Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Methuselah]

Tomorrow afternoon when you wake up from your hangover, the polar vortex will be forecast to split and a cold spell will be forecast for mid January. Or is that  the drink talking.

Russian Standard humour?

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the last report of the 300 or so I have produced through 2013. It is taken from my website using as usual the data supplied by the NWP for Tuesday December 31st 2013.

 

All models maintain the unsettled and sometimes thoroughly wet and windy conditions over the next week or so as Low pressure continues to move into the UK from the Atlantic repeatedly over the next 7 days or so with strong to gale SW or West winds on occasion. Temperatures will stay largely close to average with some short colder slots when some of the showery spells could produce some snow over the higher hills at times.

 

GFS shows a drier interlude as more of a ridge crosses West to East over the middle of next week with some drier and brighter weather for all areas before the weather slides back downhill again late next week and through the latter stages of the run. With higher pressure closer to the South than of late the rain amounts would lessen overall with the heaviest and most persistent precipitation reverting towards more NW areas in temperatures close to average for early to mid January.

 

UKMO shows deep Low pressure just off NW Scotland next Monday with a strong to gale force WSW flow over Britain with rain or showers affecting all areas through the early part of next week in average temperatures.

 

GEM shows pressure building next week after the deep Low early in the week steadily fills. Early heavy rains at the beginning of the week die out steadily later with dry and brighter conditions while maintaining basically quite average temperatures but with an increased risk of night frost.

 

NAVGEM also shows Low pressure up to the North slow moving and filling steadily next week so that by soon after midweek the weather becomes less wet with showers dying back towards western coasts as High pressure builds to the Southwest and Southeast.

 

ECM tonight shows a transformation tonight with pressure rising steadily next week as Low pressure steadily fills to the North next week as it moves away East. By the end of the week High pressure has built strongly over the UK with frost and freezing fog the main issues with some pleasantly bright and sunny days where fog clears,

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show an unsettled pattern for the next few weeks with an increase in length of some drier spells in between the rain as we approach next week. There is no real sign of any generally cold conditions though things may trend somewhat colder overall than currently.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to flow East across the Atlantic close to the South of Britain. The trend is to keep the flow well South over Europe late in the output with a push North of the flow over the Atlantic towards Iceland later in week 2.

 

In Summary tonight there is still good support for a slow down or a cessation of the Atlantic train of Low pressure. The ECM's operational run is at the extreme of hope I feel but there is other good evidence for something drier and brighter later next week with temperatures not likely to be particularly high away from areas of frost and fog which may develop as a result of higher pressure and lighter winds.

 

***********************MAY I WISH ALL AT NETWEATHER A HAPPY NEW YEAR**************************

Edited December 31, 2013 by Gibby

[Froze were the Days]

In my eyes still can't see much change in the current pattern, just minor 'tweaks' in the jet here and there but the overall theme looks pretty similar in FI (10 days or so) - let's hope we get something better in the New Year to look at as the ECM has been plain tedious to follow the last few weeks. Desperate times.

Happy New Year all!

Edited December 31, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[Summer Sun]

It looks like the ECM Op is overdoing the high pressure at day 9 and 10

 

Op

 

 

Ensemble

 

 

Either way we should start and see some longer drier periods developing later next week if ECM is right

[lassie23]

It looks like the ECM Op is overdoing the high pressure at day 9 and 10

 

Op

 

 

Ensemble

 

 

Either way we should start and see some longer drier periods developing later next week if ECM is right

People really could do with some drier weather, what with all the flooding, but more rain seems to be the model message tonight. I  thought stormy mild winters were a thing of the past, but they still crop up every two or three years, which is far better than when they were the norm i guess.

[phil nw.]

No real change to the Atlantic pattern showing in the 12Z runs with that persistent lobe of low heights to our nw.

Anyway let's hope for something different later in January.

 

Meanwhile whatever your preferences i give my best wishes for a very happy 2014 to you all.

[Purga]

An indicator of temps easing down from the ECM 12z ENS as a bit of cold cheer for the NY.

 

 

Most importantly though - A Very Happy New Year to All you good folks whatever the weather may bring!

