Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[nick sussex]

I think you & I just post the same stuff with a few different words thrown in -

 

S

We're part of the Borg collective! I'm just a bit more theatrical Steve, as you can see from some of my recent tirades and my constant use of film analogies especially when the output is getting on my nerves!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yup, the positive temp anomalies for those areas have remained a striking point in EC32 as far as it's output stretches. V interesting set-up (appreciate not for folk after snow!).

All thanks to that Euro high Ian.

The terrible twosome (Euro high/Greeny PV) are killing winter for most of Europe!

[Joe Levy]

We're part of the Borg collective! I'm just a bit more theatrical Steve, as you can see from some of my recent tirades and my constant use of film analogies especially when the output is getting on my nerves!

Resistance is futile (to the PV). Not really of course, I just wanted to say that line

[Fozfoster]

Why would you write off 2013?  Just because over the last few years we have had snow in and around December does not mean that we are going to get it every year.  In years gone by I can remember damp and dull Christmas's, not even a frost, and not even any snow in the New Year.  At least we can say like 'one member' said we have had a  memorable Christmas in more way than one, with the flooding and gales, and we will be talking about it years to come. I'm sure if by the end of February we have not had any snow,  then I will then say that the winter has not been to the "coldies" liking. There has been plenty to talk about on here anyway, certainly not boring at all.  Give it a chance.  Happy New Year to you All

ITS A JOKE!!! end of year and all that!

[Bristawl Si]

Yup, the positive temp anomalies for those areas have remained a striking point in EC32 as far as it's output stretches. V interesting set-up (appreciate not for folk after snow!).

So it's 'official' then - a mild and wet winter 2013/14. Oh well, there's always next Winter!

[A.J]

alllllllrighty then, a few somewhat eccentric posts creeping into the thread....back to the output discussion we go.......

[Duane S.]

Why would you write off 2013?  Just because over the last few years we have had snow in and around December does not mean that we are going to get it every year.  In years gone by I can remember damp and dull Christmas's, not even a frost, and not even any snow in the New Year.  At least we can say like 'one member' said we have had a  memorable Christmas in more way than one, with the flooding and gales, and we will be talking about it years to come. I'm sure if by the end of February we have not had any snow,  then I will then say that the winter has not been to the "coldies" liking. There has been plenty to talk about on here anyway, certainly not boring at all.  Give it a chance.  Happy New Year to you All

 

 

[Stuie]

Why would you write off 2013?  Just because over the last few years we have had snow in and around December does not mean that we are going to get it every year.  In years gone by I can remember damp and dull Christmas's, not even a frost, and not even any snow in the New Year.  At least we can say like 'one member' said we have had a  memorable Christmas in more way than one, with the flooding and gales, and we will be talking about it years to come. I'm sure if by the end of February we have not had any snow,  then I will then say that the winter has not been to the "coldies" liking. There has been plenty to talk about on here anyway, certainly not boring at all.  Give it a chance.  Happy New Year to you All

 

.... 2014 tomorrow

[Blizzardof82]

Why would you write off 2013?  Just because over the last few years we have had snow in and around December does not mean that we are going to get it every year.  In years gone by I can remember damp and dull Christmas's, not even a frost, and not even any snow in the New Year.  At least we can say like 'one member' said we have had a  memorable Christmas in more way than one, with the flooding and gales, and we will be talking about it years to come. I'm sure if by the end of February we have not had any snow,  then I will then say that the winter has not been to the "coldies" liking. There has been plenty to talk about on here anyway, certainly not boring at all.  Give it a chance.  Happy New Year to you All

I guess he was writing it off as it ends in 13 hours?

[A.J]

*ahem*........^^^^^^^^    

 

let's all make a new year's resolution to actually adhere to forum guidelines and actually post something remotely on topic....I thank you

[Ali1977]

SSW still looking good or atleast SW, are the longer range models likely to pick this up yet? is it possible for a sudden swing to blocking to show up when stratospheric warming occurs?

[Captain Shortwave]

Why would you write off 2013?  Just because over the last few years we have had snow in and around December does not mean that we are going to get it every year.  In years gone by I can remember damp and dull Christmas's, not even a frost, and not even any snow in the New Year.  At least we can say like 'one member' said we have had a  memorable Christmas in more way than one, with the flooding and gales, and we will be talking about it years to come. I'm sure if by the end of February we have not had any snow,  then I will then say that the winter has not been to the "coldies" liking. There has been plenty to talk about on here anyway, certainly not boring at all.  Give it a chance.  Happy New Year to you All

Considering 2013 has 13 hours left, I think it's a safe bet 

We are getting perilously close to the abyss for the first half of January here. The polar vortex over Canada doing it's best Dr Who impression and regenerating back to full strength. We need a wedge of heights to deflect the strengthening jet or at least enough amplification upstream to get some Arctic air over the UK before the weather goes Pete Tong again.

[Polar Maritime]

I must say GFS is looking much more Wintry towards the end of run with cold -7/8 850s over much of the North and certainly cold enough for widespread snowfall with incoming Atlantic Systems being pulled in on much colder PM airflow. Then eventually a slack Northerly, way out but something of wintry interest.

