is as useless as it was on the last eastwerly set up which was Feb last year....

Plus any large changes in the stratosphere, can change the weather patterns, which in turn change the models. All connected!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My quick two pennies worth....sun has gone a bit mad, new moon, the atmosphere now feeling effects...models changing their outlook at short notice.  Expect more cold upgrades/consolidation

 

BFTP

Edited January 1, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST