Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Polar Maritime]

The Polar Vortex is looking more disrupted with each run, heights slowly pushing up into Greenland blocking the Atlantic, Jet sinking south all nice trends to see.

 

Edited December 31, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[fergieweather]

high-res PPN discrimination looks interesting indeed for some snow across parts of southern/southern-central England on Sat on N/NW side of low with passing entrainment of colder air. A pretty strong signal. And with that: all the best for 2014 :-)

[Tim Bland]

Cheers Frosty - always look forward to your optimistical ramping updates  - anyway before I sign off here's another fabulous snow risk chart.

 

uksnowrisk.png

 

All the best for 2014.

 

Ian

Boom! Let's all meet at the top of Ben Nevis for some sleet! Happy new year everyone

[shaky]

high-res PPN discrimination looks interesting indeed for some snow across parts of southern/southern-central England on Sat on N/NW side of low with passing entrainment of colder air. A pretty strong signal. And with that: all the best for 2014 :-)

brilliant stuff fergie!!does it look like happening during during daylight hours or night time!!also can you post any pics!!

[That ECM]

Here's to a wintry start to the new year. Have a good one.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just had a sharp storm, internet knocked out and temp plummeted....heating on higher.  I think some interesting changes are now afoot, I F mentioning snow for some on Sat???

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

Hope everyone enjoyed their New Year celebrations, if truth be told I love Xmas but find another year ticking by rather traumatic!

 

Just catching up with the last GFS of 2013, interesting to the ne but flatter further west, that's enough said about that bah humbug run! In terms of Fergies post you can see here on the T96hrs fax chart the possible interest:

 

 

North of the triple point, it looks like the winds slacken out which would help, still at that range the track could change so I wouldn't view this as a certainty.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hope everyone enjoyed their New Year celebrations, if truth be told I love Xmas but find another year ticking by rather traumatic!

 

Just catching up with the last GFS of 2013, interesting to the ne but flatter further west, that's enough said about that bah humbug run! In terms of Fergies post you can see here on the T96hrs fax chart the possible interest:

 

fax96s.gif

 

North of the triple point, it looks like the winds slacken out which would help, still at that range the track could change so I wouldn't view this as a certainty.

 

Yeah, 150 miles further N please lol

[nick sussex]

Yeah, 150 miles further N please lol

You never know! the track of that could easily change, could go further south aswell though! It's perhaps a little excitement for some areas and given the dismal lack of anything wintry over the last few weeks it would be nice for a few flakes to fall.

 

Unfortunately it won't last long with the next low moving in on Sunday but at this point even a few hours of falling snow would be akin to a success!

[mike Meehan]

Hope everyone enjoyed their New Year celebrations, if truth be told I love Xmas but find another year ticking by rather traumatic!

 

Just catching up with the last GFS of 2013, interesting to the ne but flatter further west, that's enough said about that bah humbug run! In terms of Fergies post you can see here on the T96hrs fax chart the possible interest:

 

fax96s.gif

 

North of the triple point, it looks like the winds slacken out which would help, still at that range the track could change so I wouldn't view this as a certainty.

Hasn't anybody some nice charts to look at?

[Spah1]

Don't post often, don't have the knowledge to but avid reader.

Happy New Year all !!!

[nick sussex]

Hasn't anybody some nice charts to look at?

You've lost me! oh do you mean is that fax chart the best we could come up with! yes that's about as exciting as it gets, the GFS 18hrs run was yet another bitter disappointment.

 

It's like the eastern USA is eating steak and chips and western Europe is feeding on budget hamburgers!

[Cal]

You've lost me! oh do you mean is that fax chart the best we could come up with! yes that's about as exciting as it gets, the GFS 18hrs run was yet another bitter disappointment.

 

It's like the eastern USA is eating steak and chips and western Europe is feeding on budget hamburgers!

 

 

Happy New Year to you Nick, thanks for the entertaining updates throughout the year. Seems like the good old US of A is having their peas & onions to go with that Chips n Steak with a dollop of black pepper sauce (hmmm!), what goes around comes around  for the final half i hope!...

[cheeky_monkey]

You've lost me! oh do you mean is that fax chart the best we could come up with! yes that's about as exciting as it gets, the GFS 18hrs run was yet another bitter disappointment. It's like the eastern USA is eating steak and chips and western Europe is feeding on budget hamburgers!

for me it is the other way around im back in the uk and im loving the mild and no snow and im happy too see it continue until i return to the freezer in a weeks time...im really enjoying the budget burgers got sick of steak and chips

[TwisterGirl81]

You've lost me! oh do you mean is that fax chart the best we could come up with! yes that's about as exciting as it gets, the GFS 18hrs run was yet another bitter disappointment.It's like the eastern USA is eating steak and chips and western Europe is feeding on budget hamburgers!

Eww I think I'll stick to my veggie burger.In regards to charts, I love snow as much as the next person but I'll take the current weather over a high slap bang over the top of us in winter weeks on end although we could do with some drying out...I find all these storms really interesting although the storm of 23rd December 2013 was the best I experienced so far in many years, although it's a saving grace there wasn't much leaves left on trees, I see the gale for New Year's Day and Friday seem to have been down graded slightly going by the 18z at least for my area in Devon.Mondays storm could be interesting...Happy new year Edited January 1, 2014 by TwisterGirl81

[sundog]

All ive been on is stale bread and water and plenty of water at that lol, Heres to something more tasty for the second half of winter hopefully at some point.

 

Happy new year to all especially to those who give very informative posts on this thread and site.

[bobbydog]

its coming........ just believe........ it will happen....... happy snow year!!!!!!

[Mucka]

Quite amusing output this morning so far with UKMO and GFS going in completely different directions with how they handle the Scandinavian ridge - GFS going for stronger ridging still and UKMO doing the total opposite.

By 120h there is a marked difference.

 

 

So GFS 18z wasn't a rogue run since the 00z has continued it as a trend this morning. It will be interesting to see which way the other models go.

 

UKMO/GFS 144 comparison.

 

 

Edit

 

GEM 144 is somewhere in between UKMO and GFS

 

 

Interesting end to GFS hi res part of the run though the heights to the North and East are quickly evaporate into low res.

 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Mucka

[shaky]

Quite amusing output this morning so far with UKMO and GFS going in completely different directions with how they handle the Scandinavian ridge - GFS going for stronger ridging still and UKMO doing the total opposite.

By 120h there is a marked difference.

 

 

So GFS 18z wasn't a rogue run since the 00z has continued it as a trend this morning. It will be interesting to see which way the other models go.

 

UKMO/GFS 144 comparison.

 

hopefully ecm will be better than the ukmo!!hopefully we still have a chance of snow on saturday!!

[Mucka]

Welcome to 2014 everybody. A New Year and some new developments, from GFS at least. Fascinatingly the ensembles back the Op and several are more bullish about building heights to our NE.

 

 

That is not the only nice trend though. The other is that more are going for a stronger Atlantic ridge. Very interesting times but is GFS on to something or on something?

One fly in the ointment though, even if the GFS is on the money with the trend, is that it wants to build the Euro high instead of sink the trough from here which means it will be difficult to pull in colder uppers - if we could get low pressure into Europe from the mid range we could actually have a cold spell in sight, again assuming GFS is actually onto something. IFS and BUTS 

That UKMO sure doesn't look very inviting in comparison.

Edited January 1, 2014 by Mucka

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1250/ECH1-144_ybf4.GIF

Last nights ECM at t144

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7860/ECH1-144_rox9.GIF

This mornings ECM at T144

Note the low out west. Consistency from the ECM.

I have heard it's the ECM New Years resolution. I'll give it until about 6.30 this evening.

[bluearmy]

Yeah, 150 miles further N please lol

someone likes you cc ! (Until it changes again!)

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9476/ECH1-240_xya5.GIF

Chart of the year!

[Blizzardof82]

The difference at 240Hrs Gfs Vs Ecm.

 

[bluearmy]

Wake Steve up! It's a murr sausage!!

in reality, unlikely. It occurs because ECM over amplifies the ridge to our west and that little wedge of 1020mb at T192 helps prevent the jet from flattening. we saw this exact same run a couple days ago and the control went on to develop a snowy easterly so no surprise to see the day 10 output . There were bound to be some ens members showing this type of solution so it's not impossible but it remains an unlikely one. (Note that the murr sausage is the kind of block that can survive in a general mobile flow).

Looking again, it's a bit more wedge than sausage but the elongation is what's relevant. Overall, across the nwp, with the Canadian vortex lifting well nw of where its been, this is not an impossible evolution but one where things have to land just right for us to benefit down the line.

Edited January 1, 2014 by bluearmy