 

Edited December 31, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[bobbydog]

Poor in what way?

Erm,complete lack of Northern blocking,postive NAO,Euro high.....

 

but the 1st week of jan (which incidentally starts tomorrow) is hardly going to change much from one run to the next, therefore its not poor, its showing what will happen.

 

i thought it was a well established opinion that its the second half of jan where we are looking for pattern change

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

but the 1st week of jan (which incidentally starts tomorrow) is hardly going to change much from one run to the next, therefore its not poor, its showing what will happen.

 

i thought it was a well established opinion that its the second half of jan where we are looking for pattern change

Hope so Bobby.

I think im getting frustrated to be honest,i just cant see a way out of this for the life of me.

Maybe if and when the models start to sniff a warming up in the strat there will be a sudden change in what we are seeing.

Lets hope so!

[MPG]

Why would you write off 2013?  Just because over the last few years we have had snow in and around December does not mean that we are going to get it every year.  In years gone by I can remember damp and dull Christmas's, not even a frost, and not even any snow in the New Year.  At least we can say like 'one member' said we have had a  memorable Christmas in more way than one, with the flooding and gales, and we will be talking about it years to come. I'm sure if by the end of February we have not had any snow,  then I will then say that the winter has not been to the "coldies" liking. There has been plenty to talk about on here anyway, certainly not boring at all.  Give it a chance.  Happy New Year to you All

Think you missed the point. Its new years eve today....

[bluearmy]

The updated London ens show the period 8th to 13th to be almost dry, pretty calm and cool. Trend to follow would indicate a possible return to a more mobile pattern but too early to draw that conclusion as yet.

[bobbydog]

Hope so Bobby.

I think im getting frustrated to be honest,i just cant see a way out of this for the life of me.

Maybe if and when the models start to sniff a warming up in the strat there will be a sudden change in what we are seeing.

Lets hope so!

 

 

well there does seem to be a wide range of options being thrown in by the end of each run. some positive, some not.

 

like the end of the 00z

 

 

no raging PV there, maybe positive signs for the end of jan.

though it could take another week of runs to see where we are going!

[jvenge]

Although not strictly UK related, have you lot seen the output the the US next week? Pretty much all models agreeing on another brutal cold shot for them. ECWMF performing well for the US this winter. GFS? Not so well, inclined to put things a little too far east.

 

I must say it's hard to recall such a wet festive period. I live on a hill and even I'm starting to see a lot of standing water now.

[nick sussex]

Although not strictly UK related, have you lot seen the output the the US next week? Pretty much all models agreeing on another brutal cold shot for them. ECWMF performing well for the US this winter. GFS? Not so well, inclined to put things a little too far east.

 

I must say it's hard to recall such a wet festive period. I live on a hill and even I'm starting to see a lot of standing water now.

Yes reading some of the State forecasts some areas may hit record lows! I have friends who live north of Toronto and its been unbelievably cold for weeks over there.the next brutal cold for them is brought about by a chunk of the PV dropping south into the eastern USA.

 

The ECM is most bullish about this with -5 850's almost into New Orleans! further north even areas like Georgia could see 850's of close to -20 towards the north of the State whilst here we're scratching around for even sub zero 850's!

[Purga]

Another relentlessly zonal run from gfs 06z with some coolish uppers over us in th meantime and ndeed in FI showing a deep trough over the UK

Uppers cold but surface temps, although below average, not good enough for snow in most of lowland Britain - to much mixing.

 

If the air was sourced from the Continent it would be a different story but it's not!

 

 

The jet is sinking ever southwards but there is little sign of any decent blocking to the north to help us.

 

 

 

Some may point to a snow chance in far FI

Which is nice to look at but in reality is very unlikely to verify and also would be a brief sleety affair for most.

Chins up though things can still and will change - eventually.

[bluearmy]

And the dropping so far south of those usa uppers can only bring them closer to the warmer uppers of the southern arm. The nett result will be another jet streak. However, as this cold pool then takes itself back north, it presents the option for the ridge to be thrown ne ahead of it if the track of the depression created is right. we will see.

Edited December 31, 2013 by bluearmy

[bobbydog]

there's always hope-

 

 

what happened 10 days later?............

Edited December 31, 2013 by bobbydog

[johnholmes]

Yes reading some of the State forecasts some areas may hit record lows! I have friends who live north of Toronto and its been unbelievably cold for weeks over there.the next brutal cold for them is brought about by a chunk of the PV dropping south into the eastern USA.

 

The ECM is most bullish about this with -5 850's almost into New Orleans! further north even areas like Georgia could see 850's of close to -20 towards the north of the State whilst here we're scratching around for even sub zero 850's!

 

Nick an honest question for you

I am not clear which low you are talking of or indeed where when you speak of the low needs to get as far inland...?

[Summer Sun]

Much better from the ensembles this morning with rainfall finally easing across the UK giving places a welcome break and a chance to dry out January 7th onwards looks to be the turning point