January 2014 CET forecasts

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 18th

 

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

A minimum today of 3.5C and maxima likely to reach around 7C, we should remain on 6.2C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

 

6.1C to the 20th (4.3)

6.0C to the 21st (4.4)

6.0C to the 22nd (6.2)

6.0C to the 23rd (4.9)

5.9C to the 24th (4.1)

5.9C to the 25th (6.3)

5.9C to the 26th (6.5)

 

The 17th was (provisionally) another day more than 1 standard deviation above the 1772-2013 average.

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 19th

 

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

6.1c to the 20th

 

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[damianslaw]

Oh are we about to go under 6 degrees at long last? the CET has been remarkably static these past few days..

 

6 degrees is the mean temperature at which grass grows.. so we may see a bit of stunted early spring growth.

 

 I see a slow drop towards the months end, but should comfortably come in above 5 degrees I suspect - so an appreciably above average month, the 4th in the space of 7 months, quite a turn around compared to the April 2012 - June 2013 period.

 

The stats mentioned about mild first halves to winter being non- replicated to the same degree during second half is evidence the second half of winter on average is colder than the first half. As the days lengthen the cold strengthens goes the saying..

[Summer Sun]

My guess of 4.8c is looking too low again will be the 2nd month in a row I've gone too low potentially

[Lettucing Gutted]

I won't be surprised if we have the opposite situation of September 2006 for years to come.  Remember how September 2006 was not only an exceptionally warm September but it was also warmer than any month in between July 2006 and July 2010 and all Augusts in between 2004 and 2013.  In opposite fashion to this March 2013 is not just an exceptionally cold March but it's also colder than any month since December 2010 and all Februaries since 1996.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Summer Sun]

Below 6c for the first time this month I think

 

5.9c to the 21st

 

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

[Eugene]

6 degrees is the mean temperature at which grass grows.. so we may see a bit of stunted early spring growth.

 

lol don't think the past few days will help in the grass growth Damian, very frosty mornings, no early spring growth here as it isn't that mild, no silly max temp records gone this winter which is a good thing.

 

Ps gavin please use more modern average CET's in your mild biased posts please

[Summer Sun]

lol don't think the past few days will help in the grass growth Damian, very frosty mornings, no early spring growth here as it isn't that mild, no silly max temp records gone this winter which is a good thing.

 

Ps gavin please use more modern average CET's in your mild biased posts please

 

Hi Eugene, I can only use the 61 to 90 average as thats what the met office still use

 

I don't know what the 81 to 10 averages are to each day other wise I could use both

 

[Methuselah]

Hi Eugene, I can only use the 61 to 90 average as thats what the met office still use

 

I don't know what the 81 to 10 averages are to each day other wise I could use both

 

And anyway, it doesn't alter the reality...

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 22nd

 

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 23rd

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min of 2.0C and maxima of around 6.5C, should see the CET drop to 5.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at

5.9C to the 25th (8.2)

5.9C to the 26th (5.5)

5.8C to the 27th (3.4)

5.7C to the 28th (4.5)

5.7C to the 29th (3.6)

5.5C to the 30th (1.1)

5.4C to the 31st (2.0)

 

I'd put the pre-correction value at between 5.1C and 5.7C at the moment, so still a small chance of going sub 5C after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

Min of 2.0C and maxima of around 6.5C, should see the CET drop to 5.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at

5.9C to the 25th (8.2)

5.9C to the 26th (5.5)

5.8C to the 27th (3.4)

5.7C to the 28th (4.5)

5.7C to the 29th (3.6)

5.5C to the 30th (1.1)

5.4C to the 31st (2.0)

 

I'd put the pre-correction value at between 5.1C and 5.7C at the moment, so still a small chance of going sub 5C after corrections.

 

Looks like I'll be slightly too low at this stage with 4.8c going to be close all will depend on how this cold spell / snap develops next week

[summer blizzard]

Hope it ends up a little above that so that corrections can put me spot on.

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 24th

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

Slight rise today

 

Up to 5.9c to the 25th

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 3.1C with maxima likely to reach about 8C, so remaining on 5.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

5.8C to the 27th (3.9)

5.8C to the 28th (5.9)

5.8C to the 29th (4.5)

5.6C to the 30th (1.6)

5.5C to the 31st (0.7)

 

A likely finish between 5.2C and 5.7C, so maybe 4.8C to 5.6C after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

Minimum today of 3.1C with maxima likely to reach about 8C, so remaining on 5.9C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

5.8C to the 27th (3.9)

5.8C to the 28th (5.9)

5.8C to the 29th (4.5)

5.6C to the 30th (1.6)

5.5C to the 31st (0.7)

 

A likely finish between 5.2C and 5.7C, so maybe 4.8C to 5.6C after corrections.

 

4.8c would see me getting the temperature right for the first time ever

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 26th

 

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

5.9C to the 27th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

[Summer Sun]

5.9C to the 28th

 

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is 4.7C while maxima look like reaching the a little below 6C, so a drop 5.8C is possible tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

5.7C to the 30th (2.8]

5.7C to the 31st (4.0)

 

No real chance of going sub 5C now. 5.1 to 5.6C most likely after corrections.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Well, Jan 2012 came out at 5.45*C to be precise.  Hadley is on 5.86 unadjusted as of today.  Will probably finish on 5.65-5.7 before adjustments.  So, after adjustments, its going to be tight as to whether we see the warmest January since 2008 or not.  We probably will, though will only end up marginally above the Jan 2012 CET.  The warmest January for six years is looking a distinct possibility now.

 

January 2014 may have been mild overall, but if January finishes at 5.5 after adjustments, the average January CET for the first half of the 2010s, will be 3.9*C.  Put 2009 into that equation, and the last six years put together will have averaged 3.75*C.  So despite a mild January 2014, we will still have been about average in January for the last six years put together.  So if the next five years average out at something close to this figure in January, then the 2010s looks set to be an average decade overall for January.

 

So at the end of this month the 12 month rolling annual CET will stand at approx 9.73*C.  It is looking likely now that unless we get some absolute cold weather in the late winter and during the spring the rolling annual CET will be back over 10*C by June.  The rolling 12 month annual CET bottomed out at 8.93*C at the end of May last year.  Just very similar to after 2010, it looks very likely that it will be back to well over 10*C by the middle of 2014.