January 2014 CET forecasts

[March Blizzard]

January opens up with 7.6c to the 1st4.1c above the 61 to 90 average

Or to put it another way: An Average January temperature above average! Edited January 2, 2014 by March Blizzard

[Summer Sun]

7.6c to the 2nd

 

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

7.3c to the 3rd

 

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 4th

 

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 0.8C and maxima likely to reach close to 10C later this evening, we should see a drop to about 6.6C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.0C to the 6th (9.0)

7.2C to the 7th (8.2)

7.3C to the 8th (7.7)

7.0C to the 9th (4.8]

6.8C to the 10th (4.9)

6.7C to the 11th (5.9)

6.8C to the 12th (7.8]

 

A potentially very mild day tomorrow, but still well below any daily records.

[Milhouse]

Didnt realize we were running that far above average . GFS continues the relatively mild stuff but ECM would lead to a faster decline with some nighttime frosts.

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 5th

 

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[SomeLikeItHot]

6.8 again to the 6th.  +3.3 (61-90)

 

We are a whole degree colder than last year to the same date.

I will try and do an ensemble estimate going forward later today if I get some time.

[SomeLikeItHot]

6.8 to the 6th +3.3 anomaly (61-90)   +2.4 anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 6.8 and max likely around 10.0 should rise to 7.0 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days

7th    7.0 (8.4)

8th 7.2 (8.0)

9th 7.1 (6.8 )

10th 6.9 (5.1)

11th   6.7   (4.3)   +3.1 (61-90) +2.4 (81-10) 

 

15th 5.9  +2.4 (61-90) +1.6 (81-10)  

 

20th 4.8   +1.3 (61-90)   +0.4 (81-10)

 

22nd 4.6   +1.0  (61-90) +0.01  (81-10)

 

 

So Ensemble average trending to closer to average.  Towards the later parts of the month. Likely however is that we will get something warmer or alternatively much colder than projected above as particularly in the later parts it’s a blend of two potentially very different outcomes.  

Edited January 7, 2014 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

CET should be at about 7.1C, possibly 7.0C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

 

7.2C to the 8th (7.8]

7.3C to the 9th (8.1)

7.1C to the 10th (5.5)

6.7C to the 11th (3.2)

6.3C to the 12th (1.7)

6.1C to the 13th (3.9)

5.8C to the 14th (2.0)

 

Looks like we could hit the monthly peak on the 9th.

 

Here's how the current provisional CET values and the forecast values above compare to the historical records.

 

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.1 to the 6th +3.5 anomaly (61-90)   +2.7 anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 7.1 and max likely around 10.5 should rise to 7.2 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days . Then GFS 0z Ensemble mean.

8th   7.3 (8.8 )

9th   7.3 (7.7)    +3.7 (61-90) +3.0 (81-10) 

10th 7.1 (5.3)

11th    6.9   (4.3)

12th  6.5  (2.7)

 

15th  5.5  +2.0 (61-90) +1.2 (81-10)  

 

20th  4.1   +0.6 (61-90)   -0.3 (81-10)

 

23rd    3.8   +0.2  (61-90) -0.7  (81-10)

 

 

Marked switch to something much colder in the ensembles today as some convergence on a colder spell – GFS ensemble mean has some negative CET days around the 17-18th.

Edited January 8, 2014 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

7.2c to the 8th

 

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.2c to the 8th

 

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average

  +2.9 anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 5.4 and max likely around 8.5 should stay on 7.2 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days . Then GFS 0z Ensemble mean.

9th 7.2 (7.0)    

10th 7.0 (5.3)

11th   6.8   (4.8 )

12th 6.5 (3.1)

13th  6.4   (5.5)

 

15th 6.0  +2.5 (61-90) +1.7 (81-10)  

 

20th 5.0   +1.4 (61-90)   0.5 (81-10)

 

24rd 4.6   +0.9  (61-90) 0.1  (81-10)

 

 

A less cold set of ensembles today, with the cold pushed later and less support.

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 9th

 

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Tropical Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c is the current average temperature in Darlington up-to the 9th

[damianslaw]

I'd be interested to see how the CET compares with where we were at this stage in 2012 and 2013 which also saw very mild starts to the month. Other very mild starts to Jan occurred quite recently in 2005, 2007 and 2008 and going further back in 1989, 1990 and 2000.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6.5c is the current average temperature in Darlington up-to the 9th

 

not CET area but think I will be close for Jan, I went for 6.6C

[Summer Sun]

I'd be interested to see how the CET compares with where we were at this stage in 2012 and 2013 which also saw very mild starts to the month. Other very mild starts to Jan occurred quite recently in 2005, 2007 and 2008 and going further back in 1989, 1990 and 2000.

 

We are slightly down on Jan 2013 and 12

 

7.6C to the 9th in 2013

 

7.6C to the 9th in 2012 remarkably it was the same as 2013

 

7.1c to the 9th this year

Edited January 10, 2014 by Summer Sun

[AderynCoch]

January 2007 was 8.0C to the 9th and 8.3C to the 20th. I think the first half was the mildest on record at 8.1C.

 

Here it didn't drop below 5C at night until the 21st, and there was only one frost (23rd).

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 10th

 

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

Thanks for the response. As I thought slightly colder than this stage in 2007, 2012 and 2013. However, 2013 saw a marked drop from this point on. 2012 stayed preety mild until the latter few days. 2007 as noted was very mild indeed.

 

The next week looks fairly average - a little above in the south, so we should still be lagging behind 2007 in about 10 days time I suspect but the chances of a below average month are looking increasingly slim - but we have plenty of time left and a near average month could still be recorded, but the odds of an above average month are high.

[The PIT]

7.0c to the 10th

 

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average

Blimey and some people don't think this month is mild. Sunny Sheffield well below at 6.2C which normally indicates a big downward adjustment. My 6C punt is looking a bit sad at the moment despite next week being cooler.

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 11th

 

3.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

A minimum today of -1.7C, and maxima likely to reach around 6C, a drop to 6.4C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.3C to the 13th (5.3)

6.0C to the 14th (2.2)

6.1C to the 15th (7.0)

6.1C to the 16th (6.7)

6.1C to the 17th (6.1)

6.0C to the 18th (4.3)

6.9C to the 19th (3.2)

 

Today could be the first below average day of the month so far.

 

The period of December 1st to January 10th was (provisionally) the 10th mildest since the daily records began in 1772