Edited December 31, 2013 by Purga

[SMU]

Eyes down for the last GFS of the year- lets hope its been on the mulled wine

 

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z perturbations have some beautiful cold solutions with snow fests and severe frosts with ice days..and the 12z mean eventually trends cold with max temps not much above freezing... i'm searching high and low for winter and I think I found it..P12 makes it all look oh so easy but it's worth sharing this peach with you all on this New Years Eve cheers to everyone involved on Netweather, mildies and coldies.HAPPY NEW YEAR 

[MrSunshine]

Eyes down for the last GFS of the year- lets hope its been on the mulled wine

 

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR

 

Happy New Year Steve and indeed all Net Weather members. Some how I can't see these models changing any time soon, we just seem stuck with cool, wet & at times windy weather. I think we've been spoilt over the last 3 or 4 winters. I hope I'm wrong and that we have a belting last two thirds of winter 2013/14.

[lorenzo]

Here we go last pub run of the year ( been at the pub in my kitchen, what happened to raving at New Year, think Pete Tong getting an MBE says it all about that !

 

Here's a couple of random picks from the ECM Control Run, Control runs seem to be the source of most of the enjoyment of late. Helluva stormy December and very envious of the temps being achieved in the NE USA. Wow !

 

 

Wishing everyone who is as obsessed as I am with the weather a fantastic New Year celebrations and a healthy and prosperous 2014.

 

 

 

 

[Mucka]

Happy New year one and all.

 

GFS 120h building a weak block to the NE.

 

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123118/gfsnh-0-126.png?18

 

Interesting developments over Svalbard

 

S

[lassie23]

Only been a member of this forum since December 27th this year, so I haven't got to know anybody yet, but it doesn't stop me from wishing all members here a very  happy, healthy, snowy, cold, northern blocked beasterly new year.

[swfc]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123118/gfsnh-0-126.png?18

 

Interesting developments over Svalbard

 

S

Indeed steve.Looks transient tho dont you think?Altho it has appeared from nowhere !

[TSNWK]

A very merry and healthy new year one and all, including mildies

Well the low over the states we have been watching all day is there again and very little change in my eyes on this run, however what is interesting is the Build of heights over Svalbard which have extended over to Greenland around 150... Big difference there.. No idea how this run is going to play out..

Edited December 31, 2013 by TSNWK

[Mucka]

I know it's only NAVGEM but it is interesting in the context of the GFS 18z

 

[swfc]

A very merry and healthy new year one and all, including mildies

Well the low over the states we have been watching all day is there again and very little change in my eyes on this run, however what is interesting is the Build of heights over Svalbard which have extended over to Greenland around 150... Big difference there.. No idea how this run is going to play out..

If the low at 174 hrs disrupts it mighnt be a good run from the pub run and may even slide south east!!!

[Frosty.]

As most of us are looking for a cold outlook, there is a colder few days coming up as we head into the weekend, the Gfs 18z op run shows saturday looking cold across most of the uk with temps barely above freezing and wintry showers around with widespread overnight frost and ice...Enjoy your Celebrations guys

[TSNWK]

The difference between gfs and ECM at 240 are exceptional even for that range. ECM has us under a chilly uk hgh, GFS has us under a lobe of the vortex again...

Edited December 31, 2013 by TSNWK

[Ali1977]

SWW slowly getting closer, still in FI though...hopefully changes from this May start showing in the charts...

[swfc]

Even tho the 850s arnt great on the 18z in fi what does the effects of the pv lobe being over the uk bring???thanks in advance

[TSNWK]

Funny 18z. Held my interest during high rees with the build of those heights over Svalbard which then ridged over to Greenland. The heights were no match for the vortex... And low res was how its been recently with lobes of the vortex thrown towards us, it does end on pleasing note, I look forward to frostys updates on that.

All the best.

ThamesStreamerNorthWestKent...

Happy new year

[Iceaxecrampon]

As most of us are looking for a cold outlook, there is a colder few days coming up as we head into the weekend, the Gfs 18z op run shows saturday looking cold across most of the uk with temps barely above freezing and wintry showers around with widespread overnight frost and ice...Enjoy your Celebrations guys

Cheers Frosty - always look forward to your optimistical ramping updates  - anyway before I sign off here's another fabulous snow risk chart.

 

 

All the best for 2014.

 

Ian

[Jason T]

Well amongst the c Rap weather so far this winter, I love this thread and I would just like to wish you all a very happy new year. Whatever you're doing tonight enjoy yourselves and take care. See you in 2